the foreward to the auotobiograpy I never got around to writing

So as sit here wondering if gazing back though time to discover just exactly how the fuck I ended up here, daily fighting the tides and fates to not resemble a caricature of a mid 40’s oft divorced, smoke too much, drink too much, always falls for exactly the wrong girl kind of guy. I poke gingerly at the corners of history to see if the story is worth the telling. And perhaps it is.



It is, if nothing else, an interesting story, full of sordid moments and overcoming ones own stupidity. I am never sure if the high points of my life were when I was a so-called solid citizen or those moments when I drunkenly consorted with women of a certain morally casual attitude. More and more I suspect the latter. It was Wilde who said we are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars. I have been in the gutter and at times I have glimpsed the stars. I enjoyed both equally as each inspires a different sort of passionate reflection on life. I suppose somewhere in this mixed up collection of memories and lessons learned as well as forgotten there is a story to tell. I doubt that I will be able to deliver it in traditional time line fashion as my brain rarely works that way.



I look into some of the mixed up memories that are pulled form the grab bag and pause even now to savor them, mary jo porter in a hotel room in Akron fucking Ohio, she of the ungodly long legs and born to give head pouty lips; that shit smeared hell hole of a jail cell in Albuquerque new mexico where I spent 36 fucking hours waiting for the bail money to arrive; my first wedding on a frozen house day in Minneapolis, looking at my bride to be thinking, this is some stupid shit you re doing right here ,tim. Problem was she was one of the leading salespeople in our little company. I had to follow through on my drunken promises or lose the revenue. At the time, God knows we needed the revenue. Might have run anyway if she hadn’t been knocked up. Trading yen futures in my office at the crack of dawn while puking last night’s good whiskey into the can under the desk in the little desert wasteland town of Merced to raise a stake to get back on the right side of the world. Unfortunately, the bitch followed me.



Hiding in a shower stall in Blythe Arizona when the cops were trying to find me for passing bad paper (not my checks but check given to us by customers. We had developed masterful talents at passing these gems onto local merchants) all over town while my female co-conspirator of the time, wrapped in only a towel explained to the nice officer that I had left and returned to LA.then she backed the car up to the door and I jumped in the trunk and left town, quickly heading east. Walking snow blind down rush street with the great Mr. Crossman in Chicago at three in the morning accompanied by a sweet little girl from Kentucky with a melodious voice and wondrous ass; the piss and blood feeling a real honest to go someone is not walking away from this street fight, the pain numbing elation when it was me that walked away, the pain numbing morphine from the nice nurse lady when it wasn’t; Driving a purple pt cruiser already drunk out of our minds to find ourselves in a skin head bar in Louisville, Kentucky; poker hands, whiskey bottle, tumbling horses ;a chubby redheaded girl on a boat deck at sundown.







Then there is of course my grand tour of the jail cells and holding tanks of all the grand American cities and towns, the aforementioned Albuquerque. Lubbock, Texas, Hattiesburg Mississippi (a true hellhole with dirt floors and a kitchen trustee with gangrene. I was there 4 days and then spent two days on Bourbon Street drunk as blind, one legged billy goat to chase away the memory), Annapolis and of course the waxters juvenile detention center, my prolonged stay in the Albany state penitentiary at the kind invitation of the state of new york, Mars, Pennsylvania, Los Angeles, Reno, Blacksburg, Virginia, corpus Christi, Dallas (I have a love-hate relationship with the state of Texas. They loved locking me up, I fucking a-well hated it.) Boulder, Colorado, the nicest jail I have ever been in with real carpeting and macramé classes. I am sure I have left some of the fine facilities where I have whiled away the hours off the list but memories fade over time and I just cant recall all of them.



There have been the more socially acceptable memories as well. The birth of my children, of course. But for those who want to make that out to be this wondrous thing of great beauty it s a actually a bloody nasty brutish mess of a thing to actually watch, but to hold my daughter the first time and have those huge brown eyes looking at me, knowing who I was somehow, my son pulled out by c-section and taking his first piss all over the poor doctor lady; watching my daughter at age 12 playing out in the waves during a beach vacation dancing with graceless and timeless beauty as the waves lifted her, the crashing sea pushing her long thick hair forward to frame her face as she rose with the tide, floating along in a oceanic fantasy dance all her own, till the wave crashed over leaving her once again a slightly clumsy pre-teen finding her way in a gravity bound world; my son at third base moving to his right with a fluid grace his father never had, looking like a 10 year old Brooks Robinson; high school graduations, prom nights. My kids have been a grace and a blessing and I just hope I haven’t screwed them up too badly.



And the women, my god the women. Some I loved, some I liked, some, I just fucked. Others I would have liked to have loved or fucked but they were way too smart to get anywhere near me. I would be so much better off without my endless pursuit of the great two-legged North American vaginal support system but, alas, I have never been able to do so. Their look, their touch, their feel. I live for that shit.The chase, the catch, the way their eyes shimmer in the candlelight. The way the look in the morning in the unlikely event I woke up before whoever last nights she was. Hotel rooms, bedrooms, stairways, back seats, the amphitheatre stage of the Fresno zoo. So many places and memories. A plethora of memories of mammories, and the women attached to them. There have been magic moments of falling in love, star lighted nights of romantic bliss and a soft tender kiss. This, of course, being before the fucking hammers comes down and there are myriads of lawyers involved.







There has to be some talk of the stock market in any recall of my short stay here. I have toiled at many things in life. Dishwasher, cook, door-to-door salesman, car salesman and even an insurance agent. But I didn’t begin to come into my own until I realized I was spending more time trading options at the local EF Hutton office than I was selling insurance and sought gainful employment as a broker that I came into my own and started developing into the person I am today. I love the markets and have from day one. I have been privileged to have met and learned from several of the greatest investors and traders alive today, starting with a fellow broker in the Modesto, California dean witter office, a quiet unassuming ex nasd investigator who is a master at the art of value and distressed investing and to this day has the greatest ongoing track record of anyone I have ever heard of. He taught me the ins and outs of this business and although he is content to this day to work as a broker and makes his millions in his own account, eschewing the fund or hedge fund life for the quiet one he has, I consider one of the giants of the investment game. The free wheeling math genius in Weston, the inheritor of the Ben Graham legacy in new York, the car racing high performing value guy in LA, the growth stock guru from Lake Tahoe, the aged almanacer, the shaggy haired new yorker who married a beautiful boxing writer and has done more than okay in the markets, the inventor of the bands, the how I made a zillion trading this crap and moved to the virgin islands, all these and more I have met and learned much from all of them. So naturally we will have to talk some in this discourse on good trades, bad trades, epiphanies and outright fucking stupidities. In the midst of dumping the wanderings of an amorous and avaricious mind onto pages, do we dare discuss such mundane things as stock valuation, using quantitative methodologies to uncover value situation, the creative use of options to enhance returns on stock portfolios, societal and economic trends that affect the stock market and out likelihood for investment success. We must, dear reader, we must.



The friends must enter the picture here as well. From the kids I ran around with in my misspent youth, fighting, drinking, stealing and just trying to get dead or imprisoned before we could figure a way out. Sad to say the number that did not achieve even that very unlofty goal is too high to contemplate too regularly. I look at this mix of friends I have today and its a true mystery how in one mans ramble through life he could have picked up such an eclectic and wonderful group of friends. A semi retired options trade of notoriously regular habits. A tire shop owner whose affection for adult libations and naked women may surpass my own. A fast boat loving fellow broker who has become a fast friend and boon companion on many misadventures the past year or so. An Iranian Jewish futures trader who is so young I have shoes older than he is.but he is smart as hell and a damn good friend. A backhoe operator. A restaurateur. Traders of virtually every stripe in Chicago and new york. Guys from the old office in California I still talk to every day. Couple of doctors. A few nurses. Computer geniuses. Gamblers, lots of gamblers.A cloth shop owner in Kansas, A futures trading geologist. A publisher. Even a couple of lawyers. Ceos, Cfos, plumbers, builders, accountants They are here in Maryland, in New York, In Chicago, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Florida, California, Virginia, conneticut,new jersey, Arizona,Kansas, Lousiania. Next to my children the biggest blessing in my life has been my friends.



There will be stories. Some will be hysterical. Some almost fucking tragic. Some lessons learned, many mistakes repeated. There will be no long drawn out boring discussions of what I learned at sainted ivy university. I didn’t fucking go. Could have. Was too busy being a screw up. Stories of how life on the road forced me to grow up a little and learn how to live. Of true love and failed marriages. Stories of my love and pride for my children, stories of being almost normal for a few years before the hedonistic madness sets back in. Of good trades and bad trades, champagne celebrations and hiding form the margin clerk whole vomiting in disbelief at how fast that went against me. Will there be stories of redemption. Unlikely but one never knows.



Having reviewed this, dear reader, should we write it?



Why the fuck not?

savage beatings and football

Thank Christ. A break in the latest project as the somewhat twisted gold bugs have decided for the third time that we are changing direction on this book and we have to start over from scratch. With the outline I asked for the first day naturally. Ah well so I was three quarters done. I can use the break for fiscal crisis and financial meltdowns. Screw it, the check cleared. So I can take this brief break to write something of my own for a welcome change. We are deep now into fall marching to the precipice of winter and so far it is pretty uneventful. Except of course that sick sick, twisted weekend in Ocean City of which I have only the vaguest memories of long wavy hair, handcuffs, too many Manhattans (is there really such a thing?) shaky’s demented drunken laughter and some incident involving a one-string guitar. It must have been a hell of a time judging form the bruises and police reports.

