New ramblings

So here we are a few week into the New Year. So far so good as the old adage puts it. I thought several times of doing a year in review piece similar to years past. Then one night as I sat sipping a delightful 18 year old bottle of the grouse it I had a (no doubt scotch induced) epiphany. Why the pure fuck would I want to that? For many 2009 was a nasty brutal year. Professionally it was a good year for me but otherwise not so much. Add a 98 loss season for the orioles and the decarnation of the last incarnation of the one true love of my life and it was not much of a year. So lets just wish 2009 a fond goodbye and fuck you then move on.

So here we sit in Mid January. The cold spell is over and the Ravens are still in the playoffs. In a few hours we will find out if the defense is up to the task of stopping Peyton from turning the game intoa track meet. Its almost impossible to confuse Manning so we are going to have to knock him around all day. Our guys got to Brady so they can get to Manning. We will know in a few hours. Whatever happens that was a pretty good late season push to get in the playoffs.

Island life is slowing down to the winter pace after the holidays. Ah, who the hell am I kidding? The only thing the season change means around here is that we do our drinking and gathering indoors instead of on the docks and boats. Instead of boat rides and outdoor bars we fill the time with poker games and bar trivia, to say nothing of football. This is a great place to live and is populated with some of the best people I have ever met in my life. It is an eclectic group with a wide range of ages and occupations, I also have to say that it is one of the few places I have ever lived where no one gives two and a half shits what you do or what you have. You either fit or you don’t. Hell, we even have Redskins fans in the group.

Looking at the economy I wish I could say something real positive and that it was going to get better soon. Sadly I just do not see it. If you live inside the beltway or between the rivers you might try to twist up some of the pure bullshit flowing out of the economists and politicians mouths into a green shoot. Out here in the real world I hear tales of layoffs, foreclosures and furloughs. Business is slow for most and I am not hearing much chatter about any up turn just yet.

The stock and bond markets are priced for stone cold perfection. With real unemployment nearing the 20% level and real estate prices still falling I do not see much on the level of perfect going on. I know cost cutting is holding margins up for many companies but it is not really possible to shrink your way into growth. Sales for many key industries are still dropping and my ever reliable mall Spies tell me not much new is changing with the advent of a new year. Add in carbon taxes and health care surcharges and the profit picture gets even dimmer in my opinion.

I am quite confident in the ability of those shitheads on both sides of aisle in the mental cesspool of the Potomac to blow up the markets. None of these goddamn idiots should be entrusted with a fucking popsicle stand much less a nation. Our children grandchildren will be paying for this mess. We can’t have the type of bullshit bailouts and handouts we have been doing. If you and I fuck up and make bad decisions and stupid bets we go broke. The sheriff takes our shit and they auction it to pay what we owe. When Wall Street and Congress do it we just print more and send them away with a pat on the ass and a promise to do better.


We have a government that starts wars and doesn’t finish them. What a dishonor to the men and women who serve to send them in harms way with ridiculous restrictions. Further how we can continually do it with such blatant disregard for the constitution. This nation has not declared war since December 1941 yet every day we have casualties from armed conflict. We send them out with ridiculous rules of engagement. Collateral casualties cannot be a consideration if we are going to fight a war. Train them, arm the, then turn the m loose to fucking WIN the damn thing. Where the hell is Georgie Patton when you need him?


An economy in disarray and a unstable geopolitical situation is not perfection. There is just so much that can go wrong on so many levels and none of this is reflected in the markets. We have seen a massive forced asset allocation trade put on by the government. Keeping rates low and flooding the economy with cash has literally forced money into stocks bonds and commodities. This will end badly. It has to. There is not some super fucking genius kept in a closet in DC that knows how to unwind this trade. The same dipshits that created the mess will be the ones at the helm. I am sure they will drive the ship right up on the goddamned rocks and am investing in anticipation of this. I am short bonds again this year and intend to remain so throughout 2010.


Thank God for cheap stocks. I don’t think I ever got over 40% invested last year and in spite of that had one of my best years ever in absolute percentage terms. I enter the year with positions in several of my near or below cash book value beauties and am quite content to limit my activities to these stocks. I also just bought the first bank stock I have owned in several years, adding shares of a local bank to my holdings. I just stuck my toe in the water picking up a few shares of Shore Bancshares but I expect to add to the position throughout the year. The local bank trades below book value and has a solid loan portfolio and balance sheet.

This is the type of trade I am hoping begins to develop in earnest in the first half of 2010. As commercial and real estate woes continue to fall I am looking for the market to wake up to the problems facing the small banks. When it starts the stock market, being the bastion of irrational insanity that it is ,the baby will go out with the bathwater. This type of activity created a situation back in the early 1990s that allowed many [people to literally get rich over the next decade. When the god get sold with the bad I am looking to buy up a portfolio of small banks below tangible book value that have low loan losses and adequate reserves. As real estate improves-and it will someday- we will start to see a wave of mergers and acquisitions in the banking community. These transactions will occur at multiples of book, not at a discount. Those solid bank stock bought in this next sell off will show tremendous gains for those bold enough to step up.


Sam Zell, the grave dancer of the real estate industry, recently said that hotels would be the first commercial real estate he will start buying in 2010. I think he is right and am watching the hotel REITs carefully. I am spending time digging though the numbers at looking at every piece of the capitalization structure to find opportunities in the common and preferred equity as well as debt securities of these companies. It is still early on the CRE game but I want to have a buy list and a deep understanding of the industry when the time to buy arrives. It may be closer than we all think for this segment of the market.


Back here in the real world life may not be perfect but its still so damn good I cannot stand it at times. Both kids are living with me now and although I should be encouraging them to move out and on I am selfish. I like having the little shits around. They are both smart hard working people with a great outlook on life and I like having them around. It is not uncommon for the two of them to be my first choice for dining and drinking companions. For some strange ass reason they like hanging around with my friends and me and I love every damn minute of it.

As always I am blessed with that wonderful excess of friends that has made life so interesting and just flat out fucking fun at times. Things shift around as people marry, get married, move in a different direction with their lives but at the core both on the island and in the after dark spec group a core remains. The cheesehead may be in Wisconsin freezing his ass off but we still drunk dial from time to time and catch up on the latest adventure. Tic-Tac may have found a new career as a nanny but we still find time to meet for drinks and an episode or two of pure stupidity. The Porsche driver has become a fast friend and is just hysterical to be around. He is one of the very few people that has as fucked up a personal life as I do. Add a sense of humor and sense of adventure and he becomes a dangerous companion of the finest kind. The tire guy still plays keno as a battle to the death and bleeds purple and black as always. His wife just opened a new hair salon so I may actually have to start getting a haircut on a regular basis. The curmudgeon is splitting time between Chicago, Tahoe and the state of contusion but we still talk markets, sports and life several times a week. A good friend os one who bails you at 2 am. A great friend is one sitting in the cell next year saying, “Holy shit that was fun.” I am blessed with many of both.


So what does the year ahead hold? Hell if I know. I know there will be laughter and there will probably be a tear or two along the way. If you live full out and head on as I try to do it is pretty much inevitable. I have always held that he who dies with the most scars, in or outside, wins. Life is a contact sport nad I will play until the game ends. I win some I lose some and so far I have been able to win the important ones. I love what I do, I have incredible children who I count among my best friends, and friends in evry walk and phase of life. Doesn’t sound too bad to me.

Yeah okay so finding someone to share I with is not a game we put into the winners category just yet. Doesn’t mean I will quit playing. Yeah I have take a few good sharp shots over the years of the relationship variety but there have been more than enough moments of great romance and deep passion to make any tears or heartbreaks worth the price paid. Either that or I am just too stupid to quit. Whatever the reason the search continues. Hopefully this is my year. Probably won’t be because apparently I am a difficult man! But as with Mr. Edison and the light bulb I can fail in my endeavors to find a permanent incarnation of the one true love of my life many times and get right just once to win.

So let life roll on. Pour the wine, deal the cards, start the engines. To the best of my knowledge we get one shot at this thing sol endeavor to make it a good one. There are books to read, music to hear and adventures to be had.It is not always going to be perfect, nor it will always be fun. But there will be many moments that are both.I doubt that any of us will lie on our deathbed recalling the times when we struggled to pay the bills or drowned a broken relationship in cheap gin and tears. We will instead be recalling those wild nights with great friends or as I once heard it put nights we will never remember with friends we will never forget. We will think of the first cry of a child. We will recall a first kiss on a frozen winter’s night or perhaps dancing into the early hours on a dock with a new love. Perhaps it will be a little boy at his first big league game or a cherished friends wedding. It will be those memories we embrace at the end and they will bring a smile to our weary faces. It is those memories that make life worth living. It’s a new year. lets go make some.

Thanksgiving 2009

It has been a tough year all the way around. The economy has been difficult for most of us. The markets have been confusing at best and dangerous at worst. The Orioles suck and the Ravens are going to need a miracle to make the playoffs. My personal life remains God’s personal comedy channel or at least a warning to others. In spite of that at this time of year it is appropriate to count my blessings and they are many.

Lets start with the fact that I am basically living my dream. I work from home, write every day and invest in stocks and bonds for myself and friends. It does not get any better than this. I moved into a larger nicer place and both kids are here with me now. While that is at times a mixed blessing I truthfully like it MOST of the time. I have dodged the worst of the markets and the economy and life is actually pretty damn good for me.

