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Wednesday, June 15, 2005

romance and markets

Found this in a forgotten collection of disks...forgot I had even written this few years ago after the first Spec Party I attended...never posted it but it seems worth sharing..and if not...hey thats what the delete key is for

Romance..the word itself carries a multitude of images and benevolent moon and dancing stares, discrete champagne rendezvous with lovers. The word is used to describe movies, individuals, couples, lifestyles, literature, music. It can be found in descriptions of Shakespearean sonnets and on lurid covers of cheap novels full of heaving bosoms and torn corsets, in movies filled with angst and heartbreak We think of the great romantic pairing, Tracey and hepburn, Napoleon and Josephine, Lancelot and guinvere, Humphrey and Ingrid, and of course harry and sally. Romance can mean adventure, exotic travel, a waterfront view.The term conjures different images from different people from the romance soaked dreams of the oprah watching frustrated housewives to the adventure travels of the jet set..ask a hundred different people,get a hundred different answers. Ask the same person on a different day and the answer can change...strolling hand in hand with the one you love on Monday, floating down a river with Huck and Tom on Tuesday, the tarmac with Rick and Renault wistfully watching the departing Lisbon plane on Friday..Romance is a basic ingredient of the well lived life. Romance conjures many things essential to the essence of life, the soaring words of a Shakespeare, the earth soaked love of yeats, the hedonistic joy of a wilde, the soaring tones of a Bach, a Beethoven, the sensual mutations of handels Water music, the longing in the first glance in anew loves eyes, the sensation of a first kiss, the world itself enveloped in a space that contains only two and yet somehow everything.many images, many thought, many identities.

The one that is the most striking and yet the most overlooked is one that has occurred to me several times and sees worth exploring.. the romance of the markets and those of us who dwell there. It is easy to see the knight so of old and James bond as romantic..but speculators?To explore the word and the connections more closely, first we must look at the words themselves. Turning to Miriam Webster and his revising associates we find many definition for each that are worth examining as they apply to the world those of use who dance with the market mistress each day.

Main Entry: 1ro.mance 1 a (1) : a medieval tale based on legend, chivalric love and adventure, or the supernatural (2) : a prose narrative treating imaginary characters involved in events remote in time or place and usually heroic, adventurous, or mysterious (3) : a love story b : a class of such literature 2 : something (as an extravagant story or account) that lacks basis in fact 3 : an emotional attraction or aura belonging to an especially heroic era, adventure, or activity 4 :
LOVE AFFAIR

Main Entry:1 : consisting of or resembling a romance2 : having no basis in fact : IMAGINARY3 : impractical in conception or plan :
VISIONARY4 a : marked by the imaginative or emotional appeal of what is heroic, adventurous, remote, mysterious, or idealized b often capitalized : of, relating to, or having the characteristics of romanticism c : of or relating to music of the 19th century characterized by an emphasis on subjective emotional qualities and freedom of form; also : of or relating to a composer of this music 5 a : having an inclination for romance : responsive to the appeal of what is idealized, heroic, or adventurous b : marked by expressions of love or affection c : conducive to or suitable for lovemaking 6 : of, relating to, or constituting the part of the hero especially in a light comedy

Main Entry: ro.man.ti.cism 1 often capitalized a (1) : a literary, artistic, and philosophical movement originating in the 18th century, characterized chiefly by a reaction against neoclassicism and an emphasis on the imagination and emotions, and marked especially in English literature by sensibility and the use of autobiographical material, an exaltation of the primitive and the common man, an appreciation of external nature, an interest in the remote, a predilection for melancholy, and the use in poetry of older verse forms (2) : an aspect of romanticism b : adherence to a romantic attitude or style 2 : the quality or state of being romantic- ro.man.ti.cist

Again to our friends at websters:

Main Entry: spec.u.late 1 a : to meditate on or ponder a subject : REFLECT b: to review something idly or casually and often inconclusively 2 : to assume a business risk in hope of gain; especially : to buy or sell in expectation of profiting from market fluctuations transitive senses 1 : to take to be true on the basis of insufficient evidence : THEORIZE 2 : to be curious or doubtful about : WONDER synonym
Main Entry: spec.u.la.tion: an act or instance of speculating : as a : assumption of unusual business risk in hopes of obtaining commensurate gain b : a transaction involving such speculation Bottom of Form 0

