Memorial Day

From an article originally posted in 2006

But at sometime this weekend I will raise my glass in a silent toast to the reason for the weekend, those who gave their lives in the service of their country. They fell on the green at Lexington, at Trenton on Christmas Eve and in the snow at Valley Forge. They gave up their very lives in the peach orchard at Gettysburg, the cornfield at Antietam, the wilderness outside Petersburg and at Shiloh and Chancellorsville. They left their future behind in the Beleau woods, at Château Thiery and at Ephey. They lie fallen on the beaches of Anzio, Normandy, Guadalcanal and Tarawa. They died at the frozen reaches of Korea at Chosin and Pusan. They paid the ultimate price in the jungles of Khe Sahn and Da Nang. They are buried in Arlington and veterans cemeteries all over the country..or in graves in France, Belgium or some obscure south pacific island.

They are the reason I have the right and ability to work hard and play hard. Because of them and the blood they shed, we all have the right and freedom to work for own destiny, to be that which we would aspire to become. Because of them we can trade for a living, write books, study numbers. It is their sacrifice that allows us to enjoy our lives and our loved ones. And Although I suppose this is more so for those of us in the United States, their sacrifice made it possible for many other nations to enjoy unprecedented levels of freedom and democracy. Memorial Day. Remember them as you celebrate the start of summer. Some enlisted willingly. Some were drafted kicking and screaming. But in the end they wore the uniform of their nation and died fighting under that flag that we may continue to be free and prosperous. I raise my glass to them in a salute of their honor and the sacrifices a grateful nation can never repay. To fallen comrades. We remember you.

The words may be a few years old but the sentiment remains as strong as ever. This weekend the haze of backyard BBQ grills smoking as an endless supply of burgers dogs, chicken and other tasty dead animals will dominate American skies in the ritual of the unofficial first day of summer. Here on Kent island the skies willl fill with the sound of music form the dock bars and the growl of high performance engines let losse for the first time of the year. The pack of fast boats will doubtless run to Tilghman island for the bash at Captain Buddy’s that has been a Memorial day ritual for many years (This year broken rib Tim will remain firmly terra firma). There will laughter, music, fiends, excessive aduly distilled beverages and a general damn good time. Enjoy the weekend but at some point recall why we are celebrating.

A bunch of us went out to see the blue Angels the other day as they put on the annual Naval Academy Graduation air show on Wednesday. I could not help but think about the graduates the air show honors every year. They all signed up in 2006, five years post 9-11. From the very first time they raised their hand on the first day of plebe summer they knew they were entering a war time military. Those who choose the marine option on commitment day last year were well aware they were probably going to face combat during the five year commitment. Those who similarly tossed their caps in the air early this week also knew that they would probably see duty in Afghanistan or Iraq in the next five years. Yet they joined anyway. Most of them could have gone to any school in the country. They chose to serve their country.


I think of the enlistees. Regardless of their individual reasons for joining they have volunteered to serve and if necessary fight for their country. They are all too aware what they are getting into. They are over worked, underpaid and they go to serve anyway. As you party and enjoy the comfort of family and friends this weekend, take a minute to honor them and think of those young men and women who have joined the ranks of those who gave all for our country over the centuries and decades.


The bravery and honor of all those who have ever put on the uniform of the United States of America deserves nothing less.

Almost

It is almost here. Occasionally we have dreary rainy days with the death throes of winter on the edge of the air but summer is almost here. But there are days like this past weekend when the sun is overhead and the breeze carries a savory olfactory hint of the season to come. There is a hint of the mix of sub tan lotion, high octane gasoline and fermented and distilled adult beverages of a wide variety. Here is a far off rumble on high performance engines and outdoor rock and toll that comes in on the wind foreshadowing the good old days of summer. Wine drinkers are starting the annual switch from wine to perfectly chilled whites and scotch is retired for good old G&T’s and orange crushes. The smoke of a thousand grills and the poolside laughter of children will soon fill the air all over the island.Summer is almost here.

Unfortunately for us baseball fans, summer also means the Orioles have already dug so deep a hole that it is highly unlikely they have even an outside shot at the playoffs. From here they need to win almost 60% of their games to be a .500 club and with their current sparkling .300 win percentage the chance of that are about on par with a tax reduction this year. This cannot be blamed on the front office as in years past. Andy McPhail put a better team on the filed in terms of talent. Unfortunately that talent has been playing like bumbling idiots. Missing signs or the cut off man, getting caught in rundowns ad hanging a curve ball to the leagues best hitters is just stupid baseball. I still watch and root for the Birds but it can be physically painful.

The kids birthdays are next weekend and find it hard to believe they will be 22 and 26 this time around. I have been informed that I am cooking a spaghetti dinner on Sunday for however many show up as their celebration with an request, or perhaps demand there be lost of vino available. Ill bitch and mumble as usual but will actually be delighted to do it. The house will be filled with their friends and a few of mine with lots of laughter and food, and of course the aforementioned vino. I often wonder what happened to the little girl in the pom- pom get up and the little boy with bloody knees and dirty face but time stands still for no one. Still does the son of a bitch have to sprint? It is not all bad of course. They have turned into to amazing adults who are a pleasure to be around. Now if I could just get Tommy to stop going into the tire shop in his PJ’s.

The adventures of the island have been accelerated this winter at an unusually weird pace. I thought I had seen everything but we hit new lows this year. The breakups that some of our merry little band experienced hit new highs on the really fucking strange o meter. I saw things happen between various couples happen this year (including me of course just to get the season of what the fuck just happened off to a roaring start but at least mine was early enough I had drank it pretty much gone by Christmas) that would not even be believable as Monday night ABC sitcoms. Still we made it though and the summer is starting to show signs of better times ahead for all. The abnormalities of the past harsh bitch queen of the past winter is fading as temperatures rise for which I merely say thank god. Summer is almost here at long last and the perhaps the oddness will be behind us all now.

The markets have been even more volatile in recent weeks. The problems in Europe have made trades jittery and we are seeing downside action again. In spite of today’s snap back rally which smelled of serious short covering to me I think the market may have finally run out of some of the steam that pushed it up. I suspect some of the HFT guys have cut back after being blamed for the mini crash of last week and want to leave less of a footprint on the markets. The flight to quality rally is offering a great chance to re-enter or establish a short bond position as a long term trade. It looks and smells like agrat trade to me offering outsize returns without much risk to me. I saw today that Wilbur Ross commented on the other trade of the decade. He thinks banks will struggle for some time to come as a result of coming turmoil in bonds and commercial mortgages. As investors begin to realize this bank stocks are selling off. Eventually these stocks, especially smaller community bank stocks will reach levels that make them a must buy for long term investors.
All in all it’s a pretty good life. I am listening to Oscar Peterson and looking forward to tomorrow night and the weekend ahead. The kids are well, the friends are incredible and in spite of the fucked situation in the country today there is much that is right in my life. There are good books, good wine, great music in the future and best of summer is almost here.

Tea Parties, Baseball and Life It's Ownself

I will be heading up to the tea party later this afternoon here on Kent Island. Like so many others I am disgusted with the current situation with pour government. The ever growing stream of taxes, fees and regulations flowing out of Washington is incredible. The government is bailout banks car companies and just about anyone else that represents a large chunk of cash or block of votes. As I read the constitution much of this is outright illegal and yet no one intervenes. The Supreme Court remains almost eerily quiet on the subject.

Want to get depressed? Sit down sometime and add up all the taxes you actually pay. Income tax, sales tax, liquor tax, cigarette tax, gas tax. You pay a tax on your electric bill, and both your phone bills. Then there is real estate tax, luxury taxes, car registration fees and taxes, alternative minimum tax, investment taxes and estate tax. If you have worked hard and done well you get to pay all kinds of extra taxes to help spread the wealth. Sounds socialist doesn't it? It should. It is. No wonder we drink.

My anger is not aimed at just barrack O dumb-dumb. Georgie W. spent money like a drunken hippie and entered into not one but two illegal wars. It doesn’t matter if you agree or disagree with the actions in the Middle East. I, for one, think militant Islam represents the greatest threat to global freedom since the insane fellow with the little mustache. However, the fact remains that we never declared war. We have not declared War since December 8, 1941. In spite of that we have had 4 wars and countless military actions and conflicts. We call then limited conflicts or police actions. The key affect of our limited action is of course rules of engagement that lead to more deaths amongst the brave men and women who wear our nation’s uniform.

The Federal Government grows stronger as the state and local governments weaken. This is exactly the opposite of what our founding father intended. The big joke is that there is almost no way in hell they can ever pay back all the money they have borrowed in our name and children’s name. Congress passes expensive bail out bills and healthcare reforms with not so much as one actually reading the legislation. The government is drunk on power and we are stuck with the bar tab.

Let me say that I am not without charity. I give often of time and money to certain causes. But they are of my own choosing, not the mandate of a vote seeking government. Lets get this straight. I do not owe you or anyone else one damn thing nor do you owe me. I will take care of me and mine and you do the same. If you won’t, do not ask me to pay for it.