College football has developed into an interesting year. What should have been an absolute coronation of USC and LSU as football dynasties has been turned into a very tight BCS race with Missouri and West Virginia the highly unlikely 1 and 2 teams in the standings. Maryland has been average with sophomore quarterback Chris Turner being brilliant when facing top ranked teams but woefully less so against run of the mill ACC teams. It does bode well for next year however to have a QB coming back as a junior. They are bowl eligible but does anybody but alumni really want to see this team play again.?I find it doubtful. Navy has been an outstanding offense team but ludicrously bad defensive team. They won what is now the highest scoring game ion NCAA history and finally beat Notre Dame after 43 years of losses to the Irish. Of course the Irish have not been this bad in 43 years but the win still looks good to the Navy faithful. All that’s left is Army-Navy this Saturday.

I know I comment on this game every year and I will try to be brief but I am going to do so again. This is not just a football game or even just the oldest rivalry in college football. Each and every young man on that field was a scholar athlete in high school and had a wide range of choices for higher education and athletics. All of the members of the brigade and the corps made a choice to enter the service if their country after 9/11 and after the start of the Iraq war. They know they are entering wartime service after they graduate. They chose to serve. That defensive tackle lowering his shoulder to take out the halfback of the opposing team may well find himself calling that guy for fire support next year. The safety who has clobbered the quarterback on a blitz is likely to be counting on that guy to fly air support as he slogs through the twisting desert sand as he chases insurgents. Opponents on the field and brothers in arms off it, these men deserve our support regardless of our feelings on the war. Looking at te resumes of past service men tells us that these young men on the filed, and the men and women on the field are the future of our nation. They are smart, they are brave and deserve out applause. GO NAVY!

ACC basketball is starting and the Terps look good. We are cursed with having North Carolina who is good enough to spank the shit out of many pro teams and the always good goddamn dukies in the conference but Maryland is young and coachable. They have played well against top teams this year including hanging in against #1 UCLA and beating Illinois last night in the big ten challenge. It is doubtful they can win the conference but they should be highly entertaining and win enough to get into the dance in march There will be some good college basketball stories this year. The Billy Gillespie era unfolds down in Lexington and we find out Saturday just how good he is when the cats take on Carolina and that phenomenal roster of freakishly good ballplayers. For now, Tennessee has replaced them as the toast of the SEC and if he expects to survive being lynched by the faithful he better be on track and soon. Racing season doesn’t start until April in Lexington and these people have nothing to do but drink heavily and watching Kentucky basketball. Everyone in town knows where Billy lives and if he doesn’t win he can expect to see a brutal pack of bourbon soaked blue-faced savages on his lawn before the winter ends. Memphis is playing a high paced game that leaves viewers winded never mind their hapless opponents. They may be the only team that truly challenges Carolina down the stretch. Going to be fun. Grab a beer and some hot browns and settle in.

Pro football. We aren’t talking about pro football. The freaking ravens are so bad they would struggle in Pop Warner for gods sake. No offense to speak up, no quarterback who has mastered the deeply complicated and complex skill of simply not dropping the fucking football six times a game and grasping the idea that you only thro the ball to people whose shirt is the same color as yours. They face the inhuman New England Patriots team on Monday. The line is 20 points and I think it might be too low. With the exception of a por outing against the Eagles last wee the Patriots have disassembled and disemboweled other teams this year and expect Belichick’s boys to be looking to improve over last week. $0 points might not be enough. The Colts are good but nowhere near the level of New England. This week also goes us Dallas against Green bay for bragging rights in the second best conference. They are both good and are probably playing for the rights to get their asses royally kicked by New England in February.

The stock markets continues to be a violent place with the mortgage and credit problems exploding across the financial markets with a diarrhea like splattering of asset write downs, loan loss provisions and earning reduction. The FDIC reported yesterday that write offs and losses at banks were at historic proportions unmatched since 2002 and 1987. The dollar is going down like a cheap tart in search of diner at Denny’s and if the Fed continues to cut it will continue to do so. I suspect the cuts will continue until fed funds trade unde 30-day tbills, which could have the effect of heightening inflation. The government continues to insist that with the exception of food and energy everything is fine. So out house prices are going down and the cost of eating, driving and staying warm are up. Sounds Perfect.

UI do think stock prices are rather steeply oversold here and may find a way to rally to year end. With that in mind, ad vol at good levels, I like the idea of selling puts on stock we like BGP,ICO,SYMC and CSE look like candidates to pick up premium and if the stock get put to me, I am comfortable owning them here. Along with my studious libertarian anarchist friend from Chicago I like the idea of being long the Swiss franc. Also I think that Eurodollar guy has a worthwhile idea with the money transfer stocks. I will be looking at these with the idea of selling puts to build a position.

In the long run, community banks are setting up a chance to make two and a half shiploads of money over the next few years. Many of what I call Jimmy Stewart banks are at or below book value and historically this has been a great place to buy them for large profits. I still dislike the money center and regionals but the tinys are appealing for the long run. SVBI is under book and a buy.ANNB is getting close. There are hundreds of these little banks across the country and if you get them near book and less than 10 times earnings it’s a steal. These are local guys; they don’t trade Cdos or other toxic derivatives. The only subprime loan they have is the one they made to their shifty cousin Leroy and that can be collected rather simply. One phone call to Aunt Ethel and she will administer a savage beating with a drumstick at the next family dinner until the worthless bastard, stinking of blood and day old gravy, shuffles in to make the loan whole. It’s a low risk business and what I think is a very low risk, high potential investment.

So we stand now on the brink of December the last bright month of the year before we descend into the despicable, dreary and dreadful crappy day of January and February. Soon enough the bay will likely be covered with a sheen of ice and nasty cold crap will fall from the skies and the damn wind will hit harder and quicker than Flay Mayweather ever dreamed of doing. But for now the bright lights began to sparkle across lawns and Giant Blow ups of Santa Clause and goliath size demented looking reindeer and elves dot the landscape. The bright call of the holiday rent the sky. Hey fuckhead get out f my parking spot” What the hell do you mean you don’t have any hooker barbies left. What the hell am I going to tell little Erlene!” Yes the holidays. An orgy of lights, visits from relatives we never really liked in the first damn place, shopping for stuff that will break by new years, Holiday parties where you accidentally end up in a closet with the chubby secretary form accounting and all the blessed events that make up the Christmas season. Here will be parties, bashes in the Chicago and this year’s inaugural bash for the Island of misfit toys. The tire man is getting married this month and one suspects the hangover will be felt by teetotal ling virgins in the woods of Minnesota after that one. I love this time of year as much as I hate it. Too much food, too much booze and just plain too much. I can hardly wait.

It is this time of year when one stops to ponder over ones life. Is it finally the time to admit that one is too old to continue reeling through life, scotch in one hand, cigarette in the other, one eye on the stock ticker, the other roving in search of Ms. Right or her twin sister Ms. Right now? Shouldn’t one be living a more serious, sober life as we head into the second half of life? Oddly enough I always arrive at the same conclusion. “Are you fucking kidding me?” Life is here; it is now. There are friends to make, love to fall into, lips to kiss, books to read, scotch to drink. Sunsets, Jazz, rock and roll, Beethoven and Coltrane, late nights, long talks, laughter to the point of unconsciousness, learning, loving, living and breathing. If this means that I eventually arrive at the pearly gates with my rock hard liver in a wheelbarrow and my lungs bleeding out my ears, it seems a very low price to know that while I was here, I lived ferociously. So bring on the holidays, light the tree, ring the bells and lets get on with it.

Supposedly tonight will be the first game of this years World Series. The Boston area weather report casts some doubt upon that with an 80% chance of rain, but still it is timefor the fall classic. This years series has some great story lines. American leaguer versus national league. Junior circuit against the senior circuit. Good versus evil. Those scum sucking no good rat fink bastra..oop.. I mean the Boston red Sox with the best record in baseball against the unlikely Colorado Rockies. Boston's dominance of the league and of Colorado record breaking 20 wins in 21 games to get into the series. The Rockies were thought to be out of it as September rolled around. The Red Sox almost blew a 7 game lead with three weeks to go in the season. It has the making of, well lets be honest it has the makings of a boston blow out. They are too good. I hate them. I detest their trend following fleecer of the public owner. I wish Josh Beckett was an Oriole and that Curt Schilling would take his damn bloody sock and go back to the national league. I wish David Ortiz would get sucked into some magical vortex that made him disappear for the next week,. I wish, like Sampson, Manny Ramirez would get a haircut and lose the ability to hit a baseball. But, all of that is unlikely. They have the hitting, the starting pitching and as long as they keep Eric gagne away form the mound, the bullpen. Although Paelebon will probably have to get his era down. After all in the post season it ids a lofty 0.00! I hate them. I will be rooting for the Rockies. I suspect I will not like the outcome of this series. My only hope is that Big Poppi cant be DH in the National League Park. The man can hit but give him a glove and interesting things happen. However, the rat bast..I mean the Sox have home filed advantage so thats not really an edge. More of a delusion.