Speculators are by nature and in being a strange and unusual breed of people. We have chosen a path that would seem predestined for failure. All the studies seem to agree, if on nothing else, that 90% of all speculators fail. Most of us are educated people with a good grasp on life and the concept of risk versus reward, and yet we eschew the normal life in favor of chasing dancing red and green blips across an electronic landscape full of dangers and dragons that would turn St George white with fear. Perhaps along with Joyce s Stephen hero, acutely feel the insidious dangers which conceal themselves under the guise of extravagance but are convinced also that a dull discharge of duties,neither understood or congenial,was far more dangerous and less satisfactory.Each day we assail the summit, charging in full view of the world aspiring to the mountain peaks of success while in constant danger of the ever present pit of Monday morning margin calls have all known the feeling of pride in a good trade that turns sour with a single utterance from a defense secretary starting with that contrarian killing word regrettably ( for an excellent description of this event from a specs point of view, see Victor Niederhoffers education of a speculator). The world and all the studies in history predict our failure before we click the mouse or call the floor to enter our first trade. We are universally vilified in the press. Blamed for the near collapse of the bank of England, the crash of 87 and the Asian meltdown of 1997( it is interesting that speculators are so hated by the mainstream, it was the champion of the downtrodden and exploited, author John Steinbeck who pointed out : I don t know where speculation got such a bad name since I know of no forward leap which was not fathered by speculation)..And yet, here we are, chasing the numbers across the screen, speculators speculating.

There is of course, something quixotesque about the average speculator.. I'm talking now of the individual risking his funds and his future primarily, not the slick young men and women trading the seemingly limitless funds of Goldman and Salomon but the individual trader or fund manager who stakes his all and own on his trading and analytical abilities. We tilt against the windmills of academic thought, of traditional beliefs and against the odds of the market mistress herself. Our quest is for knowledge, for gains, for independence, and of course for wealth. The original don was out of course to better the world and right wrongs..not the usual aim of a speculator although some, notable Soros and templeton have used enormous portions of their wealth to attempt to reshape society as the believe it should be and assist others in improving their lot,,,but these activities would seem to be secondary to, not the central point of, their speculations). Like the windmills on the plains of la mancha, all is not as we see it in our endless calculations and study, and we are battered and beaten for the mis seeing. But like the good Alonso, we pick up to live on and fight another day. There are those who would drag the Mad dons of the market back to the center.wives, in laws, friends and neighbors, back from our foolish tilting against the odds and the gods, but for some of us, the windmills of the market are preferable to the safety of the ordinary.Although most of the successful specs I know are above average in intellect, education, and life experience and could easily hold down high paying, lower risk corporate jobs, the vast majority choose not to. There seems to be a mindset among speculators, that since I share, I think I can attempt to describe.

It would seem to be something along these lines, taken from a letter to a friend in response to the question of why I was always out on the edge taking risks with my money,and my life.