Yes times are tough right now for many in this country. Truth be told they may well get far worse before they get better. That cheerful breed of cutthroats, thugs thieves and outright fucking idiots that ascended to power are clueless. At times it seems like they are trying to screw up the world. It is amazing to me that the focus on politics and appeasing vote and money blocks allows them to totally ignore the long term implications of what they are doing. If they are considering that aspect of their actions than they are criminals and traitors and should be drug by their carefully coiffed hairdo to the gallows and swiftly and brutally executed. I find myself hoping they are just the vote whores and power sniffers I think they are. The alternative is ugly.

But the truth is that this is the US. I cannot believe that we have become so lethargic and sheep like that we will not see through this at some point. I already see the tea parties and feel the rage of many people in this country. People are confused and scared and they are beginning to realize what a buffoon they elected to lead us. This is change you can believe in all right just not for the better. The 1970s decade of clueless leadership and idiotic fiscal policies gave rise to Ronald Reagan ad 20 year boom and I think it will happen again. If it does not then it is our own damn fault for allowing it to happen.

I think we will again become an America where innovation and industry will be rewarded. Hopefully we get back to a point where a house is a home and not a speculation. Whats wrong with saving your money and making a downpayment and having equity in your home. The American Dream is the freedom to live the life you want not owning a fucking ATM machine with indoor plumbing. We need to change the tax code to encourage savings and investment once again, instead of encouraging debt and insatiable spending.

I do not who John Galt is but I think he is out there. The outcome of the incredible fucking mess we are in and are still facing is hopefully a return to a world where small business thrives and grows. If we do realize our mistakes of the past decade and get our country back on track then its worth it. If we do not take the country that way then we deserve whatever we get from the pocket picking assholes on either side of the aisle.

Those who are aware of my market and economic positions wil be surprised to hear me describe myself as an optimist. True I am bearish on the intermediate direction of financial things but on life itself I remain an absolute cock eyed fucking optimist. There is simply too much that is good and true and right about this life not to be. If life is so awful how can we have summer nights and winter mornings? Look at a smiling child and tell me again how horrid life is. Watch an elderly couple strolling hand in hand down the avenue oblivious of the traffic and crowds swirling around me and tell me that this journey is not worth it. It is.

There is so much to be grateful even in a tough year. There are books of course. Books have made my life what it is so far. They are my biggest source of education but of entertainment. Television is for sport and news. I do not see how people can sit in front of the box having someone else life fed to them in thirty minutes slices of idiocy when so much great literature and incredible stories are at hand. Hell, even if you are broke a library card is free. The lessons of the universe and of history are in their pages, as are the stories and epics of the ages. How someone can note read is just a mystery to me. Maybe not a Parker or Christie quality mystery but a mystery none the less.

There is music. Here’s an idea. Instead of taking anti fucking depressants fill your life with Handel, Mozart and Beethoven. Throw out the goddamn pills and turn on Miles and Coltrane to out out the fires raging in your head. Let Oscar Peterson take you off to dreamland and maybe a little rock and roll to get the blood flowing in the morning. Let me see you be a grouch ass in the morning with John Hiaat slamming through slow turning . Can’t be done. Music is the heart of life and the soul of creation in my opinion.

The next area is one I approach warily. There are women. While it is true that I am coming off a breakup of breath taking proportions even by my somewhat spectacular standards I will always be grateful for the women that I have been fortunate enough to have in my life. Yes, they have made me crazy at times and the source of more than one tear (if I cried of course.Everyone knows I am a tough guy and tough guys do not cry). But there have been so many spectacular moments that any pain has been worth the passion and even love. A first kiss, a lovers touch, the moment you know you are falling in love, these and so many others are the reason I will never give up on women. As with Edison and the light bulb I am aware that I can fail many times with explosions and even burns along the ay but I only have to get it right once for the light to work. I remain hopeful that at some point it does and I can be half of that couple walking down the avenue hand in hand oblivious to the crowds and the traffic swirling around them.

To not be grateful for my friends would be to mock at the face of God. I have been blessed with friends that are in my opinion the single greatest group of people I have known. Here on the island people like The Tire guy and his bride The Salon Chick, Tic tac and The Peruvian princess, Crackbaby an his girl the wine pusher are the glue of life. People like GQ and Lamie, The Fishermans Guy and the shacked up freeloader along with baldy and so many others are the ones I laugh with, play with and make life so much more enjoyable. When I think I have set a new standard for a whacked out personal life I need merely hang out with the Porsche driver for a bit and my troubles are greatly reduced in scope!We share the laughs, we share the tears and we love our lives.

Then there are the Spec Friends accumulated over the years. How much have I learned from The irascible curmudgeonly options trader and the rest of the disreputable Chicago crowd over the years? How many late nights and last calls have we all shared over the years? Too much and too many to ever properly count. There are the late night calls with the gin swilling Cheesehead who has become one of my favorite people on the planet over the years. The voodoo prof, the VT fan, the Iranian, the Kentucky colonel,all of these and more have added so much to my life over the years that I could never repay it . My fondest hope is that I have added some measure to theirs.

So yeah, it has been a tough year. But we have and will survive; Life will swirl around us with all the attendant highs and lows. There will be laughs and music to soothe out journey and enhance our path along the way. There will be sunsets of unspeakable beauty and storm of unfathomable strength and we shall pass through them all. There is much to love about life and so much to be thankful for even when times are tough.

So raise a glass my friends in toast to all we have to be grateful and all that makes life so wonderful. Happy Thanksgiving!

Life Rolls On

So the time is upon us and the end is nigh. As we all do pass to where we do not know and dare not ask, the regular season is coming to its end. The orioles have been god awful bad this season and again we end on a weak note. There are signs of promise but we need one arm and two bats to actually compete I shall watch the off season closely. Now I turn my eyes north with the fond hope the Yankees kick the shit out of Boston and take it all. Who else would I pull for? The Phillies? LA? Not much chance of that. Give me the legacy of Ruth Gehrig mantle and DiMaggio as we move to the playoffs.

We have play off baseball and football this month. As a sports fan it is hard not to love October. The Ravens are good, Navy is average and Maryland sucks but we shall enjoy it all. Flacco looks like Unitas out there and has the same proud humility. It will be fun watching the season. I have MD season tickets but have only watched one quarter. They are truly terrible. Love the fridge but he may have to go. Navy took one to much if a schedule this year but I think we get six wins and beat Army so that is a good year.

The market? Are you fucking kidding me? I have been wrong since March but right since 2007. The real estate and employment situation are still horrible and they are the keys to everything. How can you be bullish in an economy that is 70% consumer driven and the real unemployment rate approaches 20%? Achieving earnings targets by firing people is not a healthy solution. I catch a lot of shit for being bearish but fuck em. I am up over 60% with my too cheap not to own stocks and I never got over 40% invested. The bulls can buy the ticket and take the ride but do not bitch to me or ask for a loan when it all goes to shit. You have to be a fucking idiot to believe we are okay right not. We are not.

Stick with the cheap shit. You wont lose money with stuff like FLY,CRE and SGI. Cash on the books is comfortable. You can sleep at night and not lose money. Given Marty Whitman’s approach to distressed debt and track record you have t be an idiot not to put money in his new credit fund. But buy the market? Why not just hit yourself in the crotch with a hammer? Might hurt less in the long run.

Enough of those topics. Life rolls on and it is good. The poets rhyme and the singers sing. The books keep being written and the sun sets with a colorful display of life and its possibilities every night. There are smiles and the greetings of friends. Each day there is a daughters laugh and a sons smile to reinforce the feeling of a job done well and right. I do not claim to be a great parent bit I did not fuck up too badly as the lives and determination of those two attest. Soon they won’t need me any longer. Although that has been the goal I may still shed an imaginary tear or two when that day arrives.

I am living a dream I never thought I would have, I write. I trade and life is good. I have friends that most people never will. I have lived my dream the past two years. If it ends tomorrow at least I had it for awhile. I do not think it will as it turns out I am pretty good at this. I will ride it as far as it goes and try to expand it further. We have on going talks about a fund or newsletter or a combination therein, by years end I will figure it out.

So on it goes. Life is incredible right now. There is a woman who makes me smile every time I think about her. She is very private so I cannot talk about her much. Suffice it to say that the last time I was this happy and thrilled with someone gray hair was nowhere near the issue it is now. No names or details , just smiles.
Life goes on. Sometimes it sucks, sometimes it dances. Markets go up, markets go down. The sun rises (so I am told I like sleep too much to ever see it) and it sets. Even when it hurts life it is glorious.