So tonight the field at Fenway Park( another reason to hate the Sox. What a great stadium!) will be draped in the familiar red and white and blue bunting. A celebrity of some sort will throw out the first pitch. It will be the world Series in all its glory. Except it wont. Today the SUper Bowl looms much larger across the sports landscape. SO does the NBA finals and the Daytona 500 for that matter. Baseball is losing its lofty perch as Americas pastime. Today we prefer the NFL with alls its violence,pageantry and barely dressed cheerleaders. MUch as ROmans eschewed chariot racing for Gladiators we have traded the stately game of baseball for the rock and roll fest of football. Please don't get me wrong. I like football. But I still have that decade long love affair with baseball. Not that , with my track record I have any knowledge of this, but I think baseball is alike a long term spouse for me. She's is perhaps fading with the years and to others she is not a s beautiful as she once was. But I look at her and see only the beautiful smiling young woman she once was.



I think back as I sit here to the first World Series I can remember. The Dodgers-Orioles of 19966. I was 5. I didnt know the combination of Drydsdale-Koufax were supposed to wipe the birds off the face of the earth. I just knew all my friends Dads were worked up about it and spent a lot more time playing catch with us and talking about the Orioles. I did not know it was considered something of a miracle that the Orioles won in 4 straight. I didnt know that it would be the last time Sandy Koufax would explode form the mound, curling and hurling his entire being into an exploding fastball or devastating curve ball. I just knew that my friends and I were enthralled and entranced by each and ever pitch. I fell in love with the game.I remember 1968 with the glorious matchup of Gibson and Lolich. Unfortunately I can still recall 1968 with the powerhouse Orioles being dropped in their tracks by the mets. 1970 with Brooks becoming inhuman to the point of godliness on the third base line, the return of heartbreak in 1971 with Roberto Clemente almost single handidly beating the Birds. The ,ong haired brightly colored Oakland teams of the mid 0's. Reggies three home runs to become Mr. October. I still cant hear We are family without recalling our second los to the pirates in 1979.Cal Ripken catching the final out of the 1983 series just days after my father passed away. One of my most vivid memories is reaching for the phone to share the moment with him before I realized he was no longer there to take the call.Th earthquake series when I lived in central California. There are literally too many to recount here.



Life has changed a lot since then. It was, I suppose, the legendary oft cited simpler time. We played baseball from sun up to sound down back then Kids play today but usually in organized little league and the game takes a second place to soccer and lacrosse here in the mid atlantic.No organized ball for us. In the street, the field across the street, the common area of the apartment complex. We didnt care where. We played with baseball cadged and cajoled from parents for the dollar was a big deal for a new ball. We played with tennis balls liberated from the courts of the upscale development across town. We played with wiffle balls and duct taped them when the splintered until the resemble silver orbs hurtling through the afternoon sky. Gloves were carefully oiled and wrapped each night.If it was raining on a Saturday we watched Joe Gargiola and the NC game of the week to watch teams from across the league play. We fell asleep with transistor radios under the pillow to listen to the RObinson Twins, Belanger, Powell, McNally, Palmer and Cuellar restore justice and righteousness to the universe in the form of 3 run homers and blistering fastballs.There was no umpire and balls and strikes were argued wit the intensity of the Mccarthy hearings.Baseball. We loved, played it, watched it, listened to it, talked about it. A simpler time.



Today, it moves too slow for most. The NFL and the NBA are the dominant sports. if kids play pick up games its probably hoops. Little kids dont get to watch in breathless wonder as the home team takes the filed in a blaze of popping flashbulbs against the red white and blue backdrop of the first game of the series. They are long in bed by the time the first pitch takes place. Life has changed. I look at the world around me populated with taxes,bills,ex-wives, ex-girlfriends, wish they were girlfriends, wanna be girlfriends and miss those days when all you need were a couple of friends, a battered mitt and dirty much abused rawlings to experience the sublime. I look at my son and feel a little sad that he never had a passion for game not involving a TV and controller.life has changed. hell, look at the markets. back then you had the American League and the national league and you had stocks and bonds. Today we have futures, options, options on futures, swaps, stradles, hedge funds, fund of funds, CMs CDO's and virtually every other derivative and contrived trading instrument you can think of. It is a small wonder that faster paced sports have replaced the timeless game of baseball. Still. I miss it.



I will sit this week and watch the games. I shall cheer, perhaps in vain, the Unlikely Rockies. I will curse the Red Sox. I will think back to a much simpler time. In all likelihood I will cook some hot dogs to watch the game. Instead of the cola in a paper cup of my youth it will be scotch in lead crystal glass. But a t some point I will, I hope reconnect with that little boy who held his breath as the teams took the field and the game got underway. With the teenager who could still be captivated away from teenage cynicism when Brooks Robinson stopped your heart with his spectacular play.With the young expectant father who missed his own. With all the moments and times and stages of my life when in October baseball was king and the World Series was serious.

life markets and the damn red sox

Ah! Sweet Autumn, with falling temperatures, crisp breezy afternoons..my ass. There is no fall here to speak of so far. Temperatures continue to be up near 80 and after only the briefest of respites the air conditioner continue to growl along in a cash consuming frenzy. I now spend more a month to make sure that the wayward sons Asian princess of a girlfriend is comfortable and doesn’t suffer from seating or having her toe polish run than I used to make in a good year. Weather aside we have moved in the autumn sports time of the year. Like the weather it has been something of a disappointment. In proof that there is no justice, divine or otherwise in the world, the scum sucking red Sox and their owner have defeated, nay crushed the brave Indians (Brave my rear end. They folded up like French Soldiers who heard rumors a German coughed in the night). The Trend follower continues to suck up tens of millions a year from unsuspecting investors and use it fund the teams bloated payrolls and the obnoxious fans feverish frenzy for all things red Sox (How a trend follower can continue to lose money when stocks, commodities, bonds and oil trade at continual highs is beyond me but he does. At least he is consistent.) If there were any justice in the world Congress would declare nuclear war on the red Sox nation. As usual, I digress. The ravens have been exposed as a below average team. The alleged offensive genius running things has avoided using his running back (lowest average carries per game among top five rushers but tops in average gain per carry) in favor of a passing game directed either by the weak armed starter or the weak minded back up. The bills! The average Pop Warner 150lb tem could give the Bills a solid run. Not the ravens. Navy continues to play well but was perhaps a tad too optimistic in their scheduling. It is brutal this year. Still, they are winning overall and actually have a chance to beat a truly awful Notre Dame team. Although not a fan, I cannot help but admire the juggernaut that is the New England Patriots. They don’t beat other teams. They annihilate them. Tom Brady could order Chinese take out form the pocket and have time to finish the fortune cookies. The defense is evil in cleats. Why they cheated with the tapes I have no idea. These guys can beat anybody. The Patriots-Colts game this year could one of the true classic if the game. Basketball madness has come and gone and very soon now we can get college hoops with all its intensity. Maryland does no look to stack up well in the ACC but they didn’t stack up well the year they won the title either. North Carolina remains a beast, Georgetown looks strong again and the Gillespie era begins under high expectations in Kentucky. Should be a good year and perhaps take my mind off the inevitable win by the damn red Sox in the series. They are too good and I strongly suspect the Colorado fairy tale ends next week. The World Series at Chez Melvin shall be one of hurled epitaphs and whiskey glasses as I forced myself to be subjected to the vile course of events and somehow endure the pain.



The evil, foul souled entity known as the stock market is finally showing an inability to digest the ever-growing bad news from the financial sector. Virtually every large and midsize financial institution has reported markdowns form a portfolio of cancerous loans and rancid mortgages. MTG, RAD C, BAC, BSC. They all have it and I suspect it gets worse. They reported the losses they had to hoping they go away by next quarter. They will not. There is continual talk of a Bernake put in the form of another rate cut. It remains my opinion that dropping rates will be both inflationary and disastrous for the US dollar. It may give impetus to a short-term rally but the long-term impacts could well be disastrous, resulting in stagflation. It took almost a decade to beat back this huge appetite to of the slovenly beast the last time we faced it, and I fear it could take as long if we allow it to reemerge. Volatility is picking up and ranges widening in the SP 500, two factors I have found predictive in the past of a market change in the offing. I see SP 1420 as the next important downside level.



I continue to own the staples. Low price to book beauties ADPT, EIHI, GNCI and WSCI remain good buys. I am adding to the commercial REITS, my favorites being NFR, CSE, GNV and JRT. I like and am buying or selling puts on tech favorites SYMC, MOT and ATML. I was put shares of CHIC and am selling class against my position. Severn Savings (SVBI) continues to fall and very close to making the gotta buy it list. I am not adding any new names here but I will continue to add stocks as I find them On the short side, both myself and some of the smartest traders I know agree that shorting FXI, the china index ETF is one of the greatest ideas we have ever seen. It has doubled sine August. OF THIS YEAR. It has gone form the 100 area to over two hundred in less than two months. We also agree equally it is going to lead to our total financial meltdown resulting in all of us living in a tent along the concrete banks of the Chicago River. I argued for a tent relocation to Key West or Naples but we eventually agreed we needed to be in the windy frigid city in order to access the type of fast paced financial info that out us there in the first place!