All the mundane grinding of the day to day gathers into a long trail of nothing.. not remarkable, not remembered at all or recalled at any time. Yet so many live this way each day, cocooned in their safe little cabins of mundane averageness, they trudge the roadway of life, a dry, dusty road with only the occasional water stop where warm tepid water is passed out by bored looking minions and guardians of the path, dressed as bosses, as parents, priests and ministers, politicians and rabbis, murmuring promises of some strange unknown unexplainable reward down the road..they've never experienced it or been past their own little water stop but they promise if you keep moving, following the form in front of you, not stopping, no exploration, suck in the dust, eyes upon the dull brown of the path, somewhere, somehow down that road something better awaits all the while off to the side of the road those souls who recall the passion and spirit of adventure they were born with and refused to have it beat out of them by so called normalcy, have found that just off the side of the road, through the gray bleakness of the concrete walls on that dusty road, are beautiful glens and hollows, with spreading tress with shade and lush sensual green grass, and music plays soaring, Beethoven s 9th, handles water music, vivaldis 4 seasons, and james brown ,sinatra, its all their off to the side, and wine is sipped and food is plentiful,..its right there, just to the side of the road..you can hear the music as you trudge along, but so many just keep walking, paying the mortgage, mowing the lawn, going to church, avoiding sinful sex, listening to top 40 and watching a very brady sequel and jerry springer. Or that girl reruns. Reading stephen king novels as literature and may angelou, when over in the glade they read Shakespeare, baudelaire, joseph conrad, ernest hemingway, they watch the old film noir movies and the great romantics, bogart, cary grant, talent and script not just half dressed bodies and violence impersonating art I mean as nice as half dressed bodies are what good is one on the screen without one in your arms?What is it that drives some of us over the wall, to recognize that life is not a dull dreary drudgery, that the intent of whatever benevolent deity created us did not intend this dreary, thirsty trudge, but that the road was only the path we took from glen to glen from quiet dell to raucous valley? There is risk in going over the wall..It is topped with the razor sharp wires of loss, heartbreak, poverty, pain..The water passers have seen to that. But isn t the risk of losing it all, betting it all on love, on lust, on poets and on poems better than this? Anything lost going over the wall can be regained,, I've proven that. I have been impaled on the wires many times, been rich, been broke, bet big, won big, lost big, been loved, been lost..but each time I find healing in the glade, healing for my body, healing for my mind, for my soul. There is peace in the arms of a lover, the words of a song, the ring of Shakespeare s words, the musings of joyce, the touch of a woman s lips and the sparkle of her eyes. To find the glades, the valleys, the love, the lust. The passion, the romance we must be willing to assume risk, to swallow it and let it dribble down our chins so what,; What are we risking? A lifetime of walking down that dusty road, living on the lukewarm spittle passed out by the water keepers of society. Fine, I will risk it. For me, it so ver the wall, risks be dammed. Play the music, fire up sinatra, lets dance to a little James brown, and lets drink, smoke,, drink the wine of life and spill on each other, winestains on our shirts and smiles on our lips..lets shoot craps in the alley, read Shakespeare by the pond,lie on the beach at dawn watching moonbeams skip the surf like scattered handfuls of diamonds leaping in the foam,lets get drunk and read EE cummings.lets kiss,make love..lets dance,lets sing,.lets savor the moments that make up this erotic, romantic, sensual incredible cornucopia of life that some wonderful god(dess)has laid before us sure we have to walk the dusty road one in while, me have to raise kids, pay for roofs and food .and it s the only way to the next valley so we walk a little ways, but always aware of the soft songs and delighted laughter to the side

I do not meant with my words to create an image of speculators as carefree sensualist who eschew work in favor o of play or looking to live on the quick score. For most, even those who have hit the big one a multitude of times, speculating in financial markets is a kind of love affair, We cannot imagine not doing it . And far from the image of the wild eyed Diamond Jim carefree amoral speculator created in literature and media, speculation is work. To develop the theories and approaches, the patience and the discipline necessary to successfully trade in the financial markets requires a work ethic that would make a 19th century new england Protestant green with sinful envy.If romance is as defined above in main (3), a love story, then speculation is romance. For you cannot do this for very long if you do not love it. The stress, the emotional swings, the long hours and tedious research would drive one quite mad without an underlying love of the gyrations of business and finance. I have known many super successful traders and investors. All worked long hours, were capable of losing all track of time while researching a new idea or theory,and truly love what they do.I believe it was Churchill who said that a mark of success to go from failure to failure without a noticeable lack of enthusiasm. This seems to be a trait of successful tradersLike any truly good love story, there are periods and times of heartbreak. Virtually all of us have danced with or fallen into the pit of the Monday morning margin call. The greatest among us, Soros, niederhoffer, robertson, Jones, have tasted the ash of the big fall. The misadventures of Michael Marcus, the reclusive currency mega trader described in the first edition of Schwagers market Wizards in his early trading adventures show an amazing resilience to failure, an uncanny ability to take blows that would shatter mere mortals. Like Ali in the foreman fight, successful speculators seem willing to suffer shattering blows and yet continue to learn,grow and pursue their chosen craft.