The Tea Party has a chance to become a real political movement in this country. The biggest obstacle to the movement is similar to my problems with the Republican party. Many of those in the tea party forefront are conservatives. When I look at the speaker list for the Kent Island event I see some seriously hard core conservative politicians. The problem with conservatives in my opinion is that they want rights and freedoms that are beneficial to free trade and business. I am all for it. However the social values they represent are the exact opposite of the definition of freedom.

I have often said that I want the Democrats out of my wallet and the Republicans out of my bedroom. If we are going to push for a free country then let’s really push it. Why not gay marriage? Why should we hetros be the only miserable ones? I do not care if you screw goats as long as the goat consented and it’s not my goat. We cannot support economic freedoms and yet move to suppress individual freedoms. Relax the drug laws and tax the stuff for Christ sakes. People that want to will get high. We might as well tax it and balance the budget. Think of the reduction in law enforcement and prison expenses if we just legalized pot! Freedom should have the same meaning for a billionaire business man as it does for a 21 year old clerk who wants to toke up a little after work.

Now on to more entertaining speculations and musings. Lets start with the stock market. I confess to being dazzled by the continued rise. The near zero interest rate policy from the Fed has literally pushed money into the stock market. The liquidity and asset allocation fuled rally has been breathtaking. This ain’t going to end well. I have benefited from the action generously as the sheer number of cheap stocks last year forced me into the market. I was underinvested ,for sure, never getting more than about 50% invested by the number of stocks in my portfolio that have doubled and tripled is amazing. The only thing I would even consider buying right now are the net cash stocks like Actions Semiconductor, and Hilltop Holdings. I have two bank stocks right now as well, Shore Bank and Abington Bancorp as special situations. They may go lower if the market implodes. If they do I will buy more. Beyond that I am hesitant to add much money at these levels.

It goes without saying you should be short bonds. I own puts on the long bond ETF. Anyone who thinks the world at large will continue to lend money to the US at current rates for 20 and 30 years is smoking crack. They will eventually demand a higher rate. The Fed can control short rates but the market controls the long end of the curve. Eventually we will have inflation and that will also pressure bonds. The CPI report earlier this week was pointed to by many as a sign that inflation was subdued. Does anyone besides me actually read these reports? Equivalent rents are 40% of the CPI number. If real estate was not so deppressed that report would have shown inflation. God knows we are seeing it in food and energy prices. Bonds are the sell of a lifetime.

The Orioles. The 1 and 7 damn freaking Orioles. What can you say about a team hitting .156 with runners in scoring position? We have a team average of .237. On the bright side we have hit 9 home runs as a team. That’s tied for fourth in the AL. On the dark side our pitching staff has given up 10 to fall second in the league. We have a team ERA over four and are three from the bottom of the barrel. Can’t hit, can’t pitch. It’s going to be a long season.

I touched off a bit of a controversy the other day by posting a friends comments that he had a hard time finding a woman who wanted to be treated well. It is an interesting thought worth consideration. I see the seeds of a truth in there. All too often I have women tell me they want a guy with a sense of humor, who is intelligent and kind. The next night I inevitably see them out with Larry the Lounge lizard or Theodore the Thug. I spent a little time contemplating this remark and came to a conclusion. The majority of the time I am actually a nice guy. I think I have treated the women in my life fairly well. I cannot change this. I grew up with three sisters and I have a daughter.

I am well aware of my own faults. I smoke, I drink and I gamble to start. I make more than my share of my mistakes and have plenty of dummy moments. I am human and male. Once in awhile I will screw up and make an ass of myself. But on balance I think I am a nice guy and I will remain one. Even in the face of evidence that it works I will not become an asshole to land a girlfriend. Years ago I wrote the following. It was true then and it is now.

Being part of what is demographically called the middle aged divorce crowd,
I often see these failed models working out in the great American laboratory
known as the cocktail lounge, bar or pub. The young lady who professes to
value a sense of humor, kindness affection and romance will quite often
leave the bar with the lounge lizard who looks like Richard Gere, or the
overly muscled steroid biker freak with the long hair and will then spend
long hours lamenting these failed relationships over white wine and
cosmopolitans. Men are the worst here. In our desire for companionship, sex
and romance we are a sucker for the surgically enhanced temptress, long hair,
long legs and parts that do things the creator never meant parts to do…..We
forget so often that those who are appealing to the base desires, who dress
to look the part of the dream are most often looking to do exactly that…to
tempt us to do something we should not for reasons we usually would not and
its much more about their desires than ours…the muscle happy freak and larry
the lounge lizard are looking to get laid…the tight jeaned barroom queen of
our dreams, in my experience is looking for this month’s visa card payment
and a move up apartment. Those who initially profess interest in something
more meaningful fall into their traps and find all the attendant miseries.
Every time I have allowed a gin soaked brain to fall for a cosmetic package
that took my breath away…my wallet usually followed my breath. While all the
while their sits a decent respectable guy out with his buddies who would
like nothing more than to fall in love with the right girl and end up in a
Louisville airport in 30 or 40 years, arthritically shuffling for his
beloveds coffee, and an attractive women sits..without the surgical
improvement, dressed in clothes that actually fit but with more flashing
behind her eyes than even she realizes who only desires the right man and
dreams of wearing purple sundress and red tennis shoes on the beaches of her
future…..

Now I am off to get ready for the tea party. Afterwards perhaps I will drink and smoke too much and watch the Orioles find a new and exciting way to lose a baseball game.

Annual St Pats Instructions

St. Patrick's Day: the one day of the year when the 2% of the world's population that's Irish gets the other 98% completely shitfaced. So i figured i'd help everybody prepare. Its closer than you think.



First of all, you got to start preparing your liver 3 or 4 days in advance. Warm up to the idea of whisky by drinking it all weekend so that your body gets used to the strong and powerful effects that it induces on your body and behaviour.You must excercise your liver and body into shape and raise your tolerance level so that you don't pussy out and pass out before the party even gets started.

Step1:

7a.m - 9 a.m. Rise and fuckin shine, its an early start to this day!!. Take a long, hot shower, and liberally use aftershave, perfume, cologne, deodorant and powders afterwards, because by 3p.m., you will be excreting raw alcohol and other poisons, and without proper preparations, you will smell like a three-day dead cat wrapped in a fraternity carpet. The bars open at 9, so use this time to prepare. Collect the following supplies and put them in a place where you will easily be able to find it in an impaired condition.


We recommend the bathroom floor, between the toilet and the baseboard heater, since that's where you'll probably end up: 1 quart spring water 1 bottle aspirin 5 pairs Depends undergarment 1 bottle Percocet 1 gram morphine sulfate 1 oz. human adrenaline extract 1 pre-charged electric defibrillator 4 Cardiac needles 1 trauma surgeon you MUST also be in the proper attire so gather your greens and get in the spirit.


Brew a strong pot of coffee. Add 9 oz. Jameson Irish whiskey, drink. Note that coffee should be drunk liberally throughout the day. There is a reason that the Irish invented Irish Coffee; unless you ingest a large volume of artificial stimulants throughout the course of St. Patrick's Day, you are going to die. Arrange to be picked up to be taken to the bar by 8:45 a.m. We cannot stress enough that you should not drink and drive. There is no reason to chance losing your license or killing someone in a drunken state when you have plenty of idiot friends willing to take that risk on your behalf.

Step 2:

9 a.m. to 11 a.m. Arrive at the bar right when it opens. Make sure this is an Irish bar if at all possible. Secure a barstool and do not leave it under any circumstances. The bar is liable to be packed by noon, and real Irish people do not wait in line for drinks, no matter what the consequences. While we do recommend the use of an adult undergarment to mask unpleasant smells, it really doesn't matter. By afternoon, you'll be sopping wet with spilled beer anyway, and your mild urine smell will be completely overpowered by the toxic stench of vomit.

We recommend starting out with a few more Irish Coffees to spike the stimulant level, however, you should not order an "Irish Coffee," as you will be given a fruity little glass mug topped with whipped cream and a cherry, and some guy named Seamus will call you a yuppie poseur while putting a cigarette out on your neck. Ask for coffee with whiskey and ask the bartender to leave the whipped cream can, as nothing will add spice to your day like the occasional whippet.

Step 3:

11 a.m. to 2 p.m. It's lunchtime! You may not be hungry, but it's important to eat something, because like Sheriff Bart said in Blazing Saddles: "Man drink like that and he don't eat, he is going to die." If you want to maintain your buzz and not get that hideous, bloated feeling that could slow down your drinking, there are only two options: popcorn or Pop Tarts. Both have the carbohydrates you'll need to give you energy, both will soak up excess bile in your stomach, and both have names that are hard to slur. If you start slurring your words too early, you'll hear the most frightening phrase in the English language on St. Patrick's Day besides "I'm pregnant": "You're cut off". By now, you should switch off of coffee drinks to beer. You have only one option here: Guinness Stout. You may be tempted to order green beer, but remember: beer doesn't always turn green because of food coloring.

Step 4:

2 p.m. to 7 p.m. By now, the bar is definitely crowded as people take long lunches and bail out of work early to tie one on. If you're doing your job correctly, the bar should look twice or three times as crowded as it really is. By now, you may be in conversation with some real Irish people, since the person you came with has likely been taken away by ambulance. Some conversational points to remember when talking to the Irish are: Football really means Soccer, and you should be more passionate about it than you are about your girlfriend or boyfriend, AND The English are all piss-assed, pig-fucking bastards who should be lined up and kicked into the Liffey. If you remember those two points, as well at least three derogatory names for Margaret Thatcher, you can talk to the Irish for hours.

