Deep Value Letter - Banner Ad / Email Capture

Friday, April 15, 2005

Too bullish too soon.Especially with ibm..big blue has left me blue this week as the may 90 calls have gone from dep out of the money to impossibly deep out of the money.Fortunately this weeks decline in starbucks allowed me to close that position at more than enough profit to compensate for dancing with dinosaurs .closed the pfizer clalls for a decent gain this morning as well.SBux is one I wouldn't moind shorting again in the mid 50's if bear sterns upgrade can push the shares that high.A 40 multiple for a 5% grower is just too tempting a target.

Earnings hopes seem to be turning to earnings fears this week. The miss by harley davidson sent a clear message to the market that the days of counting on the so called consistent growers at premium valuations are coming to an end. The numbers just don't massage the way they did in the good ol days. Harley was always seen as somewhat insulated from economic swings by the consistent demand for the throaty roar of the open road. Now, it seems that they have shipped many more bikes to dealers than were ever registered by new owners and the only throaty roar is from growth funds puking upthe shares.Citicorp and Ge both exceeded estimates but the list of misses to the downside is getting longer by the hour.SUNW,RFMD,MAT,AVY and GWW are all off bif today on earnings misses. You thought march madness was interesting. Trying to build a bracket of earnings winners is getting more difficult all the time as the traditional 1 and 2 seed growth stocks fail to advance.

In spite of this, for the short term I m still bullish. The twin declines in oil and interest rates should give us a little upwards push.The SP500 is 2 standard devaitions below its average, and the vix and vxo are both above their 2 std-dev range. Past occurences of this have been infrequent and very bullish over the next trading month.I dont think it wll be a spectacular rally but we should recover some of the ground lost since early march.I think that 1195-1200 on the sp500 and 2020-30 on the NAZZ composite will be the top of any short term rally in here and would have to revaluate the picture if we reach those levels. Volatilty has been climbing as earnings disappointments build and I think there is finally enough fear to launch a decent little rally. The longer term path of least resitance is still down, and I ll probably be looking to restablish some more shorts as we near the top of my ranges.

Semiconductors, drugs and media remain my hunting growund for new long ideas.The continued decline in shares of ATML has increased my appetite for the shares and I have been aggressively adding to positions. Their smart card business is growing at a 40%+ clip annualy and with the mastercard paypass ramping upthis quarter, this will continue if not acclerate.In the microcontroller business the book to bill is finally over 1. There is revenue growth across all areas of the comopany and margins improved by over 5% last year. On there 4th quarter conference call in feb they anticipated further margin improvement starting in the second half of the year. Wells Fargo has a 12 month target price of 5.25 and I think Im right there with them. The long term trends in hand held consumer electronics and smart cards are very much in ATML's favor.ATMl sels for 70% of sales,right around book and only two times net current assets.Its a buy it and forget it stock that should provide outsize gains when the semi conductor sector picks up.In media and entertainment DTV remains a favorite...rather than walk you through the whole analysis, I ll just reference the barrons article last week as outling the valuation and prospects for the satelllite tv leader. Drugs have moved up in recent days and I would hold longs but not I mention I exited the more leveraged pfe calls this morning. I also like the HELE JAN 25-30 call spread for the more aggressive types.HELE earns a 22% ROE and trades at 12 times.Street estimates are 2.35 this year and 2.90 in fiscal 06 with a price target of 20.With the stock at almost 28, the debit of 2.0 is all intinsic value with a discount of time premium for a good chance to double by January 06.

Since coming back from a fuddruckers lunch I find that the market has taken an enormous dump again, volatility has jumped 3% measured by the vix.Semiconductors are getting crushed with all the tech etfs down another 2-4% on the day.The NASDAQ new low list bears an eerie resemblance to my portfolios. should have had a beer or 12 with that burger.Close eyes,buy puke..just another day in the stock market.

Wednesday, April 13, 2005

trip report

Its spring in Lexington and the town braces for the annual invasion of horse racing aficionados, the gamblers and socialites alike descending on the town as once again the harbinger of brighter times ahead comes around on the annual calendar. Keeneland is open for business and the best horses; trainers and jockeys bring some of the worlds finest horse racing to this bucolic setting in the rolling horse lands of Kentucky. And from Chicago,new york,Maryland,ohio and other fine locations across the nation, the spec list after dark crew joins the throngs headed for northern Kentucky to partake in the spectacle.