Perhaps along with the great violinist, Igor Stravinsky we have come to understand that we learn chiefly through our mistakes and pursuit of false assumptions, not by exposure to fonts of wisdom and knowledge.I suspect it is our love of the game and belief in ourselves and the romantic, wonderful nature of life and the universe possibilities and probabilities that starts us back on the path, unable to stop anymore than the Don could stop his mad search for Dulcieana. Or yeats Mad aegnus could stop searching holly land and hilly land for her, wherever she had gone.In fact our love affair with the markets often strains other love affairs in our life. It takes a rare breed of man or woman to be married to or committed to a speculator,esecially in the early days. It is perhaps easier after success and the park avenue apartment and long island estate but even then they live with the knowledge that it can disappear in a blink, and that often their companion will leap up from a romantic dinner with a eureka and run to the bloomberg and the spreadsheets as an idea comes to fruition.

Most of us would be better waiting until we find a spouse along the lines of a spec spouse who wrote the following during this during a particularly tumultuous time in the markets:Memo to All Spec Spouses:>>It has come to my attention that some of you are getting a bit nervous>over recent events in the market and inadvertently transmitting such anxiety to>your trading partners. CEASE IMMEDIATELY!!>As has been noted many times on these pages, emotions can play a >powerful role in trading decision-making. Terrible market declines >sorely test the strongest trader and can shake one's self-confidence. >This can be a recipe for disaster by prompting a trader to throw in the towel just before >the market turns in his favor.>>At this point the worst thing a loving spouse can do is further erode >your trader's confidence in himself (or herself). He needs a clear >head and calm surroundings to fully concentrate on the problem at hand and focus on >the proper direction forward. Suggestions of trades he could have made >on the close yesterday or queries about the amount of liquid capital >available to the household today are generally not helpful.>>Rather you should marshal all your resources to show your trader that >you have confidence in his ability to do the right thing. Remind him >of all the times in the past that he has snatched victory from the jaws of defeat >by doubling up at the bottom. It is sometimes helpful to let your >trader know that you love him no matter what and that material things have never >meant a lot to you (although this can backfire on traders who pride >themselves on being good providers). Intercept the phone calls of >worried friends calling to see if you are ok. Make sure the children play quietly and are >extra nice to Dad. Distract him after the market is closed and let him talk about >it without offering advice.>>And be sure to remind him that so long as he has enough chips to play >tomorrow he can always make it back...>>Respectfully submitted,Spec Spouse

Other qualities needed for a speculators spouse are found in the reply of Jennifer lackey, the wife of a wild eyed day trader and race car aficionado, James lackey of FloridaYour message sounds to be from the heart of an actual trader. As a traders wife, I have always been supportive, even when the times have been tough. And believe me, we have been through some tough times!!! I bite my tongue every time he has a bad day, and comes home saying the same thing he said 2 days before, " I'll NEVER hold overnites again!" And what do you think he does the very next day?....With a great excuse of course, "but honey, I know the whole world is crashing....trust me! So, last nite he holds overnites and at 2:30 A.M. he wakes up in a panic attack, because everything IS crashing, only nothing is in his favor. By 9:30A.M. he's got fever blisters forming from nerves because he's trying so hard not to blow up. The good thing about blowing up is knowing that once you recover (sometime in the next year) you have learned so much of what you should have done and what you should never do again. I trust him totally and let him know that if he comes home and says "Honey, I lost $50,000.00!", I just say " That's O.K. honey, you'll make it back tomorrow." And he does! Jennifer Lackey(AND ADDED NOTE>>LACK>>YOU LUCKY SOB>>TM 8/13/04)

Such individuals are of course , as rare as successful speculators themselves. However one has only to watch Yale Hirsch and his wife and they way they still look at each other to understand the possibilities.Most of the specs I have met tend to be passionate people, passionate about more than just markets, but life, people, theories,ideas, politics,music..in short everything.