I want to reinforce a central idea of all this. The economic outlook was bleary. Oil prices were at all time highs. We were mired for much of the decade in a senseless costly somewhat imperialistic military conflict. We had a succession of idiots who were either corrupt, stupid or weak as Presidents through the decade. There was a continual stream of scandals among our legislators. The euphoria of the late 1960s had ended up with the result of financial vomiting. Stock prices fell; there was inflation, a weak economy (holy shit-this sounds awfully familiar). The negative attitude remained all the way up until l the hostages were freed in Iran on the day of Ronald Reagan’s inauguration in 1980). However stock prices bottomed in 1975 and is was one of the greatest opportunities of our or any other lifetime! If we do continue to cut rates, debase the dollar and knock the stock market down I think e will be positioned for the same opportunity. Financials, particularly small banks will offer incredible risk reward opportunities for long-term value investors. There will be chances to pick up great companies at great prices and a chance to build large amount of wealth going forward. In the interim we own a lot of good companies at rock bottom prices and are enjoying a great dividend flow. Goes to hell in a hand basket? GREAT. We are going to get rich (er) over the coming years. Doesn’t? GREAT. We already own cheap stocks with tremendous upside and little risk of permanent capital impairment due to healthy balance sheets.



The island continues to slouch towards winter. Despite the warm weather most boats are put away or scheduled to be. Only the USS Greenberg (a 42 foot cruising craft of great beauty with a safety record only slightly better than the Titanic) to spent the winter in the water for sunny day cruising. The fast boats don’t really have that option and are on lifts anxiously awaiting the firs warm day in May. Sunday football gatherings are marked by equal amounts of beer drinking and Billick cursing, except among the Redskins fans who are celebrating the fact that their team is actually winning and looks like they might have actually know how to play the game. For the first time in several years, the red and gold can gloat over the fallen beaten bodies of the purple and black. So far I have had a decent football year. I have been to a Redskins game and went with the Chicago bunch out to Iowa for the Iowa Illinois game. It was an interesting drive with much conversation about how bad the market is, what’s wrong with the world at large. The highlights were an unscheduled stop at Ronald Reagan’s boyhood home and a great time tailgating at 7 in the morning with Mike Ott and his fellow Iowans. Have to confess all those acres and miles of corn a little creepy and was waiting for Joe Pesci and the children of corn to emerge from the fields with shotguns and hoes to wreak havoc on mankind.



A friend and I had a chance to discuss such heady ideas as the meaning of it all. In the end we decided that like Baudelaire we thought the answer probably had something to do with wine and a passion for life. My friend confessed however that the questions of how, what and why still troubled them. In closing I leave you my answers (doubtlessly wrong but I thought I would take a shot at it.)



what

for all its aches, pains, confusion and messiness, life at its core is more than we think it can be. For every heartbreak there is a first kiss, for every loss there is a gain, for every death a birth. Most people will avoid the fear and the pain and thereby miss the beautiful and the sublime. They will spend their lives in nice safe jobs to avoid risk. They will watch endless hours of insipid dramas and ridiculous sitcoms rather than read and possibly discover truths about themselves and he world they live in.





The what



Life itself. Mozart, John Lee Hooker and Stevy ray Vaughn. A kiss, making love, walking hand in hand down a country road or city street. Life is Beethoven and Shakespeare. It is Robert Parker and randy Wayne White. It is a look across a crowded room that suddenly is occupied by just two. It is a child’s smile and a friend’s tear. It is the taste of wine on lover’s lips. It is a sunrise, sleeping in on a rainy morning. It is loud rock and roll on a Saturday night. It is mathematics; it is literature, Led Zeppelin and Handel. It is a cup to drink from lustfully. As renowned drunk, author and liver of life Charles Bukowski once wrote "We are here to laugh at the odds and live our lives so well that Death will tremble to take us.” Life is vibrant, romantic, seductive and full of so many possibilities that we often cannot contemplate them all without offering thanks to whatever god we worship in thanks for it

How

It should be lived with great zest and little fear. To live in a such a way that we race into deaths waiting room bottle of win in hand, lipstick smear (location entirely dependent on gender) light up a cigarette and declare loudly to the timid souls " DAMN! That was fun. What’s next?

Why?

Because you are human. Alone of the earthly creatures you have been given the capacity to think to read, to reason. You have the capacity to love and the ability to be intimate for reasons other than procreation. Because you have a big brain and opposable thumbs. Whether by divine decision or evolutionary aspects you and you alone are designed to appreciate and enjoy all that sits before you.

note to a friend dealing with fear

I wish I could help you with this but ,unfortunately we must each deal with and face fear in our own way. There have been a lot of studies that show that most humans are more motivated by fear of loss than by possibility of gain. I find this interesting and think it in large part accounts for the state that thoreau calls quiet desperation. Everyone gets afraid. Including me. Every time I lever up my account to put on a big trade, push all in a poker game, sign a new contract or look into a womans dancing sparkling eyes and realize that not only am I strongly attracted to this woman,that we have so much in common we could be best friends as well as lovers, and just enough differences to keep it interesting, I get that pinch of fear that runs up the spine and makes the stomach flip like a circus bear on steroids. The mind calls up images of times in the past when the when result was not so good. I have gone broke from bad trades and I have been heartbroken. And guess what? I didnt die. It sucked but it didnt last.

I try at such times to focus on the fact that most of the trades have worked to the point that I can live comfortably and afford all my wonderful bad habits and addictions, keeping the book shelf full and the liquor cabinet stocked. I think of all the nights and times of wonderful experiences I never would have had if I had not taken the leap of faith in myself and the romantic nature of the universe. The biggest question is to figure out the probabilities of success and focus on that. If I have a 7-2 unsuited I should probably fold the hand. If the numbers are wrong in any way I should probably forgo the trade. If the woman is not literate,not adventurous,not sensual or romantic I should probably walk..or perhaps run...away. But if the odds are in my favor, and conditions exist for profit be it monetary or just perhaps the anticipation of nights dancing to blues bands under the stars, of quite nights of good food, wine, conversation and intimate moments and thoughts....then fear needs to be pushed aside.

To allow fear of loss, of death, or heartbreak is to lose our ability to live. I would rather die broke and heartbroken in the gutter than to fail to embrace all the incredible possibilities some benevolent deity scattered in front of us....

or to put it more succinctly

Fuck Fear

5 year plan

It was Warren Buffet who once commented that he invested as if the stock market would be closed for the next 5 years. I am amazed how often I hear this remark repeated by alleged value or relative value investors/. I am both amused and amazed be hearing these guys talk about holding stocks three to five years and then find in the Morningstar report they have 150% turnover in their fund. As for individuals, much of the research shows that investors hold the average mutual fund less than three years, never mind individual stocks. But, if we are buying stocks as a business and not just speculating on short term price movements, that is exactly the approach we should be using (I am not knocking short term speculation. I like it as much as the next guy and frequently write about using options to trade value but that’s not what THIS article is about).

Right now it looks pretty ugly out there. Thanks to the bernake bust up, the dollar is falling, interest rates are rising, energy costs are climbing and the backdrop for the US economy is just frugly. It is easy as investor to get paralyzed when we consider all that can wrong out there. However I decided to take a look at this as if today was it for the next five years. After today the stock market is going to close and not reopen for trading for five years. There will be no further daily price updates and the only idea of how you were ding was how well the business itself was doing. This means that getting the price and the business right is going to be crucial for success. Pretty much leaves out the big growth names. At 40 times earnings you can not uy a shorter-term glory shock like Apple. The chance that someone comes along and upstages them in the IPOD or IPHONE markets over 5 years is too risky. Goldman. Maybe. But what if rates keep rising and decimates their private equity and debt trading platforms? Five years is a long time in the trading business. A lot can go wrong and kill the value of our franchise.

So what to do? Lets find some great companies at a good price and a few good companies at fire sale prices. Seems to me that that is the best way to profit over the 5-year pal. First, I say lets grab up a few shares of COMS. The beleaguered networking stock trades today at $3.55 and about half of that price is in cash. They have exposure to both china and on line video, two huge growth areas over the next five years. Next, more tech in the form of ADPT. The data storage company trades at 3.78 has a book value and has over 3 bucks a share in cash. Further Steel Partners is the single largest shareholder with over 15% and Warren Liechtenstein and friends have a pretty good history of unlocking value in stock. I would also add share of EDCI. Decent company in a crappy business. CD’s and DVD’s are pressured more everyday by online content. However we have a stock at 1.35 or so over a buck in share in cash and total book value of 1.50. They also have 4 dollars a share of NOLS that can be used going forward. Chapman Capital and Third Point two activist investors of some note are aware of the value of this situation and are large shareholders.