In honor of My sons 21st birthday, a guide to imbibing like a gentleman

1. If heading out for an evening of imbibing, have cab far in cash in your pocket even if using a credit or debit card for the tab.
2. Learn your bartender’s name. No one likes to be called “hey you.”
3. Unless they piss in your drink, tip at least 20%
4. Run a tab rather than pay as you go so they know you tipped fairly, especially if you intend to be a regular.
5. If you can afford it, a little extra tip at the holidays marks you as one of the good guys and will pay off in spades over the years
6. Bartending can be a tough job. They put up with enough drunken assholes. Do not be one.
7. Fighting in bars is stupid beyond belief. Do not do it for any reason.
8. Most bar fights are over women. If someone hits on your date and she ignores it, you do the same. She is with you and he has to live with the burden of being a dick.
9. If she does respond, congratulate him on his skill in identifying a weak willed shameless slut. Tell HER to pay her own god damned bar tab.
10. A wedding ring on a woman not just no. It is not no fucking was not even if she offers blatantly. It will happen at least once in your drinking career and NOTHING good will come from it.
11. Drinking shots until you puke/pass out/become overtly obnoxious does not make you cool. It makes you one more drunken ass hole that only other drunken assholes will want to be around
12. Drunken assholes make poor friends
13. If you have a friend who likes to get into fights. Leave him home. His reputation will hurt yours.
14. If someone asks for your keys, surrender them. If another drunk thinks you are too drunk to drive, you are. Use the cab fare in your pocket.
15. If for some unfortunate or idiotic reason you are asked to leave an establishment, just leave. You are not going to talk your way back in.
16. Go back in the morning and apologize to the owner/ manager if this happens, especially if you are a regular.
17. If you could not dance or sing when you came in, you cannot dance or song later either.
18. Before leaving with a cougar or chubby always run the idea by your friends. You need a two thirds majority before proceeding. Alcohol often distorts perception.
19. Do not get suckered into buying drinks for groups of girls. Cutting one out of the flock is difficult at best and those $8 cosmos add up quick.
20. There is a difference between funny and obnoxious. Learn the difference. It may save you from a horrendous ass beating one night.
21. Never clock block.
22. If someone does it to you, do not drink with them anymore. They will do it again.
23. Never fruit whiskey. It is inelegant and unmanly.
24. Sport fucking women you meet in bars without a condom is like paying Russian roulette with 5 bullets in the gun. I mean really, do you think you are the only one she has ever done this with? Wrap to ride.
25. If someone you do not know wants to play pool for money, you are probably going to lose.
26. Should you bet on anything, pay your losses immediately.
27. Never give someone a second chance if they do not do the same.
28. There is reason the state runs Keno in bars. That reason is not to give your drunk ass money to pay the tab.
29. If you offer to buy a girl a drink and she switches from draft beer to some shit with an umbrella in it, walk away after paying. You cannot afford the kind of leeching this chick will do to you.
30. If a friend buys a round, it is incumbent upon you to return the favor.
31. Should a friend not reciprocate more than once, quit buying him drinks. Introduce him to the girl in #29
32. If you no longer recognize the language you are speaking, it is time to call that cab.
33. Wearing Ravens gear into a bar in Pittsburgh is probably not conducive to your health and well being.
34. If you and your buddies insist on referring to women as cunts, ho’s or bitches, rest assured that the one woman you set your sights on will overhear you. Dead Man Walking.
35. Be polite to friend’s wives, girlfriends and dates even if you think they are unattractive and bitchy.
36. Odds are the bar stool is not wobbly. You are drunk. Think cab.
37. If drinking at a Dock bar determine what number of drinks requires you to stay away from the edge.
38. If you bump into someone, apologize. If you spill their drink, buy them another one.
39. If you spill your own more than once, it is time to go.
40. Unless you can actually sing (see #17) or are Tom Cruise singing karaoke love songs to random hot chicks is not going to work.
41. Talking on 3rd down or a 3 and 2 count in the ninth inning is just fucking rude.
42. Before using a pick up line, ask your sister how she would respond to it.
43. By the time a woman is 25, chances are she really has heard them all.
44. It is true; some women are hopelessly attracted to assholes.
45. Those women are not worth the high price of becoming an asshole no matter how hot they are.
46. Men will swarm around the tens. Somewhere in that bar is an 8 with a better personality who is would love some attention.
47. Do not bet basketball with Travis Coleman no matter what odds he gives you. Little fucker is lucky although he does owe me $20 from the Boston game.
48. More than one martini will probably have an unfortunate ending.
49. The barmaid is probably not going to fall in love with you.
50. Above all do not be THAT guy. If more than one person mutters “oh shit” or the bartender frowns when you walk in, you are on the way to being THAT guy and need to adjust accordingly

Market Thoughts 3-14

Now that last nights ruminating and bloviating is out of my system (temporarily I assure you) let’s turn our attention and focus to more important matters. We finally got a rally in the stock market this week with 4 actual honest to god up days in a row. Hats off to Doug Kass for a brilliant bottom call. Frankly I am amazed it took so long to develop. Every indicator I have ever used was oversold, in most cases ridiculously so. I starting saying a few weeks ago we were probably due for a good little rally in the market. Day after day I watched the market fail to get a bid and just drop lower. There was a global buyers strike in equities. Now, we finally have a little bounce here, up about 10% in just the last four days. Let the rejoicing begin, the Bear is dead!

Umm.not so fast. In my mind to believe the stock market has pout in a bottom you have to believe that two things tha just do not hold up to examination. First, you have to believe that real estate has stopped going down. Plunging real estate prices and soaring foreclosure rates are the major problem in the economy. According to RealtyTrac foreclosures jumped 30% last month on a year over year basi., More than 10% of homes with a mortgage are at least one payment behind. A little basic supply and demand math tells you that all these homes being dumped on the market are going to push prices lower still in the months ahead. We still have a wave of ALT-A and Option Arm loans to reset this year. A very high percentage of these 2006-2007 loans are going to default. The buyers could not afford the reset payment rate if their life depended on it. Design all the government mortgage bail out plans you want. Short of giving these folks the house or charging 0 %interest for the life of the loan, as well extending the loan to 50 years in term, they are going to default.
Much was made of the fact that housing inventories declined a little in January and February. Except, not really. There is an estimated 700,000 homes in some stage of the foreclosure process, including other real estate owned on bank balance sheets that are not officially listed for sale yet. ZI have seen estimates as high as 3 million total foreclosures this year. That would be about a 60% increase in inventory levels if it comes to pass. The only buying we see in housing is on the courthouse steps these days. So far, there is not enough vulture activity to soak up the supply and allow prices to stabilize.

The second belief you must hold if you think the rally is an actual bottom is that earnings will get better in the second quarter. To those of you who hold such a belief I shall simply ask, “ Are you high?” Where will such earnings growth come form. Retail? Not a chance. Any sales truncations consummated these days are done to levels designed to clear inventories with little or no margin. Financials? Didn’t you just love the Citigroup memo the other day that they were profitable on an operating basis nit including speciall items. Special items like credit losses and asset write-down’s. I have to check this but I am sure that Citi was profitable without considering the gargantuan losses in every quarter since the crisis began. It’s the losses that have sucked up the $100 billion or so of private and public capital the bank has used to keep the doors open. Financials still have a lot of real estate related problems ahead of them in my opinion. Energy? Sure with falling demand and lower commodity prices their earnings should just explode this quarter. Tech? Last time I looked technology companies sold products and services to other companies and consumers, both of whom are scared to death, over levered and not spending money. We justput in the first quarterly loss ever for the companies that make up the S&P 500 and I just do not think the second quarter will be a hell of a lot better. Everyone thought I was drunk or insane when I said last year we would put a 6 handle on the S%P 500. I was right. I think I am right this time as well. We have not seen a real bottom in this market.

I would love to be proven wrong about this because I am tired of wrestling with the daily dichotomy of a poor stock market and the unbelievably cheap asset values I am seeing on a daily basis. My good friend Corban Bates, a budding value investor and recent grad of Hudson High, sent me a spreadsheet last with week with over 100 companies that trade for less then net current asset value. The last time we were anywhere close to that was the net cash bargains created in the internet blow up and the majority of those paid off handsomely over the next couple of years. You can buy stocks like ADPT, TECD, and ESIO for less than the value of the company’s liquid assets. You can literally build a portfolio of 40-50 of these that have a good credit scores, viable businesses and excellent recovery prospects. That’s enough to make me salivate at the possibilities for gains over the next several years.

DIS trade for about two thirds of my appraisal value. That is provided we give no value at all to the film library or character rights and price the parks as raw land and put a 5 multiple on after tax earnings DELL trade for less than two cash. HTH is a pile of cash in the hands of a proven investor in distressed banks and other financials. As a bonus the company landed aback door bank charter and will be able to bid on distressed assets and institutions. Southwest Airlines is stupid cheap, trading below tangible book value. Oil service companies like RDC and PTEN trade below net asset value at these levels. I like the idea of buying the Forest City senior debentures at a 30% YTM and what looks to be more than adequate asset coverage. Whitman has been a buyer and although struggled with everyone else last year, he is one of the best credit analysts and distressed guys around. Assets are cheap and normally I would be looking to go all in here.

So far I have resisted the urge. It’s worked for me as week after week the market has moved lower. We have seen a few little rallies but they sputter and fade. I am trying to play good defense whole accumulating cheap assets. It would be hard to play the traditional value game of buy and hold here as assets that look cheap drop another 505 or so, No mater how confident you are of your analytical ability that type of loss generates acidic vomitosis and takes a long for recovery to occur. Instead, I have held inverse ETFS to offset my long exposure. I have sold calls on rallies. The worst that happens is that the stock gets called away and I have to buy it back. In my former life as retail broker high commissions made this unpractical. Today, paying less per trade than the cost of an all night drink cup on ladies night in a dive bar, it’s not an issue. In the case of Southwest Airlines I bought 2001 $5 calls for $2 to create my position. Southwest, the best run airline in the country over 7 in two years? Hell, book value is almost seven. I ll take the bet every day.
For the most part I am avoiding the financials. I noted the other day that the giant distressed firm Oaktree Capital has almost no exposure to the most distressed industry on the planet. I agree with the choice. The major banks are just highly toxic piles of shit. Book values are fiction. Some of the community banks like SVBI and ANNB are stupid cheap but the on going real estate problems are going to plague them for a while yet. We have no idea what rules, regulations and restriction the banks will have to operate under going forward. Until we do, it is hard to make an educated investment in bank stocks. I love community Banks and traded them for years. I paid for one marriage and two divorces because of community bank stocks. I look forward to doing so again but not until we see the new rule book. Financials will not lead the market to a new bull. There are so many other bargains it is easy to ignore them and stay out of the minefield they created for themselves.