You should continue to drink Guinness throughout this leg, although you may want to have another Irish Coffee if your heartbeat has become irregular. The Home Stretch: 7 p.m. to Closing Your goal, of course, is to be the last person to leave the bar at closing time. This will be impossible, since a blood alcohol content of .50 usually equals death, and you should be pushing a .35 or .40 by now. The only way for a true Irishman to leave a bar before closing time with honor is to be hauled away by the police.


Throw a punch. It doesn't matter who you hit or why; no one's made any sense since 3 o'clock, anyway. You will be beaten mercilessly, since your fine motor control has been gone since the late morning, but it doesn't matter since you can't feel anything. Depending on your community, the police should arrive within fifteen minutes to scrape you off the floor and clap you in irons. The final impression you leave is the most important: as you are being dragged from the bar, begin screaming that you want to take your drink with you. You will be a legend! Besides by now the friend who took you to the bar should have had his or her stomach pumped, and will be able to bail you out.


By following these simple guidelines, your St. Patrick's Day experience would be one you would never forget if it weren't physically and biologically impossible for you to remember any of it. And I am not to be blamed if you end up waking up naked In a Dumpster

Random Ruminations and Ponderous Ponderings

A good whiskey and a good book are not a bad way to spend an evening and indeed that is how much of this one will pass. Of course a good whiskey and a good woman would be even better but at least I don’t have to make dinner for the book. As a bonus it is highly unlikely that my copy of The Young Lions will look at me in six months and want to talk about my smoking drinking and gambling. Of course that only the ones I have met we were drunk smoking outside the casino so perhaps there is hope for me yet on that front. But I digress. It is not my point this eve to ramble on about my many wonderful characteristics and fine character but to think a little about the world we live in.

I am sick of even thinking about this economy but I have to from time to time. I keep hearing all these proclamations from inside the beltway and between the rivers stating that everything is better and the crisis has passed. If this is the case how come no one I talk with out here in the real world thinks so? I make it a point to talk to a cross section of people as I go through the world and all of them are still concerned. Their friends and loved one are getting laid off and they are underwater on their mortgage. The revenues at their businesses are declining and they are worried about the ever rising tide of regulations, fees and taxes being proposed at every level of government. They are far less optimistic than the talking heads on the boob tube.

It seems to escape the attention of our elected officials that we cannot tax and regulate our way back to prosperity. Keep in mind that the entire stimulus is your money given to someone else to decide how to spend. Even worse the government is borrowing in your name to spend money. Instead of looking for ways to encourage innovation and entrepreneurship, the very engines that have grown our economy for centuries ,we are going to spend money on green energy projects that will actually raise the cost of living and going business. Instead of reducing taxes for the small business owners they buy bankrupt car companies and give a third of the equity to the Union that was much of the reason for the bankruptcy.

Part of the reason we got where we are has been our national apathy about our politics. I am convinced that if every American of voting age watched a few hours of C-Span a day the world would change very quickly. When you see the decisions being made and the process by which they are made you cannot help but be outraged. The deal making and pork barrel spending are outrageous and morally corrupt. We need for more folks to be mad, stand up and run against the professional politicians. I want a guy or gal in office who has sweated out a payroll. I want people in office who have gotten up at the crack of dawn to make peanut butter and jelly sandwiches for the kids lunches while simultaneously balancing the checkbook and making coffee. I want someone who has worked 16 hour days to build a business. Even better if they failed a time or two along the way.

Someone has suggested before that I run a time or two. What a great speech that would be! I not only inhaled, I snorted chugged and imbibed my fellow Americans. Citizens of this great state, you should be aware that yeah, chances are I DID sleep with that woman. Let me tell you why you should vote for me and make me the very first congressman who spent much of his teenage years in the city lock up for an incredibly wide range of activities. For some reason I do not see that playing well. Incredibly we seem to expect our politicians to be pure without a single trace of humanity or reality in their souls. It is one of the reason we are where we are in my opinion. I would much rather have a skirt chasing womanizer who knows how to balance the budget than some character who has never had a real job and lived his entire life behind closed doors.

I was talking with a friend of mine last night who runs a good size business that is struggling in the weak economy. He talked of some of the same fears I have, rising deficits, increased taxes and regulations. He said something to me that I think brings us to the heart of the matter. “Tim I am not worried about me. I am worried about my kids having the same chance I did.” BINGO. That what I worry about. I look at those two incredible young adults who I am privileged to have call me dad and I worry about the world I will be giving them. Will they be able to take the chances, experiences the thrills and the spills of life the way I have. Will they be free to take an idea or their creativity and drive and use it to make a life for themselves? Not if we do not change things and quickly.

If we continue to remove creativity, drive and determination from our society we will become a nation of bureaucrats, functionaries, lawyers, and fast food workers just waiting on each other. What kind of world are we leaving our kids if the Army is seeing increased enrollment because employment opportunities are so bad you are willing to take a risk of being shot on sand dune or frigid mountain just to get some kind of paycheck? It is happening. Look your kids the eyes and ask if this is theworld we want to leave them? If you don’t have kids and are extraordinarily brave come look at my two little capitalists in the eye and tell them the path we are moving down, mortgaging not just their future but their future kids is okay.

When a nation is not growing, it is indeed dying. I apply this statement not just to our economy but our culture. When I look at the best seller lists and realize that it is almost entirely composed of vampire books and instruction manuals on losing weight on the fast food diet I worry about the future. I worry even more when I realize that the vast majority of Americans are waiting for the movie about vampires and cheeseburger diets to appear on pay per view. The music charts contain songs that have worse language than me with two snoots full of whiskey doing my best Hunter Thompson imitation and I worry. Do not get me wrong. I love good loud rock and roll and a trashy novel is like mind candy from time to time. I acknowledge my John D. McDonald, Robert Parker and Randy Wayne White addictions. At least those books have important lessons on mixing great cocktails, cooking good food and throwing the perfect punch. A nation of television drones drowning in booming bass beat is probably not learning to think and imagine the way previous generation were able to experience.

I want to leave my kids and potential grandkids a world that still has great music and great books. I want them to be able to take an idea and run with it. I want them to deal with life’s bumps and failures that occur by going back to work not looking for a government bail out. I want them toexperince the magic celebratory nights of victory, champagne and laughter. I want them to be prepared to deal with the cheap whiskey and cheaper tears when it doesn’t work out as intended and be able to get up the next morning and start over. I want them to savor their achievements and not watch an avaricious government come in and take more than half the fruits of their labor in the name of income equality and social justice. I want them to have a life of first kisses and broken hearts, of good friends and great times, of loud laughter and soft tears and most importantly to know that is all theirs on their own hook and effort.

We live in a great nation in an incredible world. I have been blessed with an incredible life. I have failed in my usual spectacular fashion along the way and their have been highs and lows of equal proportions along the way. I have had my share of first kisses and broken hearts. I have danced all night under the starry skies of the local dock bars. I am surrounded by friends and two incredible kids. I have read great books and trashy ones. We have a world with everything from Beethoven to the Rolling Stones and back again. While all of this will undoubtedly still exist if we keep going down the road we are going the kids will not appreciate it as much as I did. It is hard to notice the arrangement and tone of the many hues in a multicolored sunset when you are taxed to the breaking point to finance spiraling debts not of your own making. When the opportunities to build your life as you want it are gone because of an array of regulations and social claims John Coltrane and Miles just do not sound as sweetly complex.

It’s not just the current bunch in office that is to blame, although God knows they are not helping. It’s decades of poor partisan politics and above all it is our fault, each and every damn one of us. We cannot enjoy nor preserve the fruits of liberty from a position of apathy.

It is time to ask ourselves a question. What kind of world do I want and what am I willing to do to make that a reality for myself, my kids and the future?

Okay, before I move on to the usual suspects and subjects, and I will get to them all sports, markets, life its own self and such, I have some thoughts rambling around in the brain that need to be purged by spilling them onto paper. I have used several Hunter Thomson quotes as my Facebook status of late and it was only a matter of time before somebody reminded me that he had killed himself with his wife and kid in the next room. All right now lets be honest. Filling yourself with the better portion of a bottle of Wild Turkey and taking a huge fucking 45 and blowing your head off with family in the house is a pretty shitty thing to do. It is simply not nice, I will agree.

Now lets look at it from a slightly different point of view. He was getting older. He had lived a long interesting life and mow his health and probably his brain were starting to fade. If you read his Hey Rube columns on ESPN you knew he still had something left but the end was near anyway. He went out on his own terms in his own way with his family in attendance. Now look, that’s going to leave a mark on the wife and especially his son. His wife seems to have dealt with it okay. She probably expected it. The son perhaps not so well. For both of them there will be emotional and mental scars. It was selfish on his part I will grant.