It’s a quiet morning on the deck at the woodford reserve distillery. The air carries the scent of newly emerged spring fauna and sour mash. Those who have taken the tour mingle with new arrivals and all head for the picnic on the deck, a fine lunch amid the spectacular setting of this beautiful place tucked in a valley of rolling Kentucky bluegrass. One by one the men and women of the spec list after-dark crew arrive.oh,lets be honest, the men of the spec list after dark crew. With the exception of the effervescent editor form Chicago the women come along to make sure that the excessive amounts of testosterone and whiskey fueled ninnies don’t do anything too terribly stupid….the voodoo prof form Deltaville by way of Cincinnati, accompanied as always by the enigmatic and vibrantly delightful E; the king of patterns from queens, along with his sister the fashion princess of bloomies; Chesapeake Slim,sporting his usual half a hangover and subdued opinions; the cynical grail seeker from chi-town(as long as the grail is a copy of barrons and financial times every Saturday no matter how remote a locale we find ourselves in) with a new addition the delightful and oh so lovely charitable derivative, the tent owning trader also from Chicago with the stunningly beautiful and gracious new wife; the listmaster and the tsarina with their court including the queen mom and head page, and of course the handicapping horsemaster of Richmond Virginia and his bride the market mistress(market in question being of the farmers variety in Richmond).Most had arrived just this morning. The handicapper and slim had of course arrived the night before and had wide Guinness fueled discussion on matters vital to the world as we know it whilst listening to a surprisingly good Beatles cover band in one of Lexington’s finest little spots along main street.The handicapper, of course had the sense to go home. Slim, possessing no vehicle was waiting for the cynic and his consort to arrive to town and carry him back to the palace of la Quinta. Alone, in an unfamiliar town, there was of course only one course of action available..Switch from Guinness to bushmills (Lexington at is core is very Irish) and begin striking up conversations with all the shapely adorables in attendance. It was during such an encounter with a beautiful and buxom yet amazingly foul-mouthed coed ( little surprise our slim was in love and had already begun to think of her as his next ex-wife) when the charitable derivative arrived to the rescue. Whose rescue exactly, we will never know.

The new day dawn arrived brining with a day at the track. The band of erstwhile specs arrived at keenelands grandstands on a beautiful spring day, temperatures in the 70s, the sun shone brightly and the track ran fast. Conversations ran from sector rotation in sp 500 groups, volatility trades horse racing systems(in this the second year of keeneland adventures, remains the pattern kings “Bet the Pink Horse”, far outpacing all other attempts to game the ponies).Keeneland is a social event and the women wore birhgt dresses and amzingly stylish headgear, the flowers were starting to bloom in the infield, the crowd was excited and in the highest of spirits on this the seconf day of racing.We talked mingled,enjoyed cold beers and small bets and caught up on the past several months.Several of us came out ahead on the day, no one was foolish enough to bet too much with no edge and the one with an edge was smart enough to bet only the race where the edge was clear and walked outas always) a big winner on the day,enough Im sure to keep in pints of guiness and snappy ties for some small time to come.Now, if he had just answered our desperate calls to the clubhouse before the race……

Now the mad dash across Lexington to what we thought was the voodoo profs newest culinary find. Little did we know he and e had simply asked a track employee where a good place to eat was located in their fair town. Naturally they sent us 45 minutes across town to a beer and burger joint someone in their family doubtlessly owned.The Shamrock was a fine example of the genre however and while it was not up to the very high standards the prof has set in the past..It was food and the beer was cold. While not selected by zagats, we do give a three on the suggested by overweight toothless racetrack trash sweeper scale.

Then back to that shrine of horseracing, gamblers and Irishmen, McCarthy’s in downtown Lexington .A table in the back, a gorgeous spring evening, adult libations to spare and long conversations.Perfect. Someone really needs to start taping the first couple of hours of these gatherings as much brilliance is shared. Listening to Kevin Depew talk about the similarities between horse betting and trading is worth the cost of the trip in and of itself. Add the years of experience of a crossman,the sharp insight of mcnabb, the in-depth technology and trading genius of a goldcamp along with other combined great minds gathered there and much can be learned. Markets,racing,books,history,math,the list of subjects covered is vast.After the first couple of hours, theory gives way to war stories,lost loves and bad adventures and these bits of conversation are perhaps best never written anywhere for the sake of all concerned. It as at the turning point in the evening that I feel most sorry for the wives and girlfriends. They had believed they were in the company of poets and philosophers and to their horror find that they are, in fact, in the midst of a gathering of drunken degenerate gamblers. But they are good sports and allow us our fun, conversation and companionship with the bemused expressions of mothers riding herd on naughty little boys.