The majority that I have know are also somewhat sensual in their approach to life. History tends to bear this out with episodes and sexcapades of great traders being legend among industry insiders. Stories of the lecheries of the early robber barons traders and modern great alike abound. Even the grandfatherly renowned Ben graham ( call him the original value investor if you like. As near as I can tell from his writings and autobiography he may have taught careful analysis, but in practice he appears to have used his skills to speculate on liquidations and arbitrage type situations) was so well known as a ladies man that friends and associates were loathe to leave their wives in a room with him. The first fixed income derivative was apparently developed by Casanova, who was also know as a speculator, mathematician and gambler.The board of trade and merc alike are riff with reported and rumored sex scandals over the years.Amazingly, beyond the chapter on sex and speculation in victor book ( if you don t recall it, I highly suggest rereading it..it is educational, enlightening and entertaining as hell. ), there is very little written on this topic. There are thousands of books on speculation, and thousands more on sexuality. no one it seems has et been brave enough to explore the correlation of the two. Anecdotal evidence supplied n the after hours sessions now known as spec list after dark tend to bear out the conclusions of the passionate and sensual nature of traders and speculators. Over Famous Grouse, makers mark( the bourbon drinkers in the room, tasteless heathens that they were are reminded to once again thank Susan for that generouscontribution) and a bottles of wine left from that days dinner, the conversations in a well rounded room including options traders, distressed securities speculators, futures traders, stock guys and at least one psychologist, from 6 states and at least 4 nations that I can recall expounded with fervor on their beliefs on everything under the sun. As the libation intake increased, the ribald and sensual views of several were expressed in no uncertain terms.

Although not thoroughly researched or studied, this small microcosm of the universe tend to support the theory of speculators as romantic and sensualists underneath the calculations and theorizing.It is in the definition of romanticism that I find the truest comparison to the life and motivations of speculators. The life of a speculator does seem to me to be a school of philosophic,artistic and literate one. Universally the specs I have met, the ones still around after the bust, the ones with the commitment drive and discipline to survive have adopted a view of the world and philosophy that serves them well Thomas Hampton in the PBS series, I hear America singing, defined the romanticist thusly:

Embracing the unknown and unafraid of the contraries of human existence, the Romantics overthrew the philosophical, artistic--even geographical--limitations of the Enlightenment. The quintessential Romantic figure was the Wanderer, literally and figuratively journeying in search of new lands, new places in the imagination, and new vistas for the soul. Exotic lands, the amorphous world of dreams, the dark terrors of the psyche as well as the dizzying heights of creativity and the dazzling beauties of Nature--these were all waystations along the Romantic quester's route.

The throw off of convention and the search for new ideas, new vistas in common theme among those who trade the markets. It takes enormous imagination, creativity and focus on self to make a living this way.It was George Bernard Shaw who observed that all progress is the unreasonable, therefore all advances are the result of the efforts of unreasonable men, Thomas huxley who postulated that all advances in natural knowledge have involved the absolute rejection of authority. Successful speculators set there own terms for how they choose to live, and they are outside the bounds of the normal corporate advancement, commuting, television watching norm.I am continually amazed by the output of specs away from the markets. Seemingly the intellectual curious nature of the average spec takes them down many fields and paths, the results being numerous books being written, paintings commissioned, artists sponsored, companies developed and life s enhanced. Many are accomplished musician finding a similarity between market patterns and musical ones. There have been psychological discoveries, scientific advancements in math, chemistry, biology developed by those whose intense intellectual curiosity takes them not just to the markets but done every possible path the human mind can explore.