But is it any more fucked up and selfish than things we seem to do to each other every damn day? More selfish than cheating on a spouse or lover? Trust me that shit leaves a mark as well. More selfish than fucking over a business partner for a bigger percentage of the pie? More so than taxing the living fuck out of productive people to give away to those who accomplish exactly jack shit in this world? More selfish than giving the wife and kid a smack because they won’t shut the fuck up while the TV is on? More selfish or harmful than the things people do every damn day to each other with no one blinking an eye? I do not really think so.

HST will go down as one of the last of those who lived his life as he wanted. He avoided the tepid conformity that seems to entrap so many. I didn’t always agree with his view points but admired that he was pretty equal opportunity about spilling his vile onto to the leeches and demagogues that have taken over inside the beltway. He was one of the best sportswriters I have ever read when he was on top of his game. He was equllay good at political wirting. Fear and Loathing on The Campaign Trail was classic. How can I not like a guy who loved women, whiskey and college basketball?

Enough on that. We are now into the what the hell is going to happen phase of the sports year. The Olympics are on and while some of it moderately entertaining I am just not enough of a winter sports enthusiast to work up a good interest level. I am more concerned about Maryland locking in a couple of more conference wins and securing an NCAA berth. If it wasn’t for the miserable fucks down at Duke I would like the Terps to take the ACC tournament this year but Coach K’s pack of rabid quick footed bastards are in the way this year. I am interested in seeing Kentucky go deeper into the tourney that Villanova so I can get within a thousand bucks of having an even ledger with that lecherous little munchkin Coleman.

The Orioles are another what the hell is next equation. I think they are better and if the young pitching staff steps up a year better and stronger they may actually be good. New York slipped a little but a little is not enough. Funny that a guy like Johnny Damon can sell his Red Sox soul to go to New York and they let him go. Those goddamn soul sucking rat fucking bastards in Boston actually improved and are going to be tough this year. Tampa has a good young team again as well. In the pit bull pit that is the AL East good just is not enough. Memo: I looked at single game ticket prices for the orioles and I have a question. Are you out of your scrambled motherfucking mind? How about we actually have a winning season before trying to charging me $60 for club level box seats?

Now to the big bitch mother mistress of them all, the stock market. More people out of work? Great news, buy them up. Fighting two shitty little wars that aren’t going well? Take the offer across the board. People walking away form their home because they cant sell if for half what they paid? Buy em boys. Revenues down double digits? Fire a couple thousand people and watch out stock double on cost cutting moves. Sovereign nations in danger of default? Best fucking news I have heard all year so I am going to buy some stocks.

This is getting stupid. The economy sucks like a hooker with a hoover and the geopolitical situation is unstable at best. I am watching companies get back to pre bubble levels and just wondering what the hell these people are thinking. Paying up 30 and 40 times earnings for mediocre companies and 60 to 70 times for the really good ones is not a recipe for success. I am finding very little stuff that trades below book value and I am not adding to a lot of positions right now. I did buy two banks for the first time in years. I bought Shore Bancshares here on the eastern shore last month and this month I scooped up a little Abingdon Bancshares. ABBC has struggled a bit and has a much higher percentage of troubled loans that I usually accept but they have outrageous capital ratios.The equity to asset ratio is 17 so I am confident that at 70% of tangible book I am okay buying it. My net cash stocks are working well and my portfolio is up almost double digits in spite of being under invested on the year. I will take it but I am being pretty damn careful.

I find myself agreeing with Doctor Doom that every living American should be short treasury bonds, especially the long term issues. Since no crack addled hobo would lend money to a broke ass for 4% a year how can we expect the world to keep doing so for the US. Our deficits are out of control. We are printing money like Tom Clancy novels and the people in charge of this shit show appear ever more clueless. China has cut way back on purchases. I suppose the Japanese could keep buying them but how many more newly printed yen do we want? At some point this will have one bitch ugly ending and I am willing to tolerate time decay to hold my puts on the TLT until it does. I made 40% on this trade last year so I only have house money left in the game at this point anyway.

I am also looking at some ideas on the net cash front. Solitron Devices (SODI) is a tiny little company that makes solid state semiconductors primarily for the military and aerospace markets. The company is squeezing out a profit right now and the book to bill is still above 1. They have $2.57 a share in cash with no debt against a current price of $2.51. Peerless Systems is also still profitable and trading for less than cash and securities balances. The current market cap is $41 million and they have cash and securities of $49 million. They sold all their operating business and just have royalty stream form OEM licenses at this point.

As long as I can find little dinky crap like this to buy I can continue my long standing policy of ignoring the absolute fucking mess we have made of our markets. We have turned our capital markets into short term casinos filled with algorithmic betting systems dominating the scene. Thank god for microcap value or none of this shit would make sense to me at all.

It is winter here on the island and we have been hammered by snow and I hear there may be more on the way. We have already had an epic snow party here on at Chez Melvin and I suspect we will get the chance for more before it is all over. Just fucking great. I hate snow with a passion usually reserved for ex wives, the Boston Red Sox and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Eventually it will be spring they tell me. I sure as fuck hope so. I need some sunshine and open water. We have seen an outbreak of break up fever here on the island so at least there are a lot of depressed motherfuckers for me to drink with so far. Some one had to take Tic-tac and Tire Guys place since they became nannies and got married respectively.

On the personal front there are no changes to report. It figures that about the time I decide I really want to settle down there are no takers on the horizon that would match up well with my personality. I am at that point where I really would like to settle into a long term relationship. Now although I have slowed down a bit I am not ready to say my skirt chasing days are over forever. Until I find that one person there are still nights when a look of languorous sensuality in a woman’s eyes, a swirl of skirt, a flash of thigh, a twirl of flesh can raise those demons for a return visit. Hell I am a guy. But in all truth I would trade a million of those nights for ones of partnership, with a friend, a bonding of the emotional, mental and physical. I get glimpses from time to time. Hell I thought I found it forever less than a year ago. The again I though I had it with the little Southern Maryland firecracker and the Soft Kentucky Drawl in the last decade. There have been a couple more that I thought might be contenders but for some reason they just do not see how fucking wonderful I actually am! Truthfully hope may spring eternal but I can be a difficult motherfucker to put up with it so she will have to be a pretty damn special person. Until then I have good scotch, good books and incredible friends. I will get by.

So it goes on. I never thought I would have this life. Shit where I grew up staying out of jail was considered a major accomplishment and more weekends than not I failed miserably at that. Thank God for books and Ken Morrow. Ken died in the last month or so and it hurt to hear it. Although I have spent the last twenty years waiting for my old friend and mentor to step out of the shadows and shoot the shit out of me for past transgressions (okay so the friendship didn’t end well) that man taught me to grow up, he taught me business and how to be a man. I have not seen him in 20 years but he will be missed. I have friends, incredible children and memories that most will never have. It has been fun. With any luck someday in the next bar I ll run into Hunter and he will tip his hat at a life lived almost as well.

New ramblings

So here we are a few week into the New Year. So far so good as the old adage puts it. I thought several times of doing a year in review piece similar to years past. Then one night as I sat sipping a delightful 18 year old bottle of the grouse it I had a (no doubt scotch induced) epiphany. Why the pure fuck would I want to that? For many 2009 was a nasty brutal year. Professionally it was a good year for me but otherwise not so much. Add a 98 loss season for the orioles and the decarnation of the last incarnation of the one true love of my life and it was not much of a year. So lets just wish 2009 a fond goodbye and fuck you then move on.

So here we sit in Mid January. The cold spell is over and the Ravens are still in the playoffs. In a few hours we will find out if the defense is up to the task of stopping Peyton from turning the game intoa track meet. Its almost impossible to confuse Manning so we are going to have to knock him around all day. Our guys got to Brady so they can get to Manning. We will know in a few hours. Whatever happens that was a pretty good late season push to get in the playoffs.

Island life is slowing down to the winter pace after the holidays. Ah, who the hell am I kidding? The only thing the season change means around here is that we do our drinking and gathering indoors instead of on the docks and boats. Instead of boat rides and outdoor bars we fill the time with poker games and bar trivia, to say nothing of football. This is a great place to live and is populated with some of the best people I have ever met in my life. It is an eclectic group with a wide range of ages and occupations, I also have to say that it is one of the few places I have ever lived where no one gives two and a half shits what you do or what you have. You either fit or you don’t. Hell, we even have Redskins fans in the group.

Looking at the economy I wish I could say something real positive and that it was going to get better soon. Sadly I just do not see it. If you live inside the beltway or between the rivers you might try to twist up some of the pure bullshit flowing out of the economists and politicians mouths into a green shoot. Out here in the real world I hear tales of layoffs, foreclosures and furloughs. Business is slow for most and I am not hearing much chatter about any up turn just yet.

The stock and bond markets are priced for stone cold perfection. With real unemployment nearing the 20% level and real estate prices still falling I do not see much on the level of perfect going on. I know cost cutting is holding margins up for many companies but it is not really possible to shrink your way into growth. Sales for many key industries are still dropping and my ever reliable mall Spies tell me not much new is changing with the advent of a new year. Add in carbon taxes and health care surcharges and the profit picture gets even dimmer in my opinion.