These gatherings have gone on since the second spec party when the afterdarkers were founded quite accidentally over a bottle of scotch and market talk in a hotel room late on Friday night in Weston Connecticut. The original group was small… ott, melvin, crossman,van giessen and a few select others who are no longer around. The gatherings have produced numerous modern legends, tales of skin head karaoke bars, purple pt cruisers,5th avenue Irish bars, out of the way bbq shacks, confused detours through the Bronx, sawdust dock bars,rush street snowstorms,poker games in the back of bars and more that we ve probably forgotten. We have feasted on seafood in md,backyard bbq in Chicago,bourbon and steaks in Kentucky.Much has been learned by all, fast and long-term friendships have been formed, trades found, opportunities shared and stories enjoyed. There is no doubt in my mind that the chair, while giving a slight frown of disapproval at the gambling and gamboling that goes on at these gatherings has to take some level in delight that his single idea of the spec list, an almost random thought at that, has taken a diverse group and created a tight circle of friends who have come to not only enjoy each others companies but to rely on each other as only the best of friends can do.As Mr Crossman soeloquently puts it, nights we ll never remember with friends we ll never forget. At each such gathering the chair must be and is toasted as the unknowing and unintended creator of the after dark group.

There are no criteria for membership other than declaring yourself to be a member. A fondness for good scotch, cold beer, and fine food coupled with a deep interest in financial markets does help however. I cannot imagine that to be found totally sober or unable to talk markets would be much fun at our get togethers. It is a diverse group both in geographics and interest. We have stock guys ,bond girls,options traders, futures speculators, quants(,looks around three times) chartists growth guys, value guys, traders, writers, editors, jocks, chain smokers. It grew out of and of course, is a part of the spec list. We all met through the list and are still on it. Some of us for many years now. There are more gatherings in the future, with blues sounding across the bay,angels flying in Chicago,baseball stadiums to be visited, and of course the annual grad gathering of specs in NYC. Bring your best off color stories, a bottle of your best booze and your knowledge along to the next one and join a great circle of friends.

Some observations from the weekend

Flying from Maryland, I had a layover in cinnci. I flew a regional jet out which flies lower than larger airplanes and was below the cloud cover most of the way. From this unique viewpoint I observed several interesting facts. First, in spite of claims to the contrary baseball is still the national pastime. Virtually every small town, village, larger city or suburban gathering of homes has at least one baseball diamond, clearly identifiable from 20,000 feet. Americans love their little league,legion ball and rec league softball. In contrast there not anywhere near as many football fields or soccer pitches outside the larger towns.

Second, the American economic spirit is in fine shape. The trucks are still rolling from the farms to the towns and cities, factories are manufacturing and commerce is occurring throughout the are plowing and planting, railroads are running and people are working. It cannot be measured by fed stats but the heart of American enterprise is the desire of its people to better their lives and the lives of those they love. From 20,000 feet on a clear day, this is very visible. The second leg into Lexington spotlighted the fact that northern Kentucky, particularly Lexington as one of the most beautiful in the country.

To gain a better understanding of emotions and markets,spend a day at the racetracks. Enjoy the races if you wish, but concentrate on watching the people.Its all there. Hopes, dreams, charts, tips,touts,deceptions,the small winner who gets overconfident and becomes a big loser, the big loser who swings for the fences to try to get even, the over leveraged and undercapitalized,rthe pros, the amateurs, the big scores and big blowups all playing out in real time along the rail. In EdSpec Vic talked off taking trainees to the track to observe their behavior. I would suggest that this is good advice and a great place to study human nature and emotions as applied to finance.
Racetrack hotdogs are ALMOST as good as ballpark dogs.
An irish bar and a group of good friends is one of the most delightful ways to spend an evening.
The best books you ll ever read are those suggested by friends.
The orioles can stil beat the Yankees. The Devil Rays and Tigers are another story.There is a powerful motivational lesson in this.

Finding a fellow hunter thompson fan, one who actually read his works before he blew the back of his head into a chivas regal glass is a rare and interestinf experience. Finding one who is also a spec is a three standard deviation event.

Ideas shared multiply.A group of specs sitting around sharing thoughts,philosophies and market approaches is a powerful event and all can learn much from each other.


just bought ibm may 90 calls..just looking for a quick bounce here,nothing huge but vol is picking up nicely....a little bounce up withincreased vol could net a quick 50% return in these...also..keep positions fairly small in this one, its much,much shorterthan I usually trade.most of my otm option positions are july, augustand sepright now, thanks ,mostly to my short positions, Im up 23% ytd tradingthis way. as of todays close....the tmas started moving today jumping as high as .17...another move in vix like we saw today will be a timeto look to get long for the short term.....