One thing the bernake Bust has done is steepening the yield curve and I suspect he will cut again to make it steeper still. This should allow the major banks to capture the net interest margin and earn their balance sheets healthier. One major beneficiary of this is going to be the small banks that didn’t really have a problem to start with. Many small banks share have started trading down near book value and historically this has been a great place to buy. First a couple of local guys. Severn Savings, SVBI, is consistently ranked of one of, and frequently the best savings institutions in the country. These are smart local guys. They know the real-estate markets, they know all the builders and developers, where to lend and when to say no. Further they are expanding their commercial loan business to insulate against too much real estate dependence. The stock is just under 1.5 times book and although I might normally let prices come off a bit, the hypothetical market is going to be closed and these guys should prosper over the next five-year. Selling at just 9 times earnings it seems a great inclusion to the five-year plan. Same with Annapolis National Bank (ANNB) at 1.3 times book value. The Annapolis area is unique in that we have lots of real estate demand from turnover in State, Local and federal government and of course, we have the only Chesapeake Bay right at our doorstep. It is a very vibrant are that has escaped real estate collapses in the pat. With the steeping of the curve local banks should thrive and prosper. From the slightly larger city of Manhattan comes BERK. This a 900 million in assets bank that trades at book value and does business primarily in Manhattan, an area also seemingly insulted from real estate woes based on demand.

From the grab bag lets add shares of GNCI. The infrastructure roads and bridges in this country are going to need massive repair and rebuild in the next five years. Trading at book value with solid earnings, this manufacturer of heavy equipment for highway construction and environmental control equipment should benefit handsomely. EIHI is just a high quality well run insurance company. Offering primarily workers comp and group benefits, the stock trades below book value, 10 times earnings and has a small dividend of 1.3%. Since I think coal becomes more and more of a player in the energy arena I will also add shares of ICO. The bonus ere is that the majority owner is Wilbur Ross ands he ahs a long tradition at magnetizing his assets over time. In the 4 dollar area the stock is cheap and appears to have a good future.

In the area of larger companies that are good business at good prices I like CHIC. The retailer of ready to wear for the younger set has a 20% return on equity, 87 million in cash with no debt and generates over 88 milliohm more every year. I also like Motorola here. The company has struggled off late but it is still a player in mobile technology. Also betting the Carl Ichan gets paid off over the next five years strikes me as a god bet. Energy will continue to be an issue going forth and at less than ten times earnings, driller PTEN should be a beneficiary. FSS, the maker of safety and security systems, fire apparatus industrial vacuums and street sweepers seems very cheap here and the heavy insider buying would indicate I am not the only one who thinks so.

So there we have it. Some stocks that I would be thrilled to own at these prices, tuck away and forget about for five years confident that we paid a low price for a portfolio of good business that will be worth more than they are today by a significant sum. In addition they all have great balance sheets, very little debt and there’s a greatly reduced risk of permanent loss of capital over time. I have talked to some bulls who say that the rate cuts and 4th quarter earnings will drive us substantially higher. I have talked to bears that think the parties are over and we are going to have a huge sell off soon. The stock market is party mode, the bond market and the dollar look like newly divorced guys under a neon moon so they are so pessimistic. Who’s right? I don't really know. My suspicion is they both are. We ll get a continued rally off the rate cuts, earning for the third quarter will be okay and we ll go a bit higher. However the bill in the form of inflation and reduced economic strength will get paid early next year. However, no matter what happens in the short run I think this portfolio of stocks will be much higher 5 years from now. If I am investor and conducting myself in a business like fashion that should be all I care about. Day to day and week to week don’t matter as long as we have great balance sheets and are able to improve the underlying business over the years.

Next time I ll look at the current environment form a trading angle and see what conclusions I can draw. You can be both you know. A five-year portfolio and a trading portfolio. That way if you blow it all out trading you know the five-year plan will bail you out over time. If you do well trading..BONUS!

move to fall

As measured by the REBC(Red Eye’s Bikini Clock) summer is officially over. We had one of the worst and best rides of the summer this weekend so it was a fitting ending. On the way to Baltimore we hit turbulence from ships exiting the harbor and quickly turned from boaters to small airborne craft pilots. At one point I looked back to check on our passenger and he was in the fetal position of the boat begging for mercy from the boating gods. Which was granted in the form of flat waters all the way back across the bay and we had three boats running flat our all the way back in the best ride of the summer. As we sat later at the bar of Lisa’s small plate attempting surgery on my finger from the latest and last of summers injuries with tweezers, a paperclip and scotch, The Tic-Tac kid and I shared a toast to a great season with lots of boating, a sprinkling of pretty girls and liberal doses of good times and good friends. So, away go the flip-flops and shorts; trade the red for white, gin for scotch, break out the tennis shoes and blue jeans. Baseball is headed to the stretch and the genetic misfits known as football teams capture our fancy as we head into the early days of fall. It was a great summer but given the injuries sustained in the Squirrel Wars of 2007, the the curious incident of the whiskey and biting dog incident, and now the holy god not only is that the biggest splinter I have ever seen that’s all the way under you nail accident (FYI-Doctors lie.4 Novocain needles in your finger is not a little stick. It is a big painful evil,nasty mother of all sticks) and other assorted missing nails, banged bones and torn bits of flesh another couple of weeks of summer may have well been the death of me.



Which brings us to the stock market. It makes less sense than my personal life at this point. At least there I understand the cause and effect of what happens (Basically, I am an idiot and set in my ways. As I have been given to understand I am also arrogant, obnoxious and condescending. And they say it like it’s a bad thing!). But I confess to being a little confused by the market and its seeming disconnect form the real world. As long as you do not eat or use energy, there’s no inflation. However a trip to the grocery store shows me that food prices are the highest I can recall seeing. Oil is at a new high. Back out auto gains driven by model year discounting and rebates and retail sales in Augusts back to school period were down. The consumer has depended on the housing ATN for the last several years, but with the credit dry up and in some areas declining values, that bank is closed. But everyone now expects the Fed to cute rates later today. This allegedly will reaffirm consumer confidence. But it also has the impact of bailing out banks and funds from the consequences of stupid decisions. Apparently takes risk and win. Great! Take risks and fail? No worry that’s what the fed is for. Unless you are an individual who took a jumbo two or three year Arm with a teaser rate and are going to see you mortgage rate double in a few months. You are just screwed. In the face of this the stock market is within 4% of all time highs. Lehman creates earnings in excess of estimates by changing their tax rate. Rally time in spite of the fact that revenues fell 47%.



Most of the activity I am seeing is in the indexes, leading me to believe that short tem money continues to dominate stock market action. The focus is on how will we react to the fed today, or ABC ‘s revised earnings SWAG. 4: 15 IS long term. Great company trading at book profitable pays a dividend, buying back shares and insiders buying the open market. Who cares? Special situation with a high-annualized yield? Sold it to pay margin calls on debt positions. Convertible preferred paying over 10% with strong management. No interest. Index baby. Bid em.



I have heard convincing arguments from Louis Navellier and even Jim Cramer of late that we are going to move into a market that favors value over growth. Here a shocking statement coming fromm me. I think I agree with them. Value has outperformed growth for over 7 years, a pretty much unprecedented run. Usually the periods are much shorter. This run has been fueled by falling rates and rising housing prices that have pushed traditional value industries forward and allowed for easy takeovers and refinancing of under performing stocks. Companies were bought on credit at stupid multiples of assets and earnings and launched the prices of cheap, undervalued stocks. Those days I think, are over. Having said I agree with the statement, now we have to look at where does this growth come form. It is not going to be tech unless corporate America gets a lot looser with the cap ex checkbook. We have already seen by the IPOD price cuts that consumers aren’t going to pay up (as they did in the past for new toys. The toy budget is already pretty stretched.) I think areas like heavy construction rebuilding the country’s badly stretched infrastructure perhaps. I like GNCI here and it sells at valuations I like. Coal should be a growth industry in years ahead as we look for ways to get away from foreign energy. Coal to liquid technology could play a big part in making coal a growth story. I like MEE, CNx and ICO here. Growth will come from new areas not yesterdays growth story. We will have to look for them. My other problem is that I think we have a few years of downright sloppy markets ahead. I don’t see how we cant. We have priced stocks for perfection in an imperfect world. It’s going to be tough to deal with and take some innovative and adaptive thinking to not just survive but earn good absolute returns. How do we do this? Selling put options on market sell offs on stocks we like. (A caveat here, I think it will be necessary to add some trader think to our methods and be willing to own the stocks put to us and use covered calls to trade around the positions and exit at a profit. I am kind of anti buy and hold here; also don’t post minimum margins. Post the full price of the underlying stocks). I think trading the value line 1 and 2’s under ten, buying on sell offs in the overall market and selling the next rally will work. The Dorsey Wright high low indicator has been successful in the past at timing shorter-term entries and exits in the stock market. We need to watch it closer. I remain very impressed with Navelliers Portfolio grader pro service that’s spots institutional buying in individual stocks. Paying attention to the grading of our stocks could materially improve our entries and exits and therefore on profits. It is going to be harder to make money for the next few years. When we run our screens finding stocks with profits and dividends trading below book, we are probably going to have watch our market entry point as well as institutional activity in the stock a lot closer than years past and be quicker to trade than we used to be. Further we should try to focus on areas that offer earnings growth because I think that’s where the money will flow. Just cheap isn’t going to be enough anymore. It’s going to have to grow as well. The idea isn’t to beat the market. If stocks are down 20% and I am only down 10, it is not a win. It’s a loss. You cannot eat relative performance.