The values are there and I am confident that over a span of years I will get paid. I am aware however that there will be more downward pressure on prices and it will be some time yet before an economic and market recovery is affected. We have a ways to go as a nation. Before the bubble consumer debt was less than 70% of GDP according to reports I have seen. It is almost a 100% today. When we were great and growing a s a country we saved for what we bought. We used debt for large purchases and paid it off as quickly as we could. Wed id not take a credit card and spend our home equity on a trip to Barbados or a new pair of Jimmy Woos. We put money down on our homes, qualified for a mortgage and lived in the damn things. To really put things back on track we have to work our way back to that again. It takes time.

I ll buy a little here and there as things become too cheap not to own. But I m going to hedge my bets and use options as much as possible to create and protect positions. In my mind it is foolish for an investor not to do so. I have no interest in calling a bottom or executing short term directional trade right now. I have seen two many guys and girls carried out on their shield in the last two years to even think the reward could be worth the risks. Protect capital, find deep undervaluations and be damned careful.

Next time out I will cover really important shit like baseball and why the Orioles have a great team of position players but the usual collection of rag arms and no names on the hill will make it difficult to compete again this year. Maybe talk about why a happy many could make the Dodgers the best of the NL and Teixeira taking the Yankees back to the playoffs. Goes without saying that we will examine why the god damn scum sucking rat bastard Red Sox are the very definition of all that is evil and foul in the world today

Books, Broads and Booze

There are times when one must sit around of a Friday eve and watch basketball, sip whiskey and contemplate, if not ruminate about the world and ones role within it. Such a night would seem to be upon us. Translated this means that there is not much going on around the island tonight and the ACC tournament is on. As I begin my latest epistle, Maryland is leading Wake Forest in the second half, my glass is newly filled and all would seem right in the universe for the moment. Of course, I drink faster and the Terps have blown bigger leads so we shall see how long the world stays so happy a place.

As they do so often on quiet nights my thoughts turn to the formative forces and times of my life. By any counts it has thus far been an interesting journey with twist and turns worthy of a novel, provided Hunter Thompson, SE Hinton and F. Scott Fitzgerald had collaborated on such an adventure. I would love to include Hemingway but I haven’t boxed in over 35 years and hunting and such bores me shitless. The 16 year old high school drop out I once was had no idea that life would turn out the way it has. It’s been fun, it’s been educational and quite a ride. Like all thrill rides it has had some bumps and scary times. (Although I am blessed with that special stupidity that is rarely afraid. More like curious as to just what the fuck else is going to go wrong). Somehow I have managed to have a career in an industry no one in my neighborhood had any idea existed. Hell, working on the line at GM or Sparrows Point, maybe a nice government job was the height of our ambitions. Somehow I got form there to hear and one has to wonder what the chief forces have been that drive such a life. The answer of course lies in the 3B’s of my existence. Books, Broads (yeah, yeah I know politically incorrect and all that shit but female acquaintances and companions doesn’t have the same zing does it?) and booze.

Books have been the chief driver of my intellect and what paltry accomplishments I have achieved. I cannot claim that I did anything to spur my love of reading. I was just born this way. My mother encouraged it and each week through my youth we made the trek to the Drug Fair parking lot to check out books form the bookmobile service provided by the public library. I loved that damn thing. Just a big old bus full of books free for the taking. Mom never told us what we could or could not read. Whatever struck us was fair game I could check out some Alistair McLean adventure novels , Churchill’s histories or even some racy Harold Robbins novels. I read everything and anything. I almost looked forward to being grounded when I was a teen. In the summer I would climb a tree in the yard and read for hours, hidden from the world. I was a teenager when I read Solzhenitsyn. I read damn near everything he ever wrote the summer between 7th and 8th grade. I still remember poor old Mr. Taylor calling me a liar when we did the first day of school what did we read over the summer role call. There I stood in cuffed jeans, greasy hair and Chuck Taylors talking about the Gulag Archipelago. The class ended, as did a lot the rest of the year with the hood and the teacher arguing about books while the rest of the class fucked off.

Books have been a driving force in my life. Both parents were brilliant people who were big readers. I was literally born a speed reader. To this day I read just about a book a day. I read everywhere. I have read in schools, churches and jails. I read on the beach, on planes, wherever I find myself. My apartment is a literally cluttered with books most of the time. As my son says “ya know Dad, I feel like I live in the worlds messiest library.” Without them I would probably still be that high school dropout.

Who influences me the most? I think they all did. Shakespeare who opened my eyes to the romance and excitement of words and the world they described. Hunter Thompson ,who taught me to embrace the weirdness of it all. Ayn Rand is how I finally figured out that I was responsible for my own actions. She has some fucked up ideas about relationships and has the compassion of a damn stone but she does exude a passion for life and achievement.

COMMERCIAL BREAK” Maryland did it. We beat Wake and go to the semi’s. The NCAA doesn’t put us in the dance now they should be horsewhipped like the brainless, soulless dim witted fucktards they are. We should play Duke next and I cannot with for another shot as those bastards.Books eventually set my career. As a young salesman I read all the Ziglar and Hopkins I could find. I read the Norman Vincent Peales and Napoleon Hills to discover the power of the mind. Back in the days of my door to door sales career these helped keep me focused on the next door and forget the last three slammed in my face.

A lot of value investors tell me that Ben Graham’s writings were their epiphany. For me it was when my mentor to be (reluctantly I promise you. I was a pain in the ass) gave me a copy of Marty Whitman’s Aggressive Conservative Investor. The concept of asset based investing just made an enormous amount of sense to me. From there I moved on to Graham and Ed Altman and learned equity and credit analysis. I loved Victor Neiderhoffers Education of a Speculator. His unusual and unique way of thinking about markets helped me avoid getting stuck in my ways and approach. My eventual friendship with the author after email exchanges was one of the most positive influences in my life and my career.

The lessons of history are there for the taking. Jefferson to Churchill. Thomas Paine to Ronald Reagan. He stories of the patriots, pioneers and ner do wells that birth a nation. The seriously demented authors of Mein Kampf and the Communist Manifesto who sought to destroy a world. All available for the taking merely by opening a book. Hell, you can damn near learn history by reading historical novels. WEB griffin for one has made the story of the US Military for 1940 through current time’s fun to read. Bernard Cornwells Sharpe novels make European history interesting. Patrick O’Briens Jack Aubrey books bring the life of the British navy alive and understandable.

Then there are the just for fun writers that I read just to escape. Robert parker (although truthfully one could learn to cook and fight reading the Spencer series). Randy Wayne Whites Doc Ford series has become a favorite. Travis McGee remains my hero and role model. If Christopher Moore is not the funniest son of a bitch whoever set paper to pen, he is a candidate. How can you not love a drunken lecher like Charles Bukowski? Dorothy Parker could have easily been the great love of mu life if not for that multi decade difference in birth dates. The poems of Cumming with their aggressive sensuality, Yeats with his lyrical quest for love and freedom, Baudelaire’s Be Drunk, all of these delight the mind and inflame the inner mind.
Books taught me romance. They taught me history, math, passion, and an appreciation of life.They have entertained me. My career path was shaped by them. They are easily the most dominant of the B’s.

Which of course brings us to broads. Women, the fairer sex, the delight of my soul and bane of my existence. Nothing else in life can take you as high or lay you as low as a woman. From the majesty of a first kiss to the soul crushing wine drenched break up that leaves you a blithering idiot for days on end, they are the best and worst of life. It has been my experience that it is far more the former than the latter. I have finds that have been crushed enough times in the dance of romance that they give up and avoid anything that might look like a relationship. Fuck that. There is always a chance that I find the Bacall to my Bogart and that will always be worth the risk of heartbreak (although I could do with out the lawyers and the judges when it turns out to be Sinatra and Gardner instead).

I will always be an Irish romantic. To give up on romance and the mere possibility of finding that perfect partner, she with whom I match on all levels, a partner and lover, would seem to me to take much of the meaning out of life. I confess that at 47 at times the search is a pain in the ass and I have come to loath the early stages of the dating process but sometime there is a click for however ling that continues to offer a glimpse of possibilities. If I never find it, at least I ll have a lot of fun, nights of dancing at the dock bar to blues under the stars, dinners with eyes sparkling in the candlelight,, that first anxious clumsy fingering enrobing, the comfortable sensuality of a familiar lover and all the other moments that are forever frozen in my memory.