I am quite confident in the ability of those shitheads on both sides of aisle in the mental cesspool of the Potomac to blow up the markets. None of these goddamn idiots should be entrusted with a fucking popsicle stand much less a nation. Our children grandchildren will be paying for this mess. We can’t have the type of bullshit bailouts and handouts we have been doing. If you and I fuck up and make bad decisions and stupid bets we go broke. The sheriff takes our shit and they auction it to pay what we owe. When Wall Street and Congress do it we just print more and send them away with a pat on the ass and a promise to do better.


We have a government that starts wars and doesn’t finish them. What a dishonor to the men and women who serve to send them in harms way with ridiculous restrictions. Further how we can continually do it with such blatant disregard for the constitution. This nation has not declared war since December 1941 yet every day we have casualties from armed conflict. We send them out with ridiculous rules of engagement. Collateral casualties cannot be a consideration if we are going to fight a war. Train them, arm the, then turn the m loose to fucking WIN the damn thing. Where the hell is Georgie Patton when you need him?


An economy in disarray and a unstable geopolitical situation is not perfection. There is just so much that can go wrong on so many levels and none of this is reflected in the markets. We have seen a massive forced asset allocation trade put on by the government. Keeping rates low and flooding the economy with cash has literally forced money into stocks bonds and commodities. This will end badly. It has to. There is not some super fucking genius kept in a closet in DC that knows how to unwind this trade. The same dipshits that created the mess will be the ones at the helm. I am sure they will drive the ship right up on the goddamned rocks and am investing in anticipation of this. I am short bonds again this year and intend to remain so throughout 2010.


Thank God for cheap stocks. I don’t think I ever got over 40% invested last year and in spite of that had one of my best years ever in absolute percentage terms. I enter the year with positions in several of my near or below cash book value beauties and am quite content to limit my activities to these stocks. I also just bought the first bank stock I have owned in several years, adding shares of a local bank to my holdings. I just stuck my toe in the water picking up a few shares of Shore Bancshares but I expect to add to the position throughout the year. The local bank trades below book value and has a solid loan portfolio and balance sheet.

This is the type of trade I am hoping begins to develop in earnest in the first half of 2010. As commercial and real estate woes continue to fall I am looking for the market to wake up to the problems facing the small banks. When it starts the stock market, being the bastion of irrational insanity that it is ,the baby will go out with the bathwater. This type of activity created a situation back in the early 1990s that allowed many [people to literally get rich over the next decade. When the god get sold with the bad I am looking to buy up a portfolio of small banks below tangible book value that have low loan losses and adequate reserves. As real estate improves-and it will someday- we will start to see a wave of mergers and acquisitions in the banking community. These transactions will occur at multiples of book, not at a discount. Those solid bank stock bought in this next sell off will show tremendous gains for those bold enough to step up.


Sam Zell, the grave dancer of the real estate industry, recently said that hotels would be the first commercial real estate he will start buying in 2010. I think he is right and am watching the hotel REITs carefully. I am spending time digging though the numbers at looking at every piece of the capitalization structure to find opportunities in the common and preferred equity as well as debt securities of these companies. It is still early on the CRE game but I want to have a buy list and a deep understanding of the industry when the time to buy arrives. It may be closer than we all think for this segment of the market.


Back here in the real world life may not be perfect but its still so damn good I cannot stand it at times. Both kids are living with me now and although I should be encouraging them to move out and on I am selfish. I like having the little shits around. They are both smart hard working people with a great outlook on life and I like having them around. It is not uncommon for the two of them to be my first choice for dining and drinking companions. For some strange ass reason they like hanging around with my friends and me and I love every damn minute of it.

As always I am blessed with that wonderful excess of friends that has made life so interesting and just flat out fucking fun at times. Things shift around as people marry, get married, move in a different direction with their lives but at the core both on the island and in the after dark spec group a core remains. The cheesehead may be in Wisconsin freezing his ass off but we still drunk dial from time to time and catch up on the latest adventure. Tic-Tac may have found a new career as a nanny but we still find time to meet for drinks and an episode or two of pure stupidity. The Porsche driver has become a fast friend and is just hysterical to be around. He is one of the very few people that has as fucked up a personal life as I do. Add a sense of humor and sense of adventure and he becomes a dangerous companion of the finest kind. The tire guy still plays keno as a battle to the death and bleeds purple and black as always. His wife just opened a new hair salon so I may actually have to start getting a haircut on a regular basis. The curmudgeon is splitting time between Chicago, Tahoe and the state of contusion but we still talk markets, sports and life several times a week. A good friend os one who bails you at 2 am. A great friend is one sitting in the cell next year saying, “Holy shit that was fun.” I am blessed with many of both.


So what does the year ahead hold? Hell if I know. I know there will be laughter and there will probably be a tear or two along the way. If you live full out and head on as I try to do it is pretty much inevitable. I have always held that he who dies with the most scars, in or outside, wins. Life is a contact sport nad I will play until the game ends. I win some I lose some and so far I have been able to win the important ones. I love what I do, I have incredible children who I count among my best friends, and friends in evry walk and phase of life. Doesn’t sound too bad to me.

Yeah okay so finding someone to share I with is not a game we put into the winners category just yet. Doesn’t mean I will quit playing. Yeah I have take a few good sharp shots over the years of the relationship variety but there have been more than enough moments of great romance and deep passion to make any tears or heartbreaks worth the price paid. Either that or I am just too stupid to quit. Whatever the reason the search continues. Hopefully this is my year. Probably won’t be because apparently I am a difficult man! But as with Mr. Edison and the light bulb I can fail in my endeavors to find a permanent incarnation of the one true love of my life many times and get right just once to win.

So let life roll on. Pour the wine, deal the cards, start the engines. To the best of my knowledge we get one shot at this thing sol endeavor to make it a good one. There are books to read, music to hear and adventures to be had.It is not always going to be perfect, nor it will always be fun. But there will be many moments that are both.I doubt that any of us will lie on our deathbed recalling the times when we struggled to pay the bills or drowned a broken relationship in cheap gin and tears. We will instead be recalling those wild nights with great friends or as I once heard it put nights we will never remember with friends we will never forget. We will think of the first cry of a child. We will recall a first kiss on a frozen winter’s night or perhaps dancing into the early hours on a dock with a new love. Perhaps it will be a little boy at his first big league game or a cherished friends wedding. It will be those memories we embrace at the end and they will bring a smile to our weary faces. It is those memories that make life worth living. It’s a new year. lets go make some.

Thanksgiving 2009

It has been a tough year all the way around. The economy has been difficult for most of us. The markets have been confusing at best and dangerous at worst. The Orioles suck and the Ravens are going to need a miracle to make the playoffs. My personal life remains God’s personal comedy channel or at least a warning to others. In spite of that at this time of year it is appropriate to count my blessings and they are many.

Lets start with the fact that I am basically living my dream. I work from home, write every day and invest in stocks and bonds for myself and friends. It does not get any better than this. I moved into a larger nicer place and both kids are here with me now. While that is at times a mixed blessing I truthfully like it MOST of the time. I have dodged the worst of the markets and the economy and life is actually pretty damn good for me.

Yes times are tough right now for many in this country. Truth be told they may well get far worse before they get better. That cheerful breed of cutthroats, thugs thieves and outright fucking idiots that ascended to power are clueless. At times it seems like they are trying to screw up the world. It is amazing to me that the focus on politics and appeasing vote and money blocks allows them to totally ignore the long term implications of what they are doing. If they are considering that aspect of their actions than they are criminals and traitors and should be drug by their carefully coiffed hairdo to the gallows and swiftly and brutally executed. I find myself hoping they are just the vote whores and power sniffers I think they are. The alternative is ugly.

But the truth is that this is the US. I cannot believe that we have become so lethargic and sheep like that we will not see through this at some point. I already see the tea parties and feel the rage of many people in this country. People are confused and scared and they are beginning to realize what a buffoon they elected to lead us. This is change you can believe in all right just not for the better. The 1970s decade of clueless leadership and idiotic fiscal policies gave rise to Ronald Reagan ad 20 year boom and I think it will happen again. If it does not then it is our own damn fault for allowing it to happen.

I think we will again become an America where innovation and industry will be rewarded. Hopefully we get back to a point where a house is a home and not a speculation. Whats wrong with saving your money and making a downpayment and having equity in your home. The American Dream is the freedom to live the life you want not owning a fucking ATM machine with indoor plumbing. We need to change the tax code to encourage savings and investment once again, instead of encouraging debt and insatiable spending.

I do not who John Galt is but I think he is out there. The outcome of the incredible fucking mess we are in and are still facing is hopefully a return to a world where small business thrives and grows. If we do realize our mistakes of the past decade and get our country back on track then its worth it. If we do not take the country that way then we deserve whatever we get from the pocket picking assholes on either side of the aisle.

Those who are aware of my market and economic positions wil be surprised to hear me describe myself as an optimist. True I am bearish on the intermediate direction of financial things but on life itself I remain an absolute cock eyed fucking optimist. There is simply too much that is good and true and right about this life not to be. If life is so awful how can we have summer nights and winter mornings? Look at a smiling child and tell me again how horrid life is. Watch an elderly couple strolling hand in hand down the avenue oblivious of the traffic and crowds swirling around me and tell me that this journey is not worth it. It is.