So we move into fall now and look forward to crisp days and cool nights, breaking out the blankets and wamr socks. Sweatshirts are going to replace tee shirts and its just about time to shut the pool and clean the chimney in anticipation of crackling fires ad good red wine. After a wandering summer, the Great Girlfriend Hunt of 2007 begins in earnest (although hopefully out the (mostly self inflicted) weirdness of the 06 hunt). The Yankees and Boston are keeping it interesting; Detroit refuses to go quietly into the September night. The ravens beat the hated Jets, The redskins are surprisingly 2-0, and navy is not as good as years past but still fun to watch. Of course, there is the downside of Notre dame being truly horrible but we have to take the good with the bad. The leaves will turn here in the Mid Atlantic in a few weeks as well as all over the northeast with a spectacular splash of colors, giving us an injection of color before the gray of winter sets in. There is much to like about fall with the only real drawback being the women wear so damn many clothes!



We are going to get a rate cut today. I just do not think we are going to like it as much as current sentiment thinks we will.

an oldie

found this one lurking in some old files

My what a wonderful week we have had around these parts. We have learned al about dow theory. We have learned that it works almost all the time..except that it really doesn’t, it isn’t really a trading strategy and its kind of sort, just maybe a little. Or perhaps even a lot subjective.We have learned that denny mclain and pete rose were bad people who did bad things but it might not have been their fault because its well done that pitching too many innings or playing hard on the diamond makes one make bad nets on clubs,spades and even athletic contests.We have learned that phd students don’t like when phd holders makes jokes at their expense. To everyone’s shock and horror, we discovered that retail comp numbers don’t tell us much about where the stock price is heading.(kudos where due..)that was a nice piece of work). It was deeply disturbing to discover that a number cherished and admired by wall streeters was worthless.it was revealed that Americans and british don’t have the same sense of humour.apparently george carlin is not as sophisticated as monty python…just funnier.they do however think homer simpson is an okay guy.

However I must take great issue with the discussion of American beer as a poor product and American women as..what was the phrase..stroppy? As the lists in house expert on American drinking habits, along with my dedicated colleagues drs crossman and Hillman..although it is my understanding that dr Hillman is retiring from the active research field his contributions must be noted and appreciated…..and American woman and their relative levels of ..umm//stroppiness, I feel I must intervene to correct some misunderstandings and wrong assumptions in the data collection and analysis process.

Dr millers, whose work in finance,gambling and now drinking and womanizing I much admire and look forward to all his contributions, suggestion of a field trial is indeed a wonderful thought. However he has structured his control group in such a way to almost guarantee disaster. First, NEVER use fosters as a control. It is a good beer, however its US based advertising campaign is full of blond Australian surfer types and outdoor crocodile killers. The image that this creates in our quarries mind will be rather difficult for your average khaki and polo shirt type to overcome. If you are in one of the Dr Melvin under the bridge hall of fame establishments and proffer a fosters, the can is entirely too large. Far better to have the young lady bounce a 12 oz off your head for offering her some namby-pamby foreign crap in a funny looking can.As for the use of Colt .45 40 ouncer, this is fraught with peril. If it is accepted, you are on the wrong side of town and death is imminent. If the lovely of your intention accepts the cold 40 - one suggests you slam your own drink down and begin the process of hail marys or whatever archaic pre death ritual your religion practices.The French champagne may in fact be the worst of the bunch..if like so many of us you consider out right rejection and public humiliation to be worse than death.You see, we Americans have trained our women to understand that the proffering of expensive bubbly liquids and the acceptance thereof is an binding contract for immediate and prolonged sexual activity. Should you offer this to a lovely as a first drink, it would be considered extraordinarily forward and you can expect to find yourself red faced and wearing the remains of whatever watered down sucky American beer she was drinking.

When examining the drinking happiness and stroppiness factor of american women, one suggest the following control groups. The best test is of course the lovely with two empty miller lite bottles in front of her and a third on the way, accompanied by empty shot glasses of jaegemeister. It is preferred that she have the ring tan or other indicator that suggests the recent departure of a significant other.This is a young woman in a decidedly non stroppy mood who is drinking beer for the purpose we Americans use it for…to other more sophisticated overseas brethren we leave discussions of hoppiness and after taste..over here we use the stuff to lubricate the good times and unleash libidos.This young woman will consume enough watered down American crap beer and foul german rocket fuel to forget her troubles and begin making up for lost time having good times. The other worthy prey..I mean field subject is for course the cosmopolitan drinking female. If she is over 35, she has long ago decided what she likes and wants and you will know where you stand 30 seconds after you offer a drink….if she is under 35, she is a sex in the city junkie and feels a social contract to drink too much and have sex with relative strangers….not a bad character trait for our research studies. To be avoided at costs out the fruity umbrella drinking flocks…these are girls night out types and like herds of wildebeest in the wild they band up to protect the gaggle form invasion by predators. To attempt research here will soon exhaust the funds available for the project as they will accept all the 9 dollar fruity concoctions you offer but you will never get close enough to discuss trans continental stroppiness. White wine drinkers also make a poor choice as they tend to be settled, centered types and there’s probably a protective alpha male somewhere near by. Now the whiskey drinking woman…here is a woman with so many virtues that the great redneck troubadour Toby Keith recently penned a tribute to her and all her sisters nationwide…but no point looking for her..odds are she left with me an hour ago

endless summer? I don't think so

So now we have slipped past the dog days of autumn and begin down the slippery weeks of summers end. Labor day has passed, a wonderful weekend with a poker game to kick it off and some great boat rides blasting up the Chester River under clear blue skies enjoying the company of friends and all the great things that make up this last three day weekend of summertime. In the interest of editing we will leave out the part of the story that involves whiskey, ex-wives and angry dogs (who knew dog bites hurt that much or got that infected? My leg has colors in it that were never part of any rainbow I ever saw). Only two summer weekends left (keep in mind we are on the red yes calendar around here. Final bikini contest. End of Summer). Thoughts turn back to work and markets as volume returns to the street and begins to reassess exactly where we are as far the direction of the economy and stock market.

It remains a pretty mixed picture as of this moment in time. In the beige Book released today the fed stated that there was little economic turmoil outside the real estate markets. That’s like saying outside of those very large fang marks on it, your leg is fine, Mr. Melvin. What it doesn’t say of course is that the real estate market is huge in this country and the source of most people’s personal wealth. To say nothing of all the real estate agents, mortgage brokers, and associated jobs that will be lost in a real estate slump. Of course there is still the 800-pound gorilla of all those mortgage resets coming up. Even if many of these borrowers could qualify for a loan in the new environment, they could never afford the new payments.

Sounds bad doesn’t it? Maybe we need a rate cut to soften things up a bit, make a few more bucks available to smooth things out. But Wait. There’s more. As any person who eats food, buys gas or clothes or any other type of goods can tell, prices are rising across the board. Pretty much most raw materials are up near new price highs. We are a service economy so pretty soon service providers will raise the prices they charge so they too can continue to buy food, gas and all the other fun stuff we need to get through the day. The dollar is in a free fall against just about all currencies right now (this is causing me particular distress as the price of scotch has jumped 20% in the last month). Higher raw materials and energy costs? How can we lower rates in the face of these events?

Glad I am not fed Chairman right now. If he doesn’t act, he will disappoint the financial markets and cause stock prices to fall. If he does, he runs the risk of creating a stagflation scenario. Somehow I do not see the markets embracing that very fondly either.

So what now? First admit that I probably should have bought the 1380-1400 are on cash SP 500. The few market-timing factors I like showed it as a buying point. But I felt then as I do now that the risks of such a move were not worth the potential return. My monthly price chart shows 55 months of rising prices. Do we really have a one-month sell off those retraces150 points of a 700-point move? We have risen 100% off the lows but a 20 day 10% decline is all we get. A fed injection heals an economy that had all the loose lending and bad deals that mark a frothy economy? Did think so then and don’t now. Caution makes a lot of sense to me.

I did pick up shares of mortgage concerns and reits that make commercial and business loans a few weeks ago. They had fallen, were well below book value and had real loans on real property that had not been diced and sliced into derivative securities. I felt that they could ride this wave out and corporate insiders agreed with me. Yields were north of 10% on all of them and they have risen slightly since. I think BRT, CSE, GSC, JRT and NRF are probably still buys. Can they go lower in the short term? Of course. Will they be a lot higher in three years? I think they will and I ll be collecting some fat dividends along the way. I picked up a few shares in FMAR. This fast growing bank in Baltimore trades below book as a result of their own mortgage mistakes but they have a good CEO who is buying stock. ADPT is still a net-net worthy of purchase as well. I think you also can still buy BERK, BHBC, EIHI and ESST.EDCI is too cheap not to buy given the NOLs lurking on the balance sheet waiting for someone to figure out how to turn them into real money. Those inclined to sell options should be having a blast right now as huge moves in volatility make for a lot of trading opportunities.

Let me reiterate that I am not a long-term perm bear. In fact I think the real estate issues are going to take some time to work through the economy and the stock market. When it is time to buy I think it will resemble 2001 and 02 as an incredible buying opportunity that generates a lot of long-term wealth. I look forward at that time to being a lot more aggressive, employing strategies like the value Line 1 and two under 10 dollar list, the yield and return on equity strategy. As a bonus as the lending markets churn, with wall Streets all too reliable habit of throwing out the baby with the bathwater, small local banks will get very cheap. Historically buying these little gems has been incredibly profitable when you get them below book and ender 10 times earnings. We are close here but not just yet. I am watching insider buying in this sector very carefully looking for a sign to increase my buying here. The time to jump in with both feet is coming. It is just not here yet.