Monday, April 11, 2005

recent stuff I forgot to save

Having spent much of the weekend either in a car doing the turnpike shuffle..There is something about the barren wasteland of the New Jersey turnpike that is good for contemplative thinking..or waiting in Penn station Newark observing the by product of humanity whilst waiting for the listmaster to figure out the intricacies of the train schedule from Manhattan, I got a lot thinking and observing accomplished..for no particular reason I shares those thoughts…. There is something about a wedding that instills hope for humanity even in a cynical multiple divorced(but Im Not bitter) individual like myself. To see two people willing to risk the commitment to each other in what is an obvious celebration of hope over statistics causes on to realize exactly how optimistic a species we are… Speaking of weddings, what the spec list has put together let no man put asunder.For the wedding of a young man from Ohio to a girl from new jersey, there were no specs in attendance from Chicago,new york, Cincinnati and Maryland.There were as many specs making the trip to the wonderland of jersey as there were old college friends of the groom.The 4 of us would never have met had the chair not decide to create a franklonian forum for the exchange of idea and bbq recipes.Parts of the weekend felt like a small spec gathering..if,of course, it wasn't for the ceremony with all the flowers and blushing bridesmaids inserted in the middle……an options trader, a spread trader,pattern trader,trading software guy, and of course the token value guy, friendships born out of one mans desire to share his knowledge and experience…hats off to victor for creating a platform that has led to so many fast and long lasting friendships…. Upon arriving home, I witnessed the terps of Maryland rising above once again to almost knock off #2 North Carolina..this after beating their feared and dreaded nemesis duke twice this year.IN spite of these accomplishments for most of the year the team has played below expectations,losing to teams they should have beaten by 20 points or more.Why is that teams..or even traders..can rise above for the biggest challenges,Beat or scare the best teams in the country,,,trade though a market meltdown(or up),racking up gains and protecting capitol, but lose to the little sister of the poor, dropping large numbers on range bound days,selling bottoms and buying tops during calmer times?.What is the motivational force that causes us to rise above and how do we harness it for every day use? How does one gain the same focus and intensity that allows us to perform at our highest and best levels and bring it bear every game and every day? I have yet to find a problem that a good car, some open road, two packs of smokes and a big cup of 7-11 coffee(although the esteemed mr crossman insists that dunkin donuts is the better brand) and some stevie ray Vaughn cranked on the stereo cannot take the edge off the condition. It seems that there is cleansing about blasting down the road that makes the problems less serious that they seemed while ruminating behind a desk or in a sleep deprived apartment setting…loud music, open road seem to be the essence of affirming that life is still good.problems can always be overcome and there is something bright around the next bend..or if you re on the turnpike,at the next exit….rains end,markets turn, love returns, friends endure and the road truly does go on forever.At such times, smoking along, stevie ray cranking it out as only he could, the radar detector showing clear and no traffic around, it doesn't matter if value beats growth, if options should be bought or sold,how many ex-wives one is dragging about in albatross fashion through life,what matters is that the world is full of possibilities and opportunities, there's a solution for every problem, that the style that's suits you is the one that works,theres still music and open roads ahead in all areas of life….pass the keys,gas it up.Life goes on..and that's a good thing….. If one ever gets a chance to sit between james goldcamp and ryan Carlson while they discuss their travels around the globe..drop whatever you are doing and go.they sights and adventures of these two gentleman make for fascinating listening..kind of a natural geographic over cocktails In closing congratulations to the newly hitched Mr and Mrs Jason Thompson.Jason is a spec lister for some time now and it was great to see the obvious joy and pleasure they shared for each other…They were married Saturday in a stunningly beautiful ceremony.It was pleasure and honor to share the moment with them and wish them all happiness