There is so much to be grateful even in a tough year. There are books of course. Books have made my life what it is so far. They are my biggest source of education but of entertainment. Television is for sport and news. I do not see how people can sit in front of the box having someone else life fed to them in thirty minutes slices of idiocy when so much great literature and incredible stories are at hand. Hell, even if you are broke a library card is free. The lessons of the universe and of history are in their pages, as are the stories and epics of the ages. How someone can note read is just a mystery to me. Maybe not a Parker or Christie quality mystery but a mystery none the less.

There is music. Here’s an idea. Instead of taking anti fucking depressants fill your life with Handel, Mozart and Beethoven. Throw out the goddamn pills and turn on Miles and Coltrane to out out the fires raging in your head. Let Oscar Peterson take you off to dreamland and maybe a little rock and roll to get the blood flowing in the morning. Let me see you be a grouch ass in the morning with John Hiaat slamming through slow turning . Can’t be done. Music is the heart of life and the soul of creation in my opinion.

The next area is one I approach warily. There are women. While it is true that I am coming off a breakup of breath taking proportions even by my somewhat spectacular standards I will always be grateful for the women that I have been fortunate enough to have in my life. Yes, they have made me crazy at times and the source of more than one tear (if I cried of course.Everyone knows I am a tough guy and tough guys do not cry). But there have been so many spectacular moments that any pain has been worth the passion and even love. A first kiss, a lovers touch, the moment you know you are falling in love, these and so many others are the reason I will never give up on women. As with Edison and the light bulb I am aware that I can fail many times with explosions and even burns along the ay but I only have to get it right once for the light to work. I remain hopeful that at some point it does and I can be half of that couple walking down the avenue hand in hand oblivious to the crowds and the traffic swirling around them.

To not be grateful for my friends would be to mock at the face of God. I have been blessed with friends that are in my opinion the single greatest group of people I have known. Here on the island people like The Tire guy and his bride The Salon Chick, Tic tac and The Peruvian princess, Crackbaby an his girl the wine pusher are the glue of life. People like GQ and Lamie, The Fishermans Guy and the shacked up freeloader along with baldy and so many others are the ones I laugh with, play with and make life so much more enjoyable. When I think I have set a new standard for a whacked out personal life I need merely hang out with the Porsche driver for a bit and my troubles are greatly reduced in scope!We share the laughs, we share the tears and we love our lives.

Then there are the Spec Friends accumulated over the years. How much have I learned from The irascible curmudgeonly options trader and the rest of the disreputable Chicago crowd over the years? How many late nights and last calls have we all shared over the years? Too much and too many to ever properly count. There are the late night calls with the gin swilling Cheesehead who has become one of my favorite people on the planet over the years. The voodoo prof, the VT fan, the Iranian, the Kentucky colonel,all of these and more have added so much to my life over the years that I could never repay it . My fondest hope is that I have added some measure to theirs.

So yeah, it has been a tough year. But we have and will survive; Life will swirl around us with all the attendant highs and lows. There will be laughs and music to soothe out journey and enhance our path along the way. There will be sunsets of unspeakable beauty and storm of unfathomable strength and we shall pass through them all. There is much to love about life and so much to be thankful for even when times are tough.

So raise a glass my friends in toast to all we have to be grateful and all that makes life so wonderful. Happy Thanksgiving!

Life Rolls On

So the time is upon us and the end is nigh. As we all do pass to where we do not know and dare not ask, the regular season is coming to its end. The orioles have been god awful bad this season and again we end on a weak note. There are signs of promise but we need one arm and two bats to actually compete I shall watch the off season closely. Now I turn my eyes north with the fond hope the Yankees kick the shit out of Boston and take it all. Who else would I pull for? The Phillies? LA? Not much chance of that. Give me the legacy of Ruth Gehrig mantle and DiMaggio as we move to the playoffs.

We have play off baseball and football this month. As a sports fan it is hard not to love October. The Ravens are good, Navy is average and Maryland sucks but we shall enjoy it all. Flacco looks like Unitas out there and has the same proud humility. It will be fun watching the season. I have MD season tickets but have only watched one quarter. They are truly terrible. Love the fridge but he may have to go. Navy took one to much if a schedule this year but I think we get six wins and beat Army so that is a good year.

The market? Are you fucking kidding me? I have been wrong since March but right since 2007. The real estate and employment situation are still horrible and they are the keys to everything. How can you be bullish in an economy that is 70% consumer driven and the real unemployment rate approaches 20%? Achieving earnings targets by firing people is not a healthy solution. I catch a lot of shit for being bearish but fuck em. I am up over 60% with my too cheap not to own stocks and I never got over 40% invested. The bulls can buy the ticket and take the ride but do not bitch to me or ask for a loan when it all goes to shit. You have to be a fucking idiot to believe we are okay right not. We are not.

Stick with the cheap shit. You wont lose money with stuff like FLY,CRE and SGI. Cash on the books is comfortable. You can sleep at night and not lose money. Given Marty Whitman’s approach to distressed debt and track record you have t be an idiot not to put money in his new credit fund. But buy the market? Why not just hit yourself in the crotch with a hammer? Might hurt less in the long run.

Enough of those topics. Life rolls on and it is good. The poets rhyme and the singers sing. The books keep being written and the sun sets with a colorful display of life and its possibilities every night. There are smiles and the greetings of friends. Each day there is a daughters laugh and a sons smile to reinforce the feeling of a job done well and right. I do not claim to be a great parent bit I did not fuck up too badly as the lives and determination of those two attest. Soon they won’t need me any longer. Although that has been the goal I may still shed an imaginary tear or two when that day arrives.

I am living a dream I never thought I would have, I write. I trade and life is good. I have friends that most people never will. I have lived my dream the past two years. If it ends tomorrow at least I had it for awhile. I do not think it will as it turns out I am pretty good at this. I will ride it as far as it goes and try to expand it further. We have on going talks about a fund or newsletter or a combination therein, by years end I will figure it out.

So on it goes. Life is incredible right now. There is a woman who makes me smile every time I think about her. She is very private so I cannot talk about her much. Suffice it to say that the last time I was this happy and thrilled with someone gray hair was nowhere near the issue it is now. No names or details , just smiles.
Life goes on. Sometimes it sucks, sometimes it dances. Markets go up, markets go down. The sun rises (so I am told I like sleep too much to ever see it) and it sets. Even when it hurts life it is glorious.

In honor of My sons 21st birthday, a guide to imbibing like a gentleman

1. If heading out for an evening of imbibing, have cab far in cash in your pocket even if using a credit or debit card for the tab.
2. Learn your bartender’s name. No one likes to be called “hey you.”
3. Unless they piss in your drink, tip at least 20%
4. Run a tab rather than pay as you go so they know you tipped fairly, especially if you intend to be a regular.
5. If you can afford it, a little extra tip at the holidays marks you as one of the good guys and will pay off in spades over the years
6. Bartending can be a tough job. They put up with enough drunken assholes. Do not be one.
7. Fighting in bars is stupid beyond belief. Do not do it for any reason.
8. Most bar fights are over women. If someone hits on your date and she ignores it, you do the same. She is with you and he has to live with the burden of being a dick.
9. If she does respond, congratulate him on his skill in identifying a weak willed shameless slut. Tell HER to pay her own god damned bar tab.
10. A wedding ring on a woman not just no. It is not no fucking was not even if she offers blatantly. It will happen at least once in your drinking career and NOTHING good will come from it.
11. Drinking shots until you puke/pass out/become overtly obnoxious does not make you cool. It makes you one more drunken ass hole that only other drunken assholes will want to be around
12. Drunken assholes make poor friends
13. If you have a friend who likes to get into fights. Leave him home. His reputation will hurt yours.
14. If someone asks for your keys, surrender them. If another drunk thinks you are too drunk to drive, you are. Use the cab fare in your pocket.
15. If for some unfortunate or idiotic reason you are asked to leave an establishment, just leave. You are not going to talk your way back in.
16. Go back in the morning and apologize to the owner/ manager if this happens, especially if you are a regular.
17. If you could not dance or sing when you came in, you cannot dance or song later either.
18. Before leaving with a cougar or chubby always run the idea by your friends. You need a two thirds majority before proceeding. Alcohol often distorts perception.
19. Do not get suckered into buying drinks for groups of girls. Cutting one out of the flock is difficult at best and those $8 cosmos add up quick.
20. There is a difference between funny and obnoxious. Learn the difference. It may save you from a horrendous ass beating one night.
21. Never clock block.
22. If someone does it to you, do not drink with them anymore. They will do it again.
23. Never fruit whiskey. It is inelegant and unmanly.
24. Sport fucking women you meet in bars without a condom is like paying Russian roulette with 5 bullets in the gun. I mean really, do you think you are the only one she has ever done this with? Wrap to ride.
25. If someone you do not know wants to play pool for money, you are probably going to lose.
26. Should you bet on anything, pay your losses immediately.
27. Never give someone a second chance if they do not do the same.
28. There is reason the state runs Keno in bars. That reason is not to give your drunk ass money to pay the tab.
29. If you offer to buy a girl a drink and she switches from draft beer to some shit with an umbrella in it, walk away after paying. You cannot afford the kind of leeching this chick will do to you.
30. If a friend buys a round, it is incumbent upon you to return the favor.
31. Should a friend not reciprocate more than once, quit buying him drinks. Introduce him to the girl in #29
32. If you no longer recognize the language you are speaking, it is time to call that cab.
33. Wearing Ravens gear into a bar in Pittsburgh is probably not conducive to your health and well being.
34. If you and your buddies insist on referring to women as cunts, ho’s or bitches, rest assured that the one woman you set your sights on will overhear you. Dead Man Walking.
35. Be polite to friend’s wives, girlfriends and dates even if you think they are unattractive and bitchy.
36. Odds are the bar stool is not wobbly. You are drunk. Think cab.
37. If drinking at a Dock bar determine what number of drinks requires you to stay away from the edge.
38. If you bump into someone, apologize. If you spill their drink, buy them another one.
39. If you spill your own more than once, it is time to go.
40. Unless you can actually sing (see #17) or are Tom Cruise singing karaoke love songs to random hot chicks is not going to work.
41. Talking on 3rd down or a 3 and 2 count in the ninth inning is just fucking rude.
42. Before using a pick up line, ask your sister how she would respond to it.
43. By the time a woman is 25, chances are she really has heard them all.
44. It is true; some women are hopelessly attracted to assholes.
45. Those women are not worth the high price of becoming an asshole no matter how hot they are.
46. Men will swarm around the tens. Somewhere in that bar is an 8 with a better personality who is would love some attention.
47. Do not bet basketball with Travis Coleman no matter what odds he gives you. Little fucker is lucky although he does owe me $20 from the Boston game.
48. More than one martini will probably have an unfortunate ending.
49. The barmaid is probably not going to fall in love with you.
50. Above all do not be THAT guy. If more than one person mutters “oh shit” or the bartender frowns when you walk in, you are on the way to being THAT guy and need to adjust accordingly