Like everyone else my age and still single, there have been successes that did not last as well as spectacular fuckups along the way. Some were my fault. Some were not. From each of them as time passes and the scars fade I find that there are memories that I would trade for the pain of the aftermath. Quit? Not going to happen. Ill take the scars if I can have those moments that do work. A rainy Sunday morning with the coffee and New York Times, Nat King Cole on the stereo playing footsie at the breakfast table. Lying on the beach together barely touching but deeply aware of the touch. A long conversation about hopes dreams and desires over a bottle of three of wine. Goodnight kisses and passionate awakenings. Finishing each others sentences, laughing at private jokes, slow dancing with no music playing, love letters and late night phone calls. Are you telling me the me risk of getting hurt outweigh these, or the possibility they last the proverbial forever? What a chicken shit way to live.

Bringing us of course to booze. Like so many other Irishman before me I am an unabashed drinker. I really don’t give a shit what anyone thinks about it. I laugh out loud at people who tell me that drinking alone is not good for me. Shit I like MY own company. A book with a glass of wine and I m a happy fucking camper. Put a baseball game on turned down low at the same time and that about as happy as I can be with my clothes on. Bring me a bunch of friends and a long boozy dinner at the bar with lots of laughter and I consider that a great evening. Long conversations with old friends over a cigar and a good scotch are among my favorite things. Cruising down the bay with a frosty gin and tonic as the sunset paints the sky is a joyous occasion. I have toasted my weddings with champagne and endured divorce with Rumpleminz( okay so maybe that wasn’t such a good idea). I made the final decision to switch career paths last year over a glass of Famous Grouse. I have fallen in both love and lust over a bottle of wine. I have lifted a glass in a final toast after too many wakes. I miss the days when booze and cigarettes were an accepted part of life I don’t miss work because of the prior night with the exception of March 18th and the day after a jimmy Buffet concert. . I tell every first date I smoke and I drink and I have no attention of stopping. I don’t drink until I can’t work, I have never needed a drink but I do enjoy one. In the poetic words of my Celtic forefathers, fuck you I drink.

The three B’s. Now if I could just find a smart romantic sensuous woman who likes cocktail and books, life would be complete. Until then, I ll have a drink and finish my book.

Thoughts on snow

from the archives but captures my thougts on the white stuff


About 11 I decided that a nightcap was the just the thing and off to bed. Pouring a tumbler of Irelands finest single malt I stepped out on the deck to see what changes the weather had wrought. The snow was falling fast and furious, racing through the lights on the edge of the grounds, dashing to and fro in a jumble of flakes, the flaky confusion resembling an airborne version of the original mosh pit at a grateful dead concert. The ground now was covered, each fallen morsel piling on the other, flake by flake, stitch by stitch, weaving a soft white blanket over the earth, the mundane parking spaces now a snow covered playground. The trees off in the distance, those stark, bare branches that usually cut the sky with slashes of winter grey ugliness, now almost majestic in appearance, branches bending into intricate patterns, ice sculptures carved by a maniac snow queen for a winter celebration. Over the frozen waters of the creek off to my right, the snow continued to fall, swirling patterns of ice shaved off some celestial diamond bouncing and skipping with the wind as they covered the icy layers of Thompson creek. The watermans work boats, usually hulking industrial looking crafts covered in netting and cages, now rose like snow covered hills off some surrealistic arctic landscape, these white masses rising from the ice, the harsh workday edges rounded off by the falling snow.The piers extended over the water ways of ice, fingers of whiteness untouched as yet by footprints, just suspension bridges of snowy symmetry and perfection over the ice.

I paused and sipped my glass looking at the newly formed wonderland of wintry excellence, listened to that unique lack of sound that comes on snowy evenings, as the snow covers and muffles the earth and the clouds hang low to earth, disgorging sound baffling clouds of wintry wetness over the earth.

As I stood there, beholding the changes upon the earth, the mundane everyday turned into a painting by some heavenly currier and ives, breathing in the quiet and dampness quality of suspended noise from the world, regarding all that had happened to the world with just the arrival of one small winter storm, I had but one thought at regarding such sights

MAN, I HATE THE FREAKING SNOW.......I GOTTA MOVE SOUTH

Letter to an adult daughter

written after reading what I thought was horrible advice form a man to his daughters.


I too am big on the randy pausch book and thinking of getting a "be a tigger" tatoo. But with the exception of being competent and kind to children, my daughter would be in deep trouble should she take the rest of the advice. think horse whipped.

Tims words to a daughter:

marry a man you love and consider your equal, your friend and your partner. To marry for comfort or money demeans you, my daughter, and implies that you are capable of achieving neither comfort or financial independence on your own. Should that be true, I have failed you as a father. Dress to please your self, but if you choose to dress sexy all the time, understand that some if not many men, will treat you as a sex object and never see who you are. I would suggest a stylish and classy manner of dress that while not deemphasizing your sexuality, allows the rest of you to show through as well. A real relationship will involve your mind and heart as well as your body. Trust me, any man worth his salt can still tell you are sexy without dressing the part. Personally your father finds blue jeans and a tee shirt on a smart woman just enjoying her self and her life about as sexy as it gets.

as an side, unless I marry again, your future husband will NOT have an attractive mother in law. sorry . thems the breaks. some of us age better than others.

your sexuality is YOURS. If you prefer direct then be direct. If not, dont. The man who loves you will not only respect your sexuality but probably help you develop it along with his. Under no circumstances act like gennifer flowers. Although many men may like the accompaniment of an occasional trashy slut, as she found out we dont keep them long.

Never , under any circumstances divorce, romance from the life affirming and practical matters of your life. Do not for one millisecond dismiss a single fraction of who you are or what you believe to get a damn man. I am one. Most of us are not worth that kind of sacrifice. One who is will not ask for it nor desire it.

Indeed judge all men by what they do and not what they say.all women too. dogs and cats as well for that matter

be yourself my daughter. In all things. You are a smart capable young woman who is also beautiful. Be who you want in all things. Live, as dagny taggert did, to your highest ideal and purpose. The man who belongs with my daughter will see all that and want to be a part of it, not in control of it.

latest thoughts

One is reminded that it has been far too long since I contributed so much as a word to this space. All the way back to the sweltering days of summer the space has lain vacant of new thoughts and ideas, frivolities and ramblings. The baseball season and indeed even the hallowed time of the World Series has passed wordlessly. Why, you might ask if you actually gave a shit whether I wrote here or not? Neglect, I suppose. Writing for a living has been a blast and I find I do not take the time I used to just to write for myself. But tonight, I shall again return to my pages, free of censor and unbefouled or besmirched by an edito (note” the ones I work with on a daily basis are actually very good but its such a great line I had to use it).r.
Summer is indeed gone and the flowers are all dying. It was another good one. There were the usual misadventures and boating excursions and escapades. They seemed a bit more subdued this year, The War of Tic Tac and Peru continued unabated until late summer when some sort of mysterious ceasefire occurred and the battle has fallen silent. I suspect some sort of nefarious drug is being used but since TT would swallow any combination of pills anyway, we shall never know. New York was a frequent excursion where as always I managed to liberally mix business and pleasure. I traveled I beached, pooled and enjoyed the living shit out if it as always. Ah summer you fickle slut. Dancing in with hit days and warm nights, endless waves , sweaty cans of beer and frosted gin and tonics. You brings us fast boats, bikinis, star filled nights and so many pleasures and vices that make life such a journey of pleasure. Like all true women of a certain morally causal attitude that I have come to adore, you stay far too short a time before moving on but what a delight while you tarry with us.

Now, fall is among us and the leaves swirl through the roadways in the colorful annual dance that bids fond farewell to summer. The night air sweeps in crisp with the foreshadowing of winter on its wings. Soon it shall be upon us that most evil ex wife of a season. Although there will be moments of incredible beauty and even sensuality hidden in winters icy cloak, at heat she remains an icy foul hearted bitch of a season that tears at your soul with cold snow dripped fingers and cuts through your loins with icy northeast winds. There is only one thing to do at such time. That’s right, fuck it I m going to Florida! Give me the warm embrace of the luxurious sands and the welcome feeling of the warm winds upon my soul as the sun casts its protective warmth on my face. I ll be back for the worst of winter, but I ll spend December in Florida pretending the bitch does not exist and sleep untroubled by frozen dreams.

Lt us tackle the foul tasting subject of the stock market and economy before we move on to more pleasant subjects like fetid bowl movements and mid life circumcision. When this shit started last year I wrote that the persistent government intervention would make this all much worse. Big fucking surprise they have done exactly that. Had we just stepped back and let these fucking rocket scientists and idiots that make up Wall Street. The greedy shits who bought too much house based on a pipe dream a mentally challenged six year old could see was false as a strippers tits would have lost their houses, They are losing them anyway. The greedy scum sucking mortgage assholes who sold them that dream would be waiting tables. They are. A bunch of Wall Street firms would have gone under. They have. The market would have dropped 50% or more. It has and will continue to do so. Had we not not in our governmental wisdom intervened this all would have been over. Like new growth after a fire, there would have been new companies emerging by now to keep the financial markets vibrant. The larger regional banks that did not participate in the toxic rancid stupidity created by their larger brethren would have stepped in to fill the void ny now. We would be recovering. The market would have worked. It would have been painful, but could it possibly be worse than the ass raping we are currently seeing the market? I think not. We have trashed the balance sheet of the central bank, sold the soul of our constitution to Goldman Sachs and the greedy cocksuckers that created the mess in the first place. Now the line is forming for money. Please. Let us sell our souls for federal money. Take my hear, my soul , my balls and my brains . Just give me the money. You stupid fuckers should be fired and run out of town. You ruined your banks and brokerages. You fucked up the auto industry with stupidity and greed. For that matter fuck that pious son of a bitch from the UAW. Give me a god damn break. No concessions? Fuck you then, no job. This is the biggest rip off of not just our money but the character of our nation itself. We are nationalizing our financial industry s well as others. They strip away our rights for own protection with the patriot act and now they steal our very birthright to “preserve the financial system.” Listen you miserable ass wiping motherfuckers; you cannot get away with this. We are going to revolt. Right after the Simpsons, or maybe at halftime. It seems Jefferson is tight and a prosperous people will never preserve liberty. We will change as a nation as a result of this and I wonder what we will become.