feb 18

ah..come knew I was going to.... .driving into work this morning, a hawkish wind blowing off the bay, Im surprised to see swirling, a brief nasty flurry of the sodden shitty white stuff to remind me that its still winter.... as I light a cigarette, cracking the window slightly, I feel the wet, cold damp slap against my slightly hungover self and shudder in my over coat, cranking both the heat and eric claptons cover of judgement day to fight off the frosty blast....I drive on contemplating the mysteries that have plagued mankind since the very dawn of time itself..important crap like whether mercks announcement will make my pfizer calls rise this am, how the stunning girl I saw last night..and I do mean stunning even with my scotch aided vision(which has been known to lead to some most unfortunate conclusions in times past, creating the need for an important personal can drink em pretty but you cant drink em thin) could be seen in public with yo-boy imitator with the scruffy goatee, steelers jersey(in a md sports/redneck joint no less..ahh the humanity!!!!!!!!) and more earring's in one ear than my two wives owned between them..yes,driving along thinking deep thoughts about critical issues, earth shattering, life changing considerations like how soon after the market closes should I leave for happy hour,what a certain chicago lady lawyers eyes might look like by candlelight,what type of wedding gift might make jasons intended forget that crossman and I kept him out all night...when the most momentous words,4 words that cause my soul to soar, renewing all hope for mankind.... PITCHERS AND CATCHERS REPORT I go in an instant from a smoky car, transported from a mildly hungover adult male with a huge options position and no immediate prospects for an emotionally satisfactory personal life to an 8 year old moms back yard on a hot summers ever,my suit and tie is replaced by the dirtiest pair of dungarees(yeah I know they call em blue jeans know but trust me on my moms clothing budget in those days, these were dungarees), torn at the knee, a little blood stained because when I slide into second..and I always slide into second whether its a home game and second base is the corner stake of moms tomato patch or an away game and its a garbage can lid billy madisons mom is going to yell at us for stealing out of the kitchen tends to remove the scab from yesterdays game...I can smell the sweaty leather of that old glove, a spalding brooks robinson..the ONLY acceptable version in the maryland of my youth unless it was the boog powell firsties mitt but if you wore that you better be able to clear the center field fence..also knowns as mrs greens shit pile producing beagles dog house.otherwise it was brooks.the glove is well worn,broken in by months of constant use..used to field those razor hot grounders, track down the soaring flyballs up against the wall,or even sometimes over the hood of the car to prevent not only a run scoring double but a true broken windshield, some bodies going to have a very sore ass if I dont catch this catastrophe....and the bat, the same bat, now a 40 yr old piece of hickory hardened to the consistency of iron , that sits in the corner of my room used only on occasion to beat myself senseless when the thought that I might like to be married again some day crosses my mind, but then, then it was the home run swatting, seeing eye single producing fear of boucher avenue.and later after a good dinner of moms chicken, or perhaps a night of trying to slip my eveil vile liver on my sisters plate so I can slip down to my basement bedroom and hear on my little transistor radio the orioles, bufor,blair,robinson(f),powell,robinson(b),johnson,belnager,etchebarran and hendricks platooning tear up opposing pitchers while mcnally cuellar and dobson rendering visiting batsmen powerless... yeah,yeah I know,overpaid athletes,steroids, corked bats, yadiid,yaddi, yaddi..its not the game of my youth,free agency has ruined the game, moral decay of america etc,etc,etc..screw it, its baseball...bright lights illuminating soft green cathedrals streaked with pure lines of the whitest white outlining the field of dreams,exploding fastballs, plunging curveballs, towering home runs, ninth inning rallies and line drive doubles,,and yes I am acutely aware that many frozen nights lie ahead before summer returns to the northeast, and no doubt there is more snow and even the ACC tournament still to come,pfizers only up .15 and at the moment I am without a current incantation of the one great and true love of my life..but PITCHERS AND CATCHERS REPORT and while all is not quite right with the world, there is hope and baseball ahead.

thoughts of the day

As goeth oil,so goeth stocks, at least for now oil is down,stocks are up and vicey versi. For the past several weks the direction of oil determined the days market action. Today, however we see a breaking of the linkage as the continued bad news out of the us automakers overshadows the drop in crude.Ford shares are down almost 6% on the day as the reduce guidance and their bonds are downgraded yet again.As approach midday we find the mkt off down slightly and well of the highs of the day. Which factor determiners the afternoon trading..Bad corporate news or falling oil will make an interesting statement about the markets frame of mind.