So, summers gone and the flowers are indeed all dying. Or soon will be. But this gives a fall to look forward to. This just might be a good thing. Lets be honest, a few more fast boat weekends with the tic-tac kid and my knees and liver would both sue for damages. There is no better time to be a sports fan. College football, that glorious pageant of sport where one group of twistedly mutated young men takes on another and an entire states pride rests on the outcome of the contest. Already we have seen one of the greatest upsets in all of college ball history when Michigan was upset by tiny Appalachian State (search youtube for their recruiting video to understand just how small this school is. I have made better films on my phone. My phone, btw doesn’t have video. That’s how bad it is) We have determined that my Beloved Notre Dame is not very good. Okay, they are actually very bad and I am dreading the amount of crap I ll have to take from beachclub Boy Saturday when we play his Penn sate Nittany Lions. I hate my bet even with the 17 points. Pro ball starts tomorrow night with what should be a barnburner between New Orleans and The Colts. I have to say that the over at 52.5 looks like a good bet from here. The ravens look very good and there are some great story lines though out the league. As a bonus we can now watch football on ESPN and not have to listen to Michael Vick stories. There is something grand, glorious and uniquely American that encourages eating and drinking excessively while watching violent powerful men do violence to one another whilst slightly dressed beauties dance among them sinning sings of praise. Goes to Tim’s central theory of life. All things are better with partly to mostly naked women in attendance.

Baseball races are heating up. The Red Sox look to be waltzing into the playoffs, the Yankees have to play in against the mariners but this will be tough with the roughed up pitching staff. The orioles might avoid last place (although I would not bet much more than a can of warm Schlitz on this), the cubs are prime to break hearts again with their lead in danger now and the Brewers charging forward like hopped up Dartmouth freshman on a panty raid, Crossmans Indians look like a lock for the playoffs. There does exist a very strong possibilities of the only two truly evil baseball teams on the planet meeting in the world series and I will be faced with the prospect of having to spend the last week of October snarling and hurling savage curse at the screen as the red sox play the mets. Still it is a great time to be a sports fan. Hell, even NASCAR has the race for the chase coming. No Junior though so no one south of the mason Dixon line will watch it.

The pipe, the pipes are calling, from the docks and to the games.

Caution in the markets, sports on the tube. Green label Bushmills on order. No dogs in the immediate vicinity. Life is good.

I could be early. I usually am. but here are 5 names that are commercial lenders with very little exposure to the residential mess. They tend to hold their loans as opposed to trading, they have been beaten down in price worse than the orioles against texas last week and there is massive insider buying in the shares.All yield well north of 10% at current levels. While continued problems may cause some dividend cuts, I think most of them will continue their payouts at these levels.







CSA-Capital Source

Operates as a commercial lending, investment and asset management company that
focuses on the middle market. The company provides senior and subordinated
commercial loans, invests in real estate, engages in asset management and
servicing activities, and invests in residential mortgage assets.
STARS Ranking: **
2008 EPS estimate $2.37
2007 EPS estimate $1.90
2006 Reported EPS $1.65





Text JER Investors Trust ---(S&P) 08-13-07 Sym JRT
JER Investors Trust, Inc. (JERIT) operates as a specialty finance company in
the United States. It acquires and originates commercial real estate
structured finance products.



GSC Investment ---(S&P) 07-13-07 Sym GNV
Seeks to generate both current income and capital appreciation through debt
and, to a lesser extent, equity investments, by primarily investing in private
middle market companies. It has elected to be treated as a business
development company under the Investment Company Act



NORTHSTAR REALTY FINANCE ---(S&P) 08-09-07 Sym NRF
Operates as an internally-managed commercial real estate company that makes
fixed income, structured finance and net lease investments in real estate
assets. The company intends to qualify as a REIT.
STARS Ranking: ***
2008 EPS estimate $0.93
2007 EPS estimate $0.70



BRT Realty Trust SBI ---(S&P) 08-08-07 Sym BRT
BRT Realty Trust operates as a real estate investment trust in the United
States. It primarily engages in originating and holding for investment senior
and junior commercial mortgage loans secured by real property.
Announced 2Q EPS $1.88 vs. $0.48 and 6 mos. EPS $2.91 vs. $1.09. Results
exclude gains of $0.04 for 6 mos. '07, and $0.04 & $0.03 for 2Q & 6
mos. '06, from discont. opers. Results for 2Q & 6 mos. '07 include a
one-time gain of $15.3M from the sale of securities.

Living and speculation, Gonzo style

I find myself in a most unlikely place an a sunny summer Saturday. Home, sitting at the computer after returning from a bookstore run for fresh reading material and the latest financial papers. This is more like my bad weather weekends but I find myself grounded from the world of fast boating. My ribs, the victim of a disastrous albeit temporary defeat in The Great Squirrel War are cracked and I find the idea of bouncing across the bay untenable at this moment. So I here I sit with a stack of books, there are no games on at the moment of interest. We are in the sliding dead end days of summer now for orioles fans, 15 games out of the wildcard, never mind the lead and with the exception of days when Eric Bedard strides to the field in the fashion of young potential god Of the Mound playing nothing even resembling the game of baseball. Preseason football holds no interest, all my fantasy football drafts are complete so I am left with time on my hands to ruminate about the ramifications of everything and nothing. At the moment, my focus is on the book I just completed, The Gonzo Way Bu the wife of The High Priest of gonzo, Anita Thompson



I confess that in my youth I was a great admirer of Hunter Thompson, the great god of gonzo. I stumbled across the good doctor when I was 18 and working my away through life as a traveling salesman of sorts. As I found myself all too many nights in yet another decrepit single sink railroad hotel on the outskirts of some military or small college town, books, my friends from childhood remained one of my favorite refuges from the world. I had a co-worker of a similar literary bent and we read all the stuff young men should read as they attempt to explode onto the worlds stage. Thompson, Kerouac, Ginsberg and of course John d. MacDonald. We toiled long hours each day selling modestly overpriced books to the unsuspecting and unwary and spent our nights, fueled by alcohol and a few select substances of suspect legality in savage pursuit of the lessons and legends of our literary heroes. Thompson was the perfection to which all aspired, and despite failing nightly to achieve the heights the good Doctor soared to, we never stopped trying. As years went by, I read him less and less as the political gulf between out views began to widen and nagging little things like marriage and children began to cut deeply into the available time for soul searching on the highways and in the bar rooms of life. It was clear to me that the reagens policies were working, restoring not just Americas economy but her self confidence and place in the world. Thompson continue to rant and rail against the great motivator’s well as refused to admit the utter failure of the Carter years and I just sort of stopped reading him. Along with jail cells. Illegal smiles, fist fights and Carlos Castaneda, Hunter Thompson became just another memory of a marvelously misspent youth.



When he showed up as an ESPN columnist, I started reading him again. He always was a keen observer of sports and a very astute and calculating bettor, especially of football. I found that I had missed his insights into games and even of life. I had been right about reagen but I had to admit that he had been all too correct about George the Younger and his misadventures with America. We still had some significant differences on the redistribution of wealth but if he could help me find one mispriced line a week I was willing to overlook it. I was shocked and saddened when he killed himself. I felt like an icon of my youth as well as one of the great writers of our day had left the world. It was a hole I suspected we would not see filled anytime soon. It was with some interest that I ordered Anita’s book and looked forward to reading it. It is a slim volume barely more than 100 pages but it is packed with some powerful insights. Anita chose not to write a history, leaving that task to others in the days to come, but focused on some of hunters core beliefs and some of the things she learned from him along the way. I was surprised to discover that many of these have direct application to speculating and living. Although I may not approach them in the same way as Mrs. Thompson some of these questions and insights are worthy of consideration. This is not a book review so much as my own thoughts in response to the questions raised and lessons learned from this little book. They are from both chapter and section titles that struck me as powerful.



Never Stop Learning.



This is chapter one of the book, as it should be. He quest for knowledge is one of the most important facets of a well lived life. I don’t think it matters what knowledge you search for as long as you are searching. We cannot all be looking for the deep hidden meaning of the universe but we can be learning something every day that benefits our live and those around us. A new way to improve your business, a new dish to cook, a new author to read, a new way to look at markets and at stocks. It really doesn’t matter what it is as long as you are learning and continue to seek to learn. The quest for knowledge is the quest for a better life.



Bet with Your head Not With Your heart



This simple sentence can do much to improve my life. Whether it be a stock, a markets, a baseball team or a woman, a judicious use of the brain cells can help prevent a loss. I love the Orioles as you all know. Betting on them would be financial suicide. I love women as well. Bets there have tended to end just as badly when blinded by desire and infatuation it is easy to make bets that have little or no chance of success. Don’t get me wrong. I ll probably continue to do it. But at least I won’t bet on the orioles. Same with stocks and the markets. I have seen all too many people take a round trip in a stock from low to high back to low because they fell in love with it. Use your head. Stocks cannot love you back. Same with particular strategies or methodologies. Markets adapt, so must we(this also goes back to never Stop learning).