As for the market itself there is a fortune to be made over the next several years. I see companies that are profitable trading for less then 3 times E/EBITDA. I see an ever growing list of companies that sell for less than cash in the bank. We are fast approaching the depths of an ugly bear market and there is money to be made. I am buying DAR, HDNG, DOW,ASH and other like a crack addict at a rock convention. I am shorting bonds because anybody that thinks we wont have to turn on the printing presses to pay for this clusterfuck is dumber than me with a naked woman in the room. I am hedging every thing I do. You have to. There is a fortune to be made but the trick is not to lose one while trying.

Let us move on to more pleasant subjects. It has been a good sports year so far, or at least interesting. I remain an Orioles fans for reasons that escape my tortured soul. Every time I am ready to give up on this wretched franchise and walk away to a better team to exhort, they do something to reel me in. Appointing McPhail to run the team and then letting him do it may actually work. We have a decent core and a lot of talent in the farm system. I tool several trips to Bowie this year and the double a club has some serious talent that is a half season or three away from coming up to the bigs. The Weiters kid has the tools to be one of the great catchers There may be brighter days ahead. Of course, just as we got some light, the damn Devil Rays got great. .They may have lost the Series but that is a very talented young ballclub. Add them to the yankees and goddamn scum sucking whale shit slurping red sox as perennial obstacles for my beloved birds. Torre made it to the playoffs while the Steinbrenners did not and the Cubs broke Chicago’s heart once again. It was baseball and I look forward to its return.

Navys football team is playing well and is bowl eligible already. They didn’t beat Notre Dame but they gave them a run for it. Maryland has been the surprise. They were not supposed to be this good. If they beat Florida State Saturday they have a pretty good path to the ACC title. The ravens are much better than expected. The kid Flacco appears to be the real deal and the defense is just plain fucking mean. The combination of violence and half dressed women on the sidelines continues to be one of those things that make the fall and winter a little easier to tolerate. Be even better from a beach bar in Florida next month.

It has been a great book year so far. Doc Ford has shown up as have all of parkers characters. All of my favorites have been prolific this year and the UPS guy is a regular delivering the new ones hot of the press on a regular basis. I have made several journeys to the book thing exchanging literally crates of books. Right now I am reading Michael Dobbs fictional trilogy based on Winston Churchill and they are a seriously good read. There has even been a release of unpublished Bukowski material. Andrew Greely had a new one and I almost went to mass after reading it. There are more in the next month and I intend to take bunch to the Sunshine state with me. Needless to say much of the depth of the cold shitty wet, nasty ass winter that awaits my return will be spent reading.

AH women. The saga of that continues in an unending circle and circus. Women, you foul, wonderful, evil, delightful, heartless, loving, repulsive , attractive, frigid, sexy creatures. The very bane and cause for my existence. Why must you always try to change me after we meet? How can you look at me , drink in one hand, cigarette in the other, playing poker while talking to my bookie on the phone all the while sitting in my apartment that I faithfully clean every Christmas and think I am going to change? Once again a contender for the one has turned into the Nag trying to change what she liked about me in the first fucking place. But onward I plunge. Faint heart never won fair lady and it doesn’t get laid very often either. I may never find her, the Lauren Bacall Dorothy Parker hybrid of my dreams, but I shall continue to search. It may perhaps be somewhat quixotic to do so but at least instead of dueling windmills I shall be undressing attractive women. Seems like a reasonable crusade from this seat.

The journey continues. The stream of this thing we call lie continues unabated until it no longer does. We do not when it ends or what comes next. Like the mind of a woman it is unknowable. What matters then must be the journey. What a cornucopia ( I can use that now. It is almost thanksgiving) has been laid before us. Drunken nights and summer days. Good books and great music. The smiles of our children, the laughter of our friends. First time sex and goodbye kisses. Coffee in bed on a winter morning. Fast boats and slow cruisers. Scotch and steak. First love and broken hearts. Fond hopes and bittersweet memories. They are all the fabric of our lives and we weave the tapestry as we progress along the way. I briefly contemplated the idea of growing up not too long ago and taking it all seriously. I cannot. I will not. I much prefer the childlike approach to life. In his book, The Last lecture, randy pausch said that one of the most important decisions you will make in life is whether you will be a Tigger or an Eeyore. I choose Tigger with abundant bouncing from misadventure to adventure. If tears be the occasional price of laughter then I gladly pay it. If the cost of drunkenness, bit it on booze, women, knowledge or beauty, is a hangover then I pay that price happily. Life is a gift f undetermined time and value beyond understanding. To grow up and approach it a mature somber fashion strikes me as pure idiocy.

It is for friends that I shall give thanks next Thursday. I am cooking this year. The kids and all those demented young adults they call friends shall descend upon my abode demanding copious amounts of free food and drink and I will revel in it. At some point however I shall raise my glass is a quiet toast to my friend, even those who insist of getting married and having babies thereby reducing our quality drinking time. From the Chicago crew to the new Yorkers, from tic tac to the talented blonde. Mr and Mrs tire Guy (dude you so married up), the bible pusher to the shacked up freeloader, the curmudgeonly options guy to the shaky electrician, from Kent Island to California and back again, it is you my friend who add the spice to this adventure. It is for you and to you that I give thanks.

Without them there is no us

Ah, the 4th of July, Independence Day is upon us once again. The smell of charcoal will waft across the nation as back yards everywhere become a monument to mans eternal desire to cook meat over open flames while consuming malt beverages and yelling at the kids. The streets of our towns and cities will be bedecked in red white and blue. There will be parades and old soldiers will suck in that gut and wear their uniform proudly down Main Street once again. High school bands will march sharply and play badly and politicians will wave at the crowd. There will be fireworks all over the country form NY harbor to Armpit Alabama there will pyrotechnic celebrations of our nations founding. I ll be right there with as always. I have a bunch of firecrackers in the closet, a few roman candles and bottle rockets to shoot up the neighborhood on Thursday. We are into gin and tonic season and I ll have a few of those as I celebrate my PETA (people eating tasty animals) membership by grilling up the largest steaks I can find. There will be friends and family, boats and fireworks and all the trimmings as we celebrate the 4th Kent island style.

I will, as I always do, stop and think of all that has gone into our 232 years of existence as a nation. So many have given so much to make and keep us a great nation. One of course think of the military, the soldiers, sailors and marines who have fought ot preserve our cherished freedoms. From the scare citizens who stood on Concord green, hearts beating wildly beneath buckskin as they held a musket in sweaty hand to the scared GI who mutters a quick Hail Mary before leaving the green zone the commitment and sacrifice they have given our country is staggering. I talked to a friend who returned today form visiting Normandy. He talked of the raw powerful emotion he felt looking at the beaches and cliffs those young men assaulted and took. He wept at the cemetery where so many of those young men found their final resting place. Our military won our independence form Britain over 200 years ago and has protected and preserved our status and place in the world ever since. There is no thank you large enough. Without them, there is no us.

I have written before of the contributions of businessmen to our nation. These are often overlooked as men of business are too often vilified and perceived as bad, or even evil. But the contributions of Thomas Edison, Henry Ford, The Rockefellers, the Bill gates and even the Warren Buffetts to our society cannot be ignored. In the name of profit and gain they have spurred technological innovation and industrial revolution. They bought light into our homes and automobiles into our garages. Beause of them we can fly across the globe, have microsecond access to just about anything form a laptop computer. They have provided jobs and contributed generously to build schools, libraries and cultural centers across the United States. Again, without them, there is no us.

Then there is the other businessman who makes our nation great. The little guy. Maybe he owns a tire shop and repair center that provides 7 or 8 jobs. He keeps his customers cars maintained and safe, saving them money and possibly their lives. Perhaps she owns a small accounting service helping others deal with intricate financial and tax problems. Or a restaurant that serves thousands of people a year good food at decent prices. Dozens of people will be employed at such a place, form youngsters with their first job to the middle aged waitress who is raising a couple of kids and works hard to give you the best possible service and dining experience. Small business owners have ink stained hands form their printing press, grease under their fingernails that will never come out entirely, they have sunburn from long days providing landscaping and yard services. They have eye strain from late nights reviewing budgets and payrolls. They live on a curious mix of Mylanta , Hope and energy. They make our r communities better places to live; they provide countless jobs, pay endless taxes and are the financial support for thousands of local charitable and cultural organizations. Without them, there is no US.