Examining the parallels between romantic literature and the life of a speculator that the pure romanticism of speculating for a living,becomes, to me, the most apparent. N the world of finance and trading all of the great themes of romantic novels are played out daily, and the all the stereotypical heroes and villains are present. We have kings, would be kings,fallen kings and pretenders to the throne. For every Rockefeller and Soros, we have a Livermore, a Daniel Drew and a Boesky, giants for a short time felled by their own visions or corruption. We have alchemists attempting to spin gold from flax, would be wizards with complex formulae, characters of the unlikely names of gann, merriweather and citron are among the many who have declared that they and they alone knew the secrets of the market mistress only to find spray painted bars of lead in the vault at the end of the day. The grand wizards, those smart enough to know alchemy is a sham but still capable of issuing definitive statements of laboratory success that may or may not work in the real world, men such as fama, french, samuelson, sharp and malkiel, We have our prophets of doom and gloom, the witches of grant,abelson and feschback continually stirring the cauldron of falling prices and imminent collapse, knight errants such as lynch and bogle out to save the common man from his underinvested plight --hell we even have jesters ala cramer (okay the guy has a reputation as a good trader and astute observer but his maniac behavior and outrageous statements brand him jester) and glanville. All the lords and ladies of the grand court are present in the speculators world.One of the common themes of romantic literature is the seagoing man pirate and privateer, a them that transfer well to discussions of speculators and speculation. Not because speculation is an inherently evil practice or robs and pillages society as one might think ( in fact without speculators, the concept of democracy and free market has a life span of something like two days), but because the motivations are similiar.I suspect many of use who now speculate would have been adventurers ,privateers and pirates had we been born in a different time.

But as the troubadour of palm trees and south seas, jimmy the other buffet sings, the cannons don t thunder, theres nothing to plunder in a modern society. A desire to build wealth outside the norms of society to live as one chooses. Thomas Cochrane the inspiration for Horatio Hornblower and o Briens jack aubrey was know for his daring, his willingness to take a stand against the odds. There seems to be some credence to the story that he chose the sea after his along with his father s intellectual curiosity and experiments bankrupted the family estate. His curiosity led to develop numerous weapons of war over the years, and his boundless thirst for adventure cause his life to read as a heroic novel.it is this boundless quest for knowledge and spirit of independence and adventure is similar to securities traders today. Sir Walter Raleigh was trained in the law but his drive for success and adventure led him to become a privateer and explorere.captain jh callie was a retailer who grew board and joined the Navy to escape the everyday.Stede bonnet was a respectable merchant and planter who turned to piracy, some say out of an aversion to respectability, while others insinuate that it was to escape a nagging wife.men of earlier times took to the seas to seek fortune, or perhaps fame. It was a hard life replete with dangers and arduous tasks but allowed an escape from the ordinary and mundane and a chance for great riches. In days of yore they galloped the Spanish main and sailed the blue Caribbean under letters of marque, chasing galleons and sloops.

Today, men of adventurous commercial spirit and a romantic heart chase markets, dodging margin calls rather than cannonballs, tracking market movements in shades of red and green rather than skies of red at first light, sighting emerging patterns and trends rather than far off masts, but the spirit of fierce independence and desire for achievement outside the ordinary is similar.

Another of the common themes of romantic and adventure literature is that of the solitary man, the man standing outside the norms of society, making it on his own terms and in his own way. The works of Louis L amour, particularly the sackett series show this sprit of adventure , the tremendous self belief, a desire to explore new lands, build wealth and climb the summit of life on ones terms. Jack schaefers Monte Walsh is a masterpiece of the genre, exploring the themes of live lived as one desires,not as one is told. By developing a special skill set devoting the time and effort to become a master at his craft of cowboying and horse breaking, Monte lives as he chooses, not as others dictate. His fanatical devotion to his craft and to his close circle of friends are traits observable today in trading rooms from weston ct to san diego ca and all points in between.In literature, the solitary soul is often on the prairie, in the forest of the old west, or perhaps the middle eastern trade routes of the middle ages, seeking, learning,exploring the world and himself. Toady with the notable exception of Bo and those few like him, I think the solitary dreamers and seekers are found behind quotrons and bloombergs, living outside dictated societal terms, surrounded by close and devoted groups of friends and associates learning about the markets, about the world and most of all about themselves.

Perhaps I have reached too far describing the speculator as a romantic, the tradecraft practiced by them as a romantic one. Certainly the mathematical and studious nature of speculation would not seem to be the root of a romantic soul. However among those I have had the extreme pleasure to know and associate with over the years, the common traits seem to be a boundless optimism, well developed self belief. A vision of the world as a wonderful exciting place worth exploring and celebrating.They are willing to risk themselves, their capital, their mental and emotional security on the strength of their thought s and their ideas. They the develop discipline required to embrace risk and tend to see danger as opportunity.They cherish art, literature, music,science and seemingly all intellectual endeavors and practices. They refuse to be told how to live and eschew the mundane for the possible and celebrate live at every turn. And that, to my mind, is romantic.