Market Thoughts 3-14

Now that last nights ruminating and bloviating is out of my system (temporarily I assure you) let’s turn our attention and focus to more important matters. We finally got a rally in the stock market this week with 4 actual honest to god up days in a row. Hats off to Doug Kass for a brilliant bottom call. Frankly I am amazed it took so long to develop. Every indicator I have ever used was oversold, in most cases ridiculously so. I starting saying a few weeks ago we were probably due for a good little rally in the market. Day after day I watched the market fail to get a bid and just drop lower. There was a global buyers strike in equities. Now, we finally have a little bounce here, up about 10% in just the last four days. Let the rejoicing begin, the Bear is dead!

Umm.not so fast. In my mind to believe the stock market has pout in a bottom you have to believe that two things tha just do not hold up to examination. First, you have to believe that real estate has stopped going down. Plunging real estate prices and soaring foreclosure rates are the major problem in the economy. According to RealtyTrac foreclosures jumped 30% last month on a year over year basi., More than 10% of homes with a mortgage are at least one payment behind. A little basic supply and demand math tells you that all these homes being dumped on the market are going to push prices lower still in the months ahead. We still have a wave of ALT-A and Option Arm loans to reset this year. A very high percentage of these 2006-2007 loans are going to default. The buyers could not afford the reset payment rate if their life depended on it. Design all the government mortgage bail out plans you want. Short of giving these folks the house or charging 0 %interest for the life of the loan, as well extending the loan to 50 years in term, they are going to default.
Much was made of the fact that housing inventories declined a little in January and February. Except, not really. There is an estimated 700,000 homes in some stage of the foreclosure process, including other real estate owned on bank balance sheets that are not officially listed for sale yet. ZI have seen estimates as high as 3 million total foreclosures this year. That would be about a 60% increase in inventory levels if it comes to pass. The only buying we see in housing is on the courthouse steps these days. So far, there is not enough vulture activity to soak up the supply and allow prices to stabilize.

The second belief you must hold if you think the rally is an actual bottom is that earnings will get better in the second quarter. To those of you who hold such a belief I shall simply ask, “ Are you high?” Where will such earnings growth come form. Retail? Not a chance. Any sales truncations consummated these days are done to levels designed to clear inventories with little or no margin. Financials? Didn’t you just love the Citigroup memo the other day that they were profitable on an operating basis nit including speciall items. Special items like credit losses and asset write-down’s. I have to check this but I am sure that Citi was profitable without considering the gargantuan losses in every quarter since the crisis began. It’s the losses that have sucked up the $100 billion or so of private and public capital the bank has used to keep the doors open. Financials still have a lot of real estate related problems ahead of them in my opinion. Energy? Sure with falling demand and lower commodity prices their earnings should just explode this quarter. Tech? Last time I looked technology companies sold products and services to other companies and consumers, both of whom are scared to death, over levered and not spending money. We justput in the first quarterly loss ever for the companies that make up the S&P 500 and I just do not think the second quarter will be a hell of a lot better. Everyone thought I was drunk or insane when I said last year we would put a 6 handle on the S%P 500. I was right. I think I am right this time as well. We have not seen a real bottom in this market.

I would love to be proven wrong about this because I am tired of wrestling with the daily dichotomy of a poor stock market and the unbelievably cheap asset values I am seeing on a daily basis. My good friend Corban Bates, a budding value investor and recent grad of Hudson High, sent me a spreadsheet last with week with over 100 companies that trade for less then net current asset value. The last time we were anywhere close to that was the net cash bargains created in the internet blow up and the majority of those paid off handsomely over the next couple of years. You can buy stocks like ADPT, TECD, and ESIO for less than the value of the company’s liquid assets. You can literally build a portfolio of 40-50 of these that have a good credit scores, viable businesses and excellent recovery prospects. That’s enough to make me salivate at the possibilities for gains over the next several years.

DIS trade for about two thirds of my appraisal value. That is provided we give no value at all to the film library or character rights and price the parks as raw land and put a 5 multiple on after tax earnings DELL trade for less than two cash. HTH is a pile of cash in the hands of a proven investor in distressed banks and other financials. As a bonus the company landed aback door bank charter and will be able to bid on distressed assets and institutions. Southwest Airlines is stupid cheap, trading below tangible book value. Oil service companies like RDC and PTEN trade below net asset value at these levels. I like the idea of buying the Forest City senior debentures at a 30% YTM and what looks to be more than adequate asset coverage. Whitman has been a buyer and although struggled with everyone else last year, he is one of the best credit analysts and distressed guys around. Assets are cheap and normally I would be looking to go all in here.

So far I have resisted the urge. It’s worked for me as week after week the market has moved lower. We have seen a few little rallies but they sputter and fade. I am trying to play good defense whole accumulating cheap assets. It would be hard to play the traditional value game of buy and hold here as assets that look cheap drop another 505 or so, No mater how confident you are of your analytical ability that type of loss generates acidic vomitosis and takes a long for recovery to occur. Instead, I have held inverse ETFS to offset my long exposure. I have sold calls on rallies. The worst that happens is that the stock gets called away and I have to buy it back. In my former life as retail broker high commissions made this unpractical. Today, paying less per trade than the cost of an all night drink cup on ladies night in a dive bar, it’s not an issue. In the case of Southwest Airlines I bought 2001 $5 calls for $2 to create my position. Southwest, the best run airline in the country over 7 in two years? Hell, book value is almost seven. I ll take the bet every day.
For the most part I am avoiding the financials. I noted the other day that the giant distressed firm Oaktree Capital has almost no exposure to the most distressed industry on the planet. I agree with the choice. The major banks are just highly toxic piles of shit. Book values are fiction. Some of the community banks like SVBI and ANNB are stupid cheap but the on going real estate problems are going to plague them for a while yet. We have no idea what rules, regulations and restriction the banks will have to operate under going forward. Until we do, it is hard to make an educated investment in bank stocks. I love community Banks and traded them for years. I paid for one marriage and two divorces because of community bank stocks. I look forward to doing so again but not until we see the new rule book. Financials will not lead the market to a new bull. There are so many other bargains it is easy to ignore them and stay out of the minefield they created for themselves.

The values are there and I am confident that over a span of years I will get paid. I am aware however that there will be more downward pressure on prices and it will be some time yet before an economic and market recovery is affected. We have a ways to go as a nation. Before the bubble consumer debt was less than 70% of GDP according to reports I have seen. It is almost a 100% today. When we were great and growing a s a country we saved for what we bought. We used debt for large purchases and paid it off as quickly as we could. Wed id not take a credit card and spend our home equity on a trip to Barbados or a new pair of Jimmy Woos. We put money down on our homes, qualified for a mortgage and lived in the damn things. To really put things back on track we have to work our way back to that again. It takes time.

I ll buy a little here and there as things become too cheap not to own. But I m going to hedge my bets and use options as much as possible to create and protect positions. In my mind it is foolish for an investor not to do so. I have no interest in calling a bottom or executing short term directional trade right now. I have seen two many guys and girls carried out on their shield in the last two years to even think the reward could be worth the risks. Protect capital, find deep undervaluations and be damned careful.