Then there is the so called average men and women. They go to work at a variety of jobs each day. The manufacture the products we sue, they provide services to make out lives better. They raise their kids to be better educated than they are and hopefully have an even better life. They spend the money that supports business and industry.hey pay the taxes that make the country function. They go to church and pray for a better world. They socialize with friends and neighbors and share each others burdens and joys. They may live in Wheatfield, Mo or the upper east side of New York City. They are us. Their daily efforts to make their own lives better is what makes the country a little better and a little stronger as the years go by.
I know we are far from perfect. There is no perfect man and no perfect nation. I know that the rest of the world is not that fond of us at times. We are perceived as arrogant and materialistic, spreading the gospel of hip hop and coca cola around the globe. Of course, if the citizens of the governments that despise u sdid not WANT hip hop and Coke, we would not be successful at this. There are more peole who are free on this planet because of us. Without us Europe would be either a German Dictatorship of a Soviet colony. Here would be no communist China. They would be part of the Japanese Prosperity Zone. Latin America would be Spanish and Portuguese America. We have never gone to war over territory. We have never annexed a defeated foe. We have taken the sons and daughters castoff by ther nations and turned them into Americans who have given the world far more than the world has given the United States. Perhaps we are not perfect, but I will take out imperfections over dictatorships and theocracies that still dominate many of the governments of the world.

Many decry our culture. Yes, I am afraid we did give you McDonalds and MTV. We also gave you jazz and Ernest Hemingway. From our lands came Faulkner, Twain, Updike, Kerouac and Mailer. Yes, Brittany Spears is our fault. But we made up for it with Bogart, Sinatra and Katherine Hepburn. From the American soul came the blues and rock and roll. Elvis, Dylan and Robert Johnson all are cut from American cloth. Charlie Parker, count Basie and Miles Davis may be well loved across Europe but they are form the United Sates and their sound and culture was born and thrived here. True we are responsible for the genetic cesspool that is the NBA, but we also give you baseball with Babe Ruth , Mickey Mantle, Joe DiMaggio and Cal Ripken. Our sports are not reserved to the upper classes. A baseball game can be enjoyed by anyone with a ticket, or on a radio while changing the oil or a local tavern television while enjoying a cold adult beverage with a few friends. The good and the great that has come out of our nation far exceeds the average or bad.

The United States of America. Born of a desire to be free to govern, worship, think and live the way each wished. Expanded by the speculations of Thomas Jefferson and the explorers who sought knowledge and land. A land where risk taking and speculation to better ones life is encouraged and supported, where an uneducated immigrant can someday see his sons and daughters attend world class universities. A country where you can, through your own vision and hard work, be who you want and live how you want to live. A place where you are responsible for you own life, but your neighbors are quick to help. A nation that is always first to respond to a disaster whether at home or in a far off land.
We are not perfect. But I still have not seen anything better. The single most important export of the US has been our concepts of freedom and principles of Liberty. It is a nation founded built and protected by the individual efforts of its citizens. It is the land of the free and Home of the brave because of the men and women who are born here, immigrate here and live here. They are US

So be it the backyard grilling burgers and hollering at little Johnny to stop squirting the damn hose all over everybody; or on a terrace in Manhattan; by the lake in Chicago, in the wastelands of Wisconsin with a G&T in hand and gleam in your eye;a boat on the Chesapeake with beer and bikinis in great abundance; or wherever this 4th of July finds you. Remember for a moment to raise a glass in honor of all those who served, who lived, who built, learned, worked, raised kids and strived for a better life. In their strivings, we have found a better nation.

Ramblings from the train

Heading back form an eventful trip to the Apple, sharing a crowded Acela Express I find that I am an ready to be out of the city. I love New York but having to dress like an adult is something of a pain in the ass. Two days of having to wear big boy shoes is wearing thin. I need my faded cut offs and flip flops to feel comfortable and myself again. I went to the bull and bear at the Waldorf last night and have to agree it is a lovely bar. Wonderful old style New York décor, great bar conversations, decent drinks and a running ticker tape to keep track of the world. Of course it should be wonderful for $17 a fucking drink! Give me red eyes and cold gin in a plastic cup with a savings of about 13 bucks a drink any day. I stayed at the Double tree hotel on 51st and Lex and while the location was perfect, the hotel itself was far from it. The hotel surpassed the Algonquin for the smallest room I have ever stayed din. It was beyond tiny. Damn good thing I was traveling alone since the room was not big enough for any wild drunken sexual romps without serious injury to one or more of the participants. Over 330 dollars for a room that would fall short as a closet in a lot of places is a bit much.

The number of foreign tourists in the city is staggering. I heard half a dozen languages tossed around the bar last night. This is not necessarily unusual for me but I was still sober at the time. The one benefit of our government’s heartfelt desire to turn our currency into toilet paper is that all those wealthy Europeans and Asians who hate every ounce and fiber of the American Being and Persona can come over and swizzle scotch at a substantial discount. It is a great time to be selling week old hot dogs and stupid tee shirts in NYC as all the vendors seemed to be doing a brisk business in tourist crap and bad food. A strange world where everyone hates us but rushes to buy the tackiest crap we can sell them.

As for the market, what can I say.?It sucks. It has sucked and by all indications it will continue to suck. This is the Linda Lovelace of stock markets. Oil just will not go down. They raised the price in China and no one cared for more than a few hours. Demand is not going away. An economy that is growing at 10% needs fuel. The tow choices are coal and oil. Both a e higher and probably going to stay that way for the future. I was berated wildly last year for buying ICO and JRCC as they both went down initially. Both are up multiples of the purchase price now and the gain has more than justified the waiting. Food prices are high and getting higher. The Midwest flooding has ruined the already tight grain supplies and this will filter across a wide variety of food oriented commodities. I am not happy about this at all. First cigarettes went up because of Gov RockandRoll Dumbasses tax hike, scotch went up as the dollar fell and now a damn hamburger is going to increase because of flooding and an energy policy that has raped our food supply to make inefficient ethanol. Is this a great country or what?

Financial stocks continue to have a tough go of it as well. Key Corp and Fifth Third were thought to be conservative banks. Until they blew up this week. FITB had to raise a$1 billion to clean up its mess. KeyCorp needed $1.65 billion. The fact that banks can continue to get capital is simply amazing to me. This has to either be foreign money hoping to gain control of the US banking system or some of the dumbest rich guys in the history of the world. Investor s are giving ore money to the same idiots who caused the problems in the first damn place. Bad loans,. Securitized crap, securities they didn’t understand but put a few billion into to gain 50 basis points, the mistakes are almost ludicrous. And now they are raising billions like they had cured cancer.I once thought of changing my name to Tim.Com and doing an IPO. Now, I think I will become TimBancorp and sell a few billion of perpetual preferred stock to fund my next few marriages. The financial system has deep problems and the poor consumer is screwed some many ways right now they must fell like a gang banging porn star who just found out they are doing another take of the pile on. Higher food, higher energy, home price falling. What direction will we get fucked from next? Here’s a clue. Interest rates are starting to rise. I continue to think that only an illiterate deaf mute kamikaze could be aggressively long the US stock market. Of course there are lots of those around. We call them mutual fund managers.

At least it is summer. Last week Richard Ford the noted novelist wrote a piece in the NY Times lamenting summer as the season that disappoints. Like the character in his books it seems that the season falls short of his expectations. Actually I would suggest that Mr. Ford falls short of summer rather than the opposite. Ford is a brilliant writer bit I tire of the life as serious of failed hopes and everyday despairs. As I age I find that I prefer the characters of Richard Russo. The residents of Mohawk know that they grabbed the shitty end of the stock and have been beaten with it in many cases. But they embrace themselves as who and what they are and find a way to get the enjoyment out of life the angst ridden seldom find. You are disappointed in summer? Guess what? Summer is real fucking disappointed in you , pal.

Summer is a season of opportunities. We have suffered through dealing with the moody bitch ice queen that is winter, drudging through snow drifts on sun shortened days, winds that bite like the words of an angry wife wondering just where the hell you have been until 4 am. We have endured the flirtations of the nipple flashing virgin that is spring with her sexy promises but delivering only a peek and a peck pf what summer can deliver. Summer is the denim shorts and halter top clad, bare foot dancing girl of our dreams. She will dance the months away if you only ask.

If you sit and wait for summer to come to you, you will be disappointed. But if you get off your ass and go get it summer will be what you want it to be. There are days of great weather, there is boating ( I will even include you “we have the right of way and could you slow down because the noise hurts muffys ears “pain in my ass rotten shit sail boaters here), there are hammocks under shade tress and lemonade, docks bars and gin and tonic while the band plays rock and roll under the sweaty night sky, there is pace ball in the Bronx and at the yard. They are going t play nine at Wrigley and at fen way and 26 there stadiums this year. This of course does not include the minor league parks all over the country. There is golf if you like dressing up like schmuck and chasing a little white ball. Tennis. Swimming. Little kids playing in the sprinkler. Ice cream sodas. Cold beer. Burgers and dogs on the grill. Sleeping off a hangover on the beach trying to match the rhythm of the waves to the ones pounding in your head. Watching the girls walk down 5th avenue in sundresses. Watching the girls at Redeyes wearing damn near nothing. Fishing in a stream or a lake, trolling in the bay for rockfish
.
It doesnt matter what it is you want, Summer can deliver. But you have to get u off your dead ass and go get it. If you spend all your time whining about the heat or focusing on the everyday the you god and fucking well deserve to miss out. Can you really give a shit that the laundry isn’t put away when the Yankees and birds are playing at the yard and there is a smoking band at the deck bar. Is dusting more important than screaming across the bay at 75 mph on a clear day basking in the sun and the speed? Which would you rather do? Cut the grass and clean house or join a bunch of friends for a raft up at conquest beach, spending the day swimming in the river, drinking beer and laughing your ass off? Me too.