At 20 times earnings, the market still feels "heavy" to me with the past of least resistance being down.Indeed since the high put in back in early march the market is off by 4% in the spooz and about 4.5 in the nazz. For the year, the nazz id down a gut dropping 9% or so and continues to lead on the downside.Looking at the backdrop we find that for the short term, sentiment is developing a slightly bullish undertone, suggesting a short bounce in here after recent declines. The NASDAQ in particular is showing very bullish readings in short interest and available cash in margin accounts. Bulls bears is a little more mixed with aaii very bullish and ii neutral but off the very bearish readings seen earlier this year.Price action is hanging on the low side of midrange right now with the sp range being 1160 to 1210, with current reading of 1179.The NASDAQ composite is a little closer to oversold, with my bottom range being 1950-1960 and top being 2040-50,against a current 1994. The 1160 number comes up in several different studies across different time frames and could be a critical point as as i suspect pure technicians will be selling heavily below this price

Volatility remains spite of the general downward trend in prices since early march.It is worth noting however that the vix exceeded the top of its 20 day deviation bands. This was accompanied by 4 down closes and would have put us long at the close of 1172 on march 22.Also worth noting is that if you look at a spread chart of vix relative to sp 500 price levels we are seeing the relationship near the very high levels that spurred longer term corrections. A bounce off the march buy signal could well take us to serious long term overbought conditions in this indicator. The only other time in the last 15 years this spread was this far above its one year average was in 2000.

In my personal account,I remain long volatility with a valuation bias. I am long otm puts on sbux,erts,hot and yhoo while being long otm calls in twtr,dtc,issi and pfe.Both erts and sbux have gone from deeply out of the money to in the money since the positions were established on Feb 2. The original erts position was closed on 3/28 for a 200% gain and I rolled down to a deeper otm strike. The calls are all generally under water to about even at this point. I am also long atml as a play on the long term recovery os semiconductor and tmas as a deep,deep turnaround candidate.

03/30 8:37A (DJ) PRESS RELEASE: TIMCO Aviation Services, Inc. Announces 2004 Results Story 3092 (TMAS, I/TRA, I/TRS, I/XDJGI, N/DJIN, N/DJN, N/DJWB, N/CAC...) GREENSBORO, N.C., March 30 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- TIMCO Aviation Services, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: TMAS) today announced its 2004 results of operations. Revenue for year ended December 31, 2004 was $323.5 million, a 33% increase over the 2003 revenue of $242.5 million. Net income for 2004 was $0.9 million ($0.03 per basic and diluted share), compared to a net loss of $0.3 million ($0.01 per basic and diluted share) for 2003. Net loss from continuing operations in 2004 was $0.7 million compared to $4.3 million in 2003. Net loss from continuing operations during 2004 benefited from a gain on the settlement of a warrant obligation of $0.2 million. Net loss from continuing operations during 2003 benefited from the elimination and reduction in accruals of $2.7 million based on settlements and revised estimates, from the collection of a $0.9 million account receivable that had previously been written off as uncollectible and from tax benefits of $1.0 million resulting from the conclusion of an IRS audit and receipt of federal and state tax refunds. Without these benefits, the net loss from continuing operations for 2004 and 2003 would have been $0.9 million and $8.9 million, respectively. Roy T. Rimmer, Jr., the Company's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, stated: "The ongoing improvement in our operating results, at both the revenue level and at the bottom line, demonstrates that we are on the right course. This strengthening of our operations combined with the enhancement of our capital structure as a result of our recently completed tender offer, will enable TIMCO to be a better business partner with our customers in meeting their aircraft maintenance and modification needs." Gil West, the Company's President and Chief Operating Officer, stated: "Our customers are continuing to look to TIMCO for a larger portion of their MR&O requirements, as evidenced by our 33% year-over-year increase in revenue. Our focus on improving the quality, efficiency and scope of services offered to our customers has been critical in securing this increased business." TIMCO Aviation Services, Inc. is among the world's largest providers of fully integrated aviation maintenance, repair and overhaul (MR&O) services for major commercial airlines, regional air carriers, aircraft leasing companies, government and military units and air cargo carriers. The Company currently operates four MR&O businesses: Triad International Maintenance Corporation (known as TIMCO), which, with its four active locations (Greensboro, NC; Macon, GA; Lake City, FL and Goodyear, AZ), is one of the largest independent providers of heavy aircraft maintenance services in the world and also provides aircraft storage and line maintenance services; Brice Manufacturing and Aircraft Interior Design, which specialize in the manufacture and sale of new aircraft seats and aftermarket parts and in the refurbishment of aircraft interior components; TIMCO Engineered Systems, which provides engineering services both to our MR&O operations and our customers; and TIMCO Engine Center, which refurbishes JT8D engines and performs on-wing repairs for both JT8D and CFM-56 series engines

.Voltility remains too low and we need a rise in vols together with a drop in prices to return to some level of normality inthe relationship of volatility to prices.Valuation does seem to matter as its the high flyers that are getting slapped by incoming black swans and swelling option prices.

Just one knuckleheads opinion.