Next time out I will cover really important shit like baseball and why the Orioles have a great team of position players but the usual collection of rag arms and no names on the hill will make it difficult to compete again this year. Maybe talk about why a happy many could make the Dodgers the best of the NL and Teixeira taking the Yankees back to the playoffs. Goes without saying that we will examine why the god damn scum sucking rat bastard Red Sox are the very definition of all that is evil and foul in the world today

Books, Broads and Booze

There are times when one must sit around of a Friday eve and watch basketball, sip whiskey and contemplate, if not ruminate about the world and ones role within it. Such a night would seem to be upon us. Translated this means that there is not much going on around the island tonight and the ACC tournament is on. As I begin my latest epistle, Maryland is leading Wake Forest in the second half, my glass is newly filled and all would seem right in the universe for the moment. Of course, I drink faster and the Terps have blown bigger leads so we shall see how long the world stays so happy a place.

As they do so often on quiet nights my thoughts turn to the formative forces and times of my life. By any counts it has thus far been an interesting journey with twist and turns worthy of a novel, provided Hunter Thompson, SE Hinton and F. Scott Fitzgerald had collaborated on such an adventure. I would love to include Hemingway but I haven’t boxed in over 35 years and hunting and such bores me shitless. The 16 year old high school drop out I once was had no idea that life would turn out the way it has. It’s been fun, it’s been educational and quite a ride. Like all thrill rides it has had some bumps and scary times. (Although I am blessed with that special stupidity that is rarely afraid. More like curious as to just what the fuck else is going to go wrong). Somehow I have managed to have a career in an industry no one in my neighborhood had any idea existed. Hell, working on the line at GM or Sparrows Point, maybe a nice government job was the height of our ambitions. Somehow I got form there to hear and one has to wonder what the chief forces have been that drive such a life. The answer of course lies in the 3B’s of my existence. Books, Broads (yeah, yeah I know politically incorrect and all that shit but female acquaintances and companions doesn’t have the same zing does it?) and booze.

Books have been the chief driver of my intellect and what paltry accomplishments I have achieved. I cannot claim that I did anything to spur my love of reading. I was just born this way. My mother encouraged it and each week through my youth we made the trek to the Drug Fair parking lot to check out books form the bookmobile service provided by the public library. I loved that damn thing. Just a big old bus full of books free for the taking. Mom never told us what we could or could not read. Whatever struck us was fair game I could check out some Alistair McLean adventure novels , Churchill’s histories or even some racy Harold Robbins novels. I read everything and anything. I almost looked forward to being grounded when I was a teen. In the summer I would climb a tree in the yard and read for hours, hidden from the world. I was a teenager when I read Solzhenitsyn. I read damn near everything he ever wrote the summer between 7th and 8th grade. I still remember poor old Mr. Taylor calling me a liar when we did the first day of school what did we read over the summer role call. There I stood in cuffed jeans, greasy hair and Chuck Taylors talking about the Gulag Archipelago. The class ended, as did a lot the rest of the year with the hood and the teacher arguing about books while the rest of the class fucked off.

Books have been a driving force in my life. Both parents were brilliant people who were big readers. I was literally born a speed reader. To this day I read just about a book a day. I read everywhere. I have read in schools, churches and jails. I read on the beach, on planes, wherever I find myself. My apartment is a literally cluttered with books most of the time. As my son says “ya know Dad, I feel like I live in the worlds messiest library.” Without them I would probably still be that high school dropout.

Who influences me the most? I think they all did. Shakespeare who opened my eyes to the romance and excitement of words and the world they described. Hunter Thompson ,who taught me to embrace the weirdness of it all. Ayn Rand is how I finally figured out that I was responsible for my own actions. She has some fucked up ideas about relationships and has the compassion of a damn stone but she does exude a passion for life and achievement.

COMMERCIAL BREAK” Maryland did it. We beat Wake and go to the semi’s. The NCAA doesn’t put us in the dance now they should be horsewhipped like the brainless, soulless dim witted fucktards they are. We should play Duke next and I cannot with for another shot as those bastards.Books eventually set my career. As a young salesman I read all the Ziglar and Hopkins I could find. I read the Norman Vincent Peales and Napoleon Hills to discover the power of the mind. Back in the days of my door to door sales career these helped keep me focused on the next door and forget the last three slammed in my face.

A lot of value investors tell me that Ben Graham’s writings were their epiphany. For me it was when my mentor to be (reluctantly I promise you. I was a pain in the ass) gave me a copy of Marty Whitman’s Aggressive Conservative Investor. The concept of asset based investing just made an enormous amount of sense to me. From there I moved on to Graham and Ed Altman and learned equity and credit analysis. I loved Victor Neiderhoffers Education of a Speculator. His unusual and unique way of thinking about markets helped me avoid getting stuck in my ways and approach. My eventual friendship with the author after email exchanges was one of the most positive influences in my life and my career.

The lessons of history are there for the taking. Jefferson to Churchill. Thomas Paine to Ronald Reagan. He stories of the patriots, pioneers and ner do wells that birth a nation. The seriously demented authors of Mein Kampf and the Communist Manifesto who sought to destroy a world. All available for the taking merely by opening a book. Hell, you can damn near learn history by reading historical novels. WEB griffin for one has made the story of the US Military for 1940 through current time’s fun to read. Bernard Cornwells Sharpe novels make European history interesting. Patrick O’Briens Jack Aubrey books bring the life of the British navy alive and understandable.

Then there are the just for fun writers that I read just to escape. Robert parker (although truthfully one could learn to cook and fight reading the Spencer series). Randy Wayne Whites Doc Ford series has become a favorite. Travis McGee remains my hero and role model. If Christopher Moore is not the funniest son of a bitch whoever set paper to pen, he is a candidate. How can you not love a drunken lecher like Charles Bukowski? Dorothy Parker could have easily been the great love of mu life if not for that multi decade difference in birth dates. The poems of Cumming with their aggressive sensuality, Yeats with his lyrical quest for love and freedom, Baudelaire’s Be Drunk, all of these delight the mind and inflame the inner mind.
Books taught me romance. They taught me history, math, passion, and an appreciation of life.They have entertained me. My career path was shaped by them. They are easily the most dominant of the B’s.

Which of course brings us to broads. Women, the fairer sex, the delight of my soul and bane of my existence. Nothing else in life can take you as high or lay you as low as a woman. From the majesty of a first kiss to the soul crushing wine drenched break up that leaves you a blithering idiot for days on end, they are the best and worst of life. It has been my experience that it is far more the former than the latter. I have finds that have been crushed enough times in the dance of romance that they give up and avoid anything that might look like a relationship. Fuck that. There is always a chance that I find the Bacall to my Bogart and that will always be worth the risk of heartbreak (although I could do with out the lawyers and the judges when it turns out to be Sinatra and Gardner instead).

I will always be an Irish romantic. To give up on romance and the mere possibility of finding that perfect partner, she with whom I match on all levels, a partner and lover, would seem to me to take much of the meaning out of life. I confess that at 47 at times the search is a pain in the ass and I have come to loath the early stages of the dating process but sometime there is a click for however ling that continues to offer a glimpse of possibilities. If I never find it, at least I ll have a lot of fun, nights of dancing at the dock bar to blues under the stars, dinners with eyes sparkling in the candlelight,, that first anxious clumsy fingering enrobing, the comfortable sensuality of a familiar lover and all the other moments that are forever frozen in my memory.

Like everyone else my age and still single, there have been successes that did not last as well as spectacular fuckups along the way. Some were my fault. Some were not. From each of them as time passes and the scars fade I find that there are memories that I would trade for the pain of the aftermath. Quit? Not going to happen. Ill take the scars if I can have those moments that do work. A rainy Sunday morning with the coffee and New York Times, Nat King Cole on the stereo playing footsie at the breakfast table. Lying on the beach together barely touching but deeply aware of the touch. A long conversation about hopes dreams and desires over a bottle of three of wine. Goodnight kisses and passionate awakenings. Finishing each others sentences, laughing at private jokes, slow dancing with no music playing, love letters and late night phone calls. Are you telling me the me risk of getting hurt outweigh these, or the possibility they last the proverbial forever? What a chicken shit way to live.

Bringing us of course to booze. Like so many other Irishman before me I am an unabashed drinker. I really don’t give a shit what anyone thinks about it. I laugh out loud at people who tell me that drinking alone is not good for me. Shit I like MY own company. A book with a glass of wine and I m a happy fucking camper. Put a baseball game on turned down low at the same time and that about as happy as I can be with my clothes on. Bring me a bunch of friends and a long boozy dinner at the bar with lots of laughter and I consider that a great evening. Long conversations with old friends over a cigar and a good scotch are among my favorite things. Cruising down the bay with a frosty gin and tonic as the sunset paints the sky is a joyous occasion. I have toasted my weddings with champagne and endured divorce with Rumpleminz( okay so maybe that wasn’t such a good idea). I made the final decision to switch career paths last year over a glass of Famous Grouse. I have fallen in both love and lust over a bottle of wine. I have lifted a glass in a final toast after too many wakes. I miss the days when booze and cigarettes were an accepted part of life I don’t miss work because of the prior night with the exception of March 18th and the day after a jimmy Buffet concert. . I tell every first date I smoke and I drink and I have no attention of stopping. I don’t drink until I can’t work, I have never needed a drink but I do enjoy one. In the poetic words of my Celtic forefathers, fuck you I drink.

The three B’s. Now if I could just find a smart romantic sensuous woman who likes cocktail and books, life would be complete. Until then, I ll have a drink and finish my book.