There are things we have to do. Even I know that. There are articles to write, the markets will be open even if they are going down with the regularity of a fat girl at closing time in a tequila bar, and we all have to earn a living. But seriously, save the mundane shit for a rainy day. Play ball, Start your engines, hell ,hoist the mainsail if you must.

But if summer disappoints you, it is your own damn fault. Shes right over there beckoning at you to come play, to dance, to live. If you sit there and wait for her to come to you, like most other things in life you will be sorry.Its summer. Get off your dead ass and go live a little.

latest thoughts

I confess this new career thing is even better than I expected. Writing for a living and managing money for a few select clients is working better than even I ever imagined. On the money front I can hold cash without it affecting my income, I can short stocks without 16 different legal approvals; and trade options withut a decree from on high cosigned by six separate archangels. The writing thing has been wonderful. To write each day and get paid for it is a dream come true, something I never expected and enjoy more than I have words to express. The morning commute to the living room is relatively quick, the coffee is much better than the office and sweat pants are considered appropriate attire. The only thing I have missed is writing just for the hell of it with no assigned topic or deadline. I have not been able to write about island life, sports, or the markets in my own unrestrained voice just for the hell of it for time reasons so I am going to do so now. I find myself with a modicum of spare time (provided I ignore my children’s impassioned pleas to finish their tax returns anyway).

First, the stock market. To this market I can only say “Ipse Cummingo mingere minxi mictum vos”. Loosely translated from the Latin, “I piss on you”. This market is a joke. The rally of late is predicated on things not being any worse than they have been. Sweet freaking Jesus, if they were any worse the financial system may have collapsed. Subprime related losses are going to total almost half a trillion dollars! The fed has sold out Main Street for the benefit of Wall Street, debasing the currency and ignoring potential inflationary pressures to prop up the balance sheets of major financial institutions. They have created new ways to allow banks and brokerages to dump assets onto the public balance sheet and access taxpayer cash to offset bad investments and stupid loans. The economy is just horrible. Orders are falling, backlogs are down and inventories are rising. The consumer is in debt up to his and her eyeballs and for the first time in years they cannot refinance the family castle to pay down their credit cards. There is currently more mortgage debt than home equity in the United States and the number of houses in foreclosures is growing at a rapid rate. Business is off at UPS and Federal Express as both consumers and corporations cut back orders. Retail sales are vapid at best. Consumers are broke and as they account for 70% of our economy I can’t see any reason for a sustained rally. Today’s 3% rally on moderate volume smacks of a short covering inspired bear market rally. Even if I am dead wrong here I think the risk of being fully committed to stocks carries too many risks for the idea of a margin of safety to exist. I am willing to miss this run up to protect capital. There appears to be very little common sense being used on Wall Street these days when it comes to the overall economic and financial matters, as well as a total lack of fear. Bottoms are accompanied by fear and loathing not cheerleading and bottom predictions. The bullish arguments are laughable. Anyone who does not clearly see that the recent pullback in gold and other commodities is deleveraging by hedge funds in light of recent volatility is not looking close enough. Anyone who thinks that the bank write offs are at an end has just simply lost their mind. Yes, eventually they will write all this crap down too far and it will create an opportunity. I particularly look forward to moves like that of UBS to separate the bad assets into separate vehicles as this will create huge pools of underpriced and unloved mortgage assets that no one wants to own, reminiscent of the Texas bad Banks of the late 80s and early 90s. But that time is not now. Small community banks will thrive and benefit from the tighter credit conditions and steeper yield curve. But not yet. Patient investors will see one of the best buying opportunities of their lifetimes. But it is too soon.

I went to opening day yesterday for the first time in years. Along with Mr. and Mrs. Tire Guy I headed up to the yard to watch the birds take on Tampa. The team was as bad as I thought it would be but we had a blast at Pickles and after an extended tour of Baltimore parking garages the NGF (new girlfriend) joined me. Any day at the ballpark is a good time. A day at the park with a beautiful woman is a great time. The team is a s bad as I had feared. However, for the first time since Davey Johnson was fired there are signs of hope around the yards. Instead of just signing whatever over the hill high priced free agents were available, Peter Angelos handed the reigns over to Andy McPhail to start a real rebuilding process. It was hard to see Eric Bedard leave. It will be even harder when he pitches against us this weekend. It will be hard to see Brian Roberts get traded before mid year. But he will, hopefully to the Cubs since they are one of the two teams I am hoping to see in the World Series. A rebuilding year is hard to take from a wins and losses perspective. However, it makes going to the ballpark more fun than going to watch a team that is bad with no prospects. Now instead of watching overpriced over aged talent screw up the game, we can watch for the improvements that have positive implications for next year. Can Adam Jones learn and get better at a major league level? Can Nick Markakis add the 10-12 home runs and 20+ RBIs that take him from good to great? Can Daniel Cabrera throw strikes two games in a row? Does Hernandez’s glove make up for the offense we give up? Can Melvin Mora get hot enough at the plate so we can trade him for a young third baseman who can play defense as well as hit? Does Adam Lowen live up to his seemingly limitless potential? How long before Luke Scott takes his bible and his pistol back to the minor leagues? The wins and losses will be awful but at least there are reasons to watch the games. I am going to cheer for the Orioles to get better, the Twins to outlast Detroit and sweep the goddamn miserable shit eating red Sox in the ALCS and face the Cubs who will have crushed the damn you for 1969 you miserable bastards New York Mets in the NLCS.

The final four is upon us as well. For the first time the four number one seeds will face each other. This promises to be weekend of incredible college basketball. Look at the matchups. UCLA –Memphis is the first game. UCLA’s young star Kevin Love is having an incredible tournament. He is averaging 21.8 points a game and 11 rebounds. Can Joey Dorsey shut him down, or at least slow him down? Freshman derrick Rose of Memphis shredded the much vaunted pair of Texas guards. Can he do as well as the UCLA tandem that already play at an NBA level? Can Memphis make free throws? Will Coach Ben Howlands defense shut down the free wheeling Memphis offense? The edge here is UCLA but Memphis has been shutting up critics for the entire tournament. North Carolina was my preseason pick to win it all and they are in position to do exactly that this weekend. How will the saga of Roy Williams coaching against his old team play out? Can Kansas find a way to stop Tyler Hansborough, who is averaging 21 points and 9.5 rebounds a game? Can Brandon rush step up and have the huge game he need sot for Kansas to have a chance? Wll ty Lawson play to early season form? The edge here is Carolina who has scored an average of 93 points and beaten opponents by an average of 25 points so for in the big dance. The dream matchup here is North Carolina and Memphis in the final. Not coincidentally, it is also the one that saves my bracket!



Spring is upon the island. It may be just me but the Narrows seems to have an air of anticipation about it these days. Although the nights remain somewhat chilled, the days are warming and you can feel the hint of summer on the way. There is talk about who is putting their boat in the water when and what changes they are making. I confess to some concern that the Tic Tac kid is lightening his boat after some of the airborne adventures we experienced last year. Boating is not supposed to include passengers in the fetal position praying for mercy while we are looking down on the bald spots of guys in another boat! Tic Tac is the only guy I know who needs FAA clearance to leave his slip! Coming out of Annies Steak House the other night I could see the construction of Red Eyes new stage in preparation for another summer of bands and bikinis parading across the docks. There was just a hint of high performance gas and roiling BBQ smoke from the food stand in the air. There are steamed crabs and fresh rockfish in the near future, long nights of dock bars and music, the multiple colored summer sunsets on the narrows and all the things that make the island one of the best places on the planet to be in the summertime.

Another sure sign of spring is the fast approaching Keeneland expedition for the Blue Grass Stakes. The annual gathering fo friends and assorted degenerate gamblers and desperate drinkers is one of the best trips of the year and it is now less than two weeks away. We will suffer from the absence of the Kentucky Colonel who is apparently inconsiderate enough to schedule childbirth during racing season. The group will be a little smaller as Texas Tim bough his now wife, then fiancé, last year, and is not allowed to associate with us anymore .The Iowan is suffering from dementia bought on by excessive consumption and promotion of ethanol and other corn based biofuels and is unable to attend. However, as always Crossman and I will be there to provide entertainment and the Bet the Pink Mets fan will be there. The voodoo prof is putting in an appearance and the listmaster, with his iron Curtain contingent are scheduled to show up. So is “fuck it just sell more” Thompson from Chicago. For the first time ever in the multi years of the event (without checking bail slips and bar tabs I cannot recall exactly how many years this trip has continued) I will be bringing a girlfriend. Naturally, the degenerates have started a pool on how long before she flees in terror. I have the over on this one. She’s already seen me with a snoot full of Irish on St Patrick’s Day! We will have a great day at one of the more scenic and historic racetracks in the country, have great food at deShays and drink too much at McCarthy’s and put yet another memorable After Dark trip into the memory books.

Life could not be better right now. In a lot of respects I am living my dream and fully aware how lucky that makes me. Both kids are doing great, working and doing well in school and I have resisted the urge to dispose of my son’s menagerie while he was at work. For the first time in recent memory there is actually someone I like and care about enough to call a girlfriend. Spring is here and summer is coming. Baseball is back and it looks to be the best final four in memory. Life is an adventure and right now I seem to be on the sunny part of the trip.