It is Wrong When It Stops Being Fun



I think this might be one of the most important sentences in the whole book. Apply it to you job, your trades, where you live, your relationships, anything and see how stunningly true this is. We too often forget that life should be fun. If life was all that serious a venture we wouldn’t be mortal. If you do not love trading you probably should stop. If you cannot find the simple happy things about your partner and you no longer share the joy of being together, you should probably split. If you aren’t happy where you live, you should probably move. Hate your Job? Get a new one. Life is brutishly short no matter how long it my seem when your team is 20 games out, football doesn’t start for three weeks and your ribs are cracked by a vengeful squirrel. It is over far, far too soon. Enjoy every moment you can and when it stops being fun, it is wrong. Time to either make it fun again or move on.



We is the Most Important Word



I am paraphrasing and twisting the book here but remember this not a review just my thoughts and observations from reading it. While at heart a randian and well aware the consequences, success and failures of my own action are my own responsibility, I still feel that we is a huge factor in a life well lived. We. Ourselves and those around us. I am blessed (really I think the only word that fits) to be a part of two unique we’s. first there are those from the speculative word. Hanks to Victors creation of the spec list , I have met many of the greatest minds of our time, not just in financial fields but certainly that is a big part of it. But also men and women who excel in a range of fields, Education, Literature, Psychology, medicine Law, real estate, engineering, biotech, an incredibly wide range of fields. I have learned much from all of them and greatly increased my store of knowledge(again, see Never stop learning)There is a subset of this group, the after dark group that band of brothers, with a few sisters in the mix who roam the land from new York to Chicago, to Lexington, Annapolis and the wilds of Iowa soon talking drinking, playing learning and having fun. It is amazing to me how quickly we became close, the result of a lot of nights we will never remember in the company of those we will never forget. There are too many stories and too many lessons learned to list here but someday I think this a book I shall write. The after dark bunch spread for the Mighty Metropolis of Deltaville to the sunny climes of green bay and I have come to love them all over the years.



There is another we as well, that group of friends here on the island of misspent toys call Kent. I fell into this group a few years back and it has become a big part of my life. It was pointed out to me not long ago by an outside observer that what we have here is pretty unique. Our group ranges from late 20s to early 60s in age with mist in the 30s and 40s. By this time most people have settled down into their lives, have a few work friends, a neighbor or two, maybe some old college buddies they talk to once in a blue. Too have this large a group of individuals who call each other friend, and treat each other that way is unique. It is a wide range of occupations and all of us are reasonably successful(you have to be to pay these bar bills). I was asked if it was a love of boating that created the group. I started to say yes as boating is a central theme in warmer months. But as I though about it, I realized that was wrong it was a love of life that the group shared. Boating sure, but football Sundays around the TV with friends, long conversation about anything and everything, fishing( although not me. Do you know early those fisher types get up? On the weekend yet), steaks on the grill on a lazy Sunday evening, beers on the dock after a long week. We celebrate each other success and share the defeats. Marriages, divorces, births deaths, wins and losses I have seen the Kent Island bunch stand by each other through it all. It is like having an extended family, one that you actually like with no long harbored resentments of who mommy like best or who always got the biggest slice of cake. I consider myself lucky to have fallen in among them.



What is the desired effect.



Thompson liked to ask himself this question before taking action. What is the desired effect of our contemplated action? Outrage,humor,inspire? Why are we doing this? To make money? To have fun? I think this one sentence can greatly improve decision making ability. At least for me.



Would You do It again?



What a great way to review our mistakes and misadventures. Whether it be a bad trade, a failed relationship or just random screw up. Given the same set of circumstances would you make the same decision. If the answer is yes, then move on. The dice, as they sometime will, moved against you. You were true to yourself and played whatever the situation to the best of your ability and knowledge. If however, the answer is no, then there is studying to be done about how we reached the wrong decisions and what changes need to be made or where our knowledge needs to be expanded.



It is The Recovery That Matters



Adversity is like sh*t. It happens. Trades will go against us. Stocks will miss earnings. The upward drift ,in life as markets, will be bumpy. Relationships will fail, love will fade, there will be accidents of floods of reality and emotions. There was no guarantee on your birth certificate and the founding father only promised you the pursuit of happiness, not eternal happiness itself. It is how you deal with it that matters. Victor has long been the shinning example of this to me, dealing with adversity that can break you but he got up plowed on and rose again. We will be knocked down form time to time. But to get up and begin to heal and recover is to m the essence of the pursuit of happiness



Truth is Easier



No need for a lot of commentary here. This is one of life’s great truths that is all to easy to forget at times. Tell the truth, face the truth and let the chips fall where they may.



It Never Got weird Enough For Me



“Reality”, Thompson said in 2002, “is still stranger that anything I could make up” How true it is. Life is weird. But I think weird might be a good thing. I look at some of the weirdness is my own life over recent years. A high school dropout ghost writing two leading investment books. Soft spoken Kentucky drawls. Rib cracking squirrels, my mtv daughter finding and becoming immersed in classic literature and she doesn’t even have to study in school, three blondes in a bar, lets just be friends, Irish bars on 51st and 2nd, the journey to potters patch, whiteouts on rush street. Life is weird. If we live it right, taking intelligent risks in markets, love and life(in my case I may have to go with two out of three. Something about legs and breasts that make me break out in stupidity) facing our fears and overcoming them, daring to be a part of we and life will be weird. And exciting. And interesting. And successful in all the ways that matter. Embrace the weird. The alternative of course is boring normal. Nine to five. Frozen dinner. Spouse who doesn’t like, much les want to sleep with you. Network television. Generic beer. Sorry. Give me the weird. Good friends, good wine, victories and defeats, spoils and scars. I hope that for me, and for you, it never gets weird enough.

lights camera action

Debt crisis. No problem. Contract stock prices by exactly 10%. Inject liquidity and lower the discount rate. Goldman creates a fund to buy the mezzanine loans off the balance sheets of major banks( I m sorry but this begs the question…exactly who is dumb enough to invest in a fund that buys loans in deals that could not get market financing the first time?), open high yield spreads to 400bps over treasuries, leave emerging mkt debt at +250. Crisis over, resume upward march f the market. Seems a little scripted to me. But, for the moment that’s where we are.

No one is talking about all the loans that will not be able to refinance in the year ahead. That’s a lot of paper and a lot of real estate someone is going to have to figure out how to move. As Wilbur Ross noted on CNN.Com:



Now that we have identified the cause of the disease, how severe and how contagious is it? The present $200 billion of delinquencies will grow to $400 billion or $500 billion next year because $570 billion more low, teaser-rate mortgages will reset to market and consume more than 50% of the borrowers' income. Therefore most of the loans will be foreclosed or restructured. Probably 1.5 million to two million families will lose their homes. Meanwhile, few lenders will put mortgages on the foreclosed houses, so the prices will plummet

No one seems bothered by the fact that junk over treasuries are still low by historical measures, or that in past credit event spreads blew out to well over 1000 bps. No one is bothered that there are still a whole lot of structured debt products out there and no one knows exactly who owns them or what they are worth. Sound the all clear and buy em seems to be the mantra.

I just cannot buy into it. A one-month credit crisis? Are you kidding me? This will continue to have an impact in the stock and real estate markets for a while yet. There are all those loan resets. It will be much harder to do LBO and PE deals with debt as loan underwriting is actually back in vogue and you will have to be able to prove that you can afford to repay the loan. This will be a drag on stock and bond prices. I don’t think the fed can bail the markets out either. After initial skepticism that the fed will lower in September but now I think they might. Certainly the futures market thinks they will. It is not however, to help the markets, but because the economy is slowing. The consumer is slowing down; unemployment will rise with newly unemployed mortgage brokers and processors padding the rolls. The Early September economic releases will bear watching closely. I think the market may be screwed here. If they don’t lower rates, there is a debt problem that the street cannot refinance. If they do, because the economy has weakened, that also bodes ill for stock prices.

I am not a long-term bear. Last Friday I had buy orders loaded up and ready to go as I expected a huge sell off before bernake and Co. stepped in. I was sure we would have a buyable sell off that would create short-term opportunities in stocks. Instead, courtesy of the fed I am still on the sideline. I won what I won here but I cannot bring myself to add at these levels. We need to be lower to reflect the worsening economic conditions and levels of risk that exist in the market and the world.

In running my screens this morning I found nothing new of any real interest. The runs are full of mortgage reits and real estate related companies. Let me stress that I truly believe that these securities will be one of the single great opportunities of a lifetime just like junk bonds in 2001. It’s just too early but companies that have quality real property, reasonably financed and managed are coming down in price. When we get another good sell off and the shares start getting puked at ridiculous prices, I will buy them. Right now, prices are just reasonable.

I remain a buyer of ADPT, ESST, EIHI,BHBC and BERK. They all fall into the too cheap not to own category.I am keeping a ver close eye on a lot of small banks as the prices move down. Small local banks with good management and an indepth knowledge of their market are one of the most fruitful investments you can make, provided you buy them right.Wen prices of the majority of them get under or close to tangible book value it tends to touch off a consolidation wave and strong stock price moves. I am looking for opportunities to sell near term puts in CHIC, BGP,UNM and DDS at good levels. I am still short USNA ( like my gun and my scotch bottle I ll give this one up when they remove my cold dead hands. I am very much of the opinion that the company has zero value), and on any more rally in prices I shall join the esteemed Mr. Crossman in being short the emerging markets buy buying puts and selling call spreads on EEM.



All clear? Not yet