One noticeable aspect of the stock market the past few years
is the absence of the retail investor. Although we get an occasional surge of
retail inflows like we saw in January for the most part individuals have
avoided the stock market. They may have some exposure through retirement plans
but after seeing two devastating losses in less than a decade many people have
just gotten scared and stayed away. Many fell, with some justification, that
the market is rigged against them by high speed and high frequency traders that
exploit their order flow. The brokerage firms have not really been a friend of
the individual over the years either. A lot of potential investors feel like
the stock market is simply a game they cannot win and therefore do not play.
It is important to recognize that much of the pain inflicted
on retail investors is done by retail investors. Numerous studies indicate that
the average investor does not perform as well as the averages. There is a
tendency to over trade and allow fees and commissions to eat into their
margins. Rather than exploiting the fear and greed cycle they usually are the
cycle selling in a panic at the bottom and worst of all buying into the excited
frenzy as prices have nearing the end of a bull run. We tend to buy stories and
sales pitches and ignore fundamentals and often fail to do the homework needed
to be a successful investor.
The truth is that the biggest mistake investors make is not
exploiting the significant advantages we have over the large institutional
investors. Wed can do things they cannot and can adopt a mindset that has
proven profitable but the large hedge and mutual funds simply cannot adopt.
First, and perhaps most importantly, we do not have to play
the short term return game. Measuring the performance of a business or an
investment fund by quarterly results is ludicrous but that is exactly what
happens in the investment arena. Fund managers have to keep up with the indexes
and their competitors and this leads to adopting a herd like mentality and doing
what everyone else does to keep up. You and I do not have to do that and can
adopt a longer term more business like view of our investments.
We have no institutional mandates or style box concerns to
consider. We can own as high or small a percentage of stocks compared to bonds
as we choose. We can hold as much cash as we want to as well. Odds are we will
not fire ourselves for buying a stock that doesn’t pay a dividend as mandated
by the prospectus or account agreement. If one of our stocks does not fit into
the large cap socially conscious growth classification we do not have to resign
from our account. It is our money and we can mix it up with value stocks,
special situations and even growth stocks as we see fit.
We have an enormous size advantage as well. One of my
favorite stocks right now is an aerospace company with a market cap of about
$70 million. A fund with a $1 billion under management cannot buy a 1% position
of the stock without moving the price and triggering a 13G filing with the SEC.
You and I do not have that problem and can venture into areas the big guys
simply cannot.
We have a huge time advantage as well. If we consider one of
our stocks to be a solid business with a margin of safety we can hold it for as
long as need to for the price to reflect the value. We can view put portfolio
as a collection of businesses and allow time to unlock the value. The
institution cannot do that as they have to keep up with the Dow Joneses and do
not have the luxury of time. My best results have come from stock held for many
years but most of the big funds have a turnover rate of close to 100%.
One of our biggest advantages comes from not having to play
just because the casino is open. Getting caught up in the action is usually
disastrous for individuals with careers or a business to run, a family and
other time-consuming obligations. Trading is hard work and the simple truth is
not that many people are really good at it. When you get the urge to swing
trade that 100 shares of a high flyer keep in mind that the guy on the other
side probably has twin Phds in math and econ and needs special air conditioning
units to cool his computers he uses to trade. He is a shark and he views you as
lunch. Don’t be lunch.
The most powerful stock market story ever was told by John
train many years ago in Forbes magazine. He introduced to us to the pig farmer
Mr. Womack who always made money in the stock market. When Mr. Womack saw on
the news that Wall Street was in disarray and in full disaster made he would
drive into town and buy some stocks that had fallen precipitously, had sound
balance sheets and paid dividends. He then forgot about the stock market for
the most part until after a period of few years he noticed that the papers were
full of talks of new market highs and wildly optimistic prediction. He would
then drive back into town and sell his stocks. On balance the man never lost
money in the stock markets and enjoyed significant gains and a steady flow of
dividends.
You have significant advantages over the big funds and large
traders. Use them to make you investing more business-like and more profitable.
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