It was bought to my attention that in last week’s articles on
the cheapest stocks no banks were mentioned. I assure you this was intentional
on my part. As part of my ongoing efforts to avoid anything remotely resembling
frolicking here at the beach I have spent my time calling everyone I ever met
to discuss weighty and lengthy business matters. I also set aside several
matters that would require in-depth arduous research and consume as much of the
daylight hours as possible. While the others are engaging in traditional beach
activities I am on the deck considering bank stocks over a cup of coffee.
While the larger regional banks caught fire last week as
investors realized that higher interest rates could actually be good for them
this really did not trickle down to the smaller community banks. These stocks
are not attracting much investor interest. They are too small for most
institutional investors and individual investors. The have moved up off the
lows but their valuations do not reflect the vast improvement in their balance
sheet and financial condition. The returns from these stocks over the next five
to 10 years will be breathtaking in my opinion
The bank stocks that rank among the very cheapest on a price
to book value basis have some ongoing problems that have caused the very low
valuations. Some are still dealing with credit and loan loss issues while
others will need to raise capital. Others are simply struggling to remain
profitable due to low net interest margins and higher regulatory and compliance
costs. As a result these banks have a
few proverbial fleas on them. If they are able to dust off the fleas and clean
up their act the stock prices should rise by several multiples of the current
price.
I am a little constrained by market cap and liquidity issues
as the very cheapest bank stocks are too small and illiquid to write about.
However the cheapest of those large enough to mention is actually the largest
bank on the list. I have discussed Synovous Financial (SNV) and will not
reinvent the wheel here. Suffice it to say the bank is rapidly cleaning up its
act and the stock is very cheap at just 60% of tangible book value. They sold
off some distressed assets and but the bullet and charged off others to clean
up the balance sheet. The stock may not get back to its pre-crisis highs in
above $30 a share but even halfway back would be a 6 bagger.
Intervest Bancshares (IBCA) is hitting new highs but the
stock still trades for less than 70% of tangible book value. I confess to
missing the boat on this one as the stock did not fit my strictest guidelines
and I missed the 13d filings by several sharp bank activists. The bank has
cleaned up its act and is no longer operating under restrictions from the Office
of the Comptroller of the Currency, although the holding company is still bound
by an agreement with the Federal Reserve that restricts some activities. They
were recently successful in buying back some TARP securities from the Fed. It
may take some time for nonperforming assets to get back to the level of their
peers but the upside is tremendous if they continue to have success.
Mutual First Financial (MFSF) is also on the list of
cheapest bank stocks. This stock first came to my attention when the guys at PL
Capital filed a 13d on the stock earlier this year. The activist firm owns 8%
of the bank but has not put forth any activist proposals so far. The bank is
not setting the world on fire but conditions are improving steadily. Nonperforming
loans are 2.52% of all loans, roughly in line with its peer group. The equity
to asset ratio is 10 so they have adequate capital right now. The ROE and ROA
are well below their peer group right now but that should improve with time. If
it doesn’t look for increased pressure to sell the bank. A sale would be well above the current 70% of
tangible book value.
Several of our old favorites are still on the list as well.
Berkshire Bancorp (BERK) has not done much in the last year but it is still
cheap at 80% of tangible book value. Pacific Mercantile (PMBC) is still at less than 80% of tangible
book value as well. The super cheap banks may take some time to see their price
improve but for long term investors the greater risk is in not owning these
trade of the decade stocks.
No comments:
Post a Comment