book thoughts

after having my head not just handed to me..but handed to me after it wasused for a rousing game of soccer in last few weeks, I spent saturdaymorning rechecking the sanity of my positions, reviewing balance sheets,income statements etc to make sure I hadnt suddenly lost the last few IQ points I possess. reaching the conclusion that my views and positions were as correct as i could make them and that as usual, my timing was justbrutally bad....it seems to be one of lifes little laws than within 30 daysof accepting a marriage proposal from me, a woman develops a need fortherapeutic continuous use of my american express card, and within momentsof my deciding a stock or sector is a screaming buy they will drop to the ohs*** level before attempting to rebound....I decided that some avoidancetherapy was called for..I booted up the new jimmy buffet cd. to the almostbut not quite loud enough to annoy the neighbors level..(the first of two suggestions in this post...for those fans of buffet music and themelvinesque lifestyle..this is mandatory listening...by far the best newstuff in 10 years...) poured a big ice tea in my jeff gordon 32 oz big gulpcup and looked for some mindless reading material that contained no numbers,forecasts, pontifications or the need for any thought above the level forsustaining life.....in a stack of books given as gifts and put on thesomeday pile I found a tome that seemed to fit the bill.....a manuscriptwith the unlikely and unfortunate title of Island of the Sequined Love Nunsby Christopher Moore...chase the blues?...and then some....by afternoons end I had finished thefirst and run off to borders for other of the authors pieces....this stuffis just funny,,no polite chuckle or amused grin here...we re talking laughat loud, roll on the floor, expel fluids through the nasal passages funny.the writing in incredibly intelligent, his imagination hits heightsunimagined prior to reading him...kind of dave barry/timothy leary/pj
orourke hybrid.....

.there are demons, vampires, lizards, true loves,unfortunate romances,convoluted crashes of humanity upon the unreal....itsalmost indescribable but some of the funniest and well written stuff I veever read....these books cannot be read at the beach or local pool oranywhere else you might be subject to commitment for snarfing,giggling,rolling around like a drunken hyena in hysterics. One suggest blue coyote asa good starting place for his stuff next time you to need to chase thestreaming red numbers and rows upon columns of numbers away for a briefspell....as for life and market lessons there are a few..I l let you findthem for yourselves once the giggles and hiccups have subsided

investment and life wisdom of buffett

No, not that one. I have little use for the pithy phrases of the do as I say not as I do folksly little guru(anyone else find it interesting that the man who prweaches against speculation, against leverage and leaving your circle of competence, ignoring economies because they are unpredictable..is now one of the largest dollar shorts?) The last 3 or 4 weeks around here have been very frustrating as I continue to load up on very cheap stocks to watch them become incredibly cheap stocks…I have little doubt that over time, as has always been so in the past the vadsy majority of my positons will turn out positvel..Im reasonably certain that the basic tenets of valuation and business that I ve used for 15 years did not disappear but none the less, negative marks can be frustrating …..one turns to the OTHER Buffet, the south florida troubadour of the lifestyle I wished I lived on days like this..the clown prince of beach rock and roll has much wisdom on life and markets slipped into his rum laden ditties and I share such discoveriesIt's a strange situation,a wild occupation,Living my life like a song.I have to sit still and remember sometimes that it very much has been like a song..theres been adventure, love stories,heartbreaks,tears in my beer and neon moon nights..but there been plenty of good old boys,barefooting,Navajo rugs and unchained melodies. There have been nights of quietly making noise,searching for a honkey tonk angel..Ive have whiled away many an hour sittin on the dock of the bay contemplating the secrets of the universe and staring at the change of the tide…have cried the tears of a clown on an occasion or two, but spent many more nights dancing in the streets at the midnight hour…got lots of friends in low places and I have traveled an interesting path in the company of good friends and there is much to be said and sung for that( of course it is best that I don’t sing in public..with my voice it would be a great way to make sure it’s a lonely highway).

The chair has often pointed out the connection between music life and markets..they share a rythym..the fade, the crescendo…not only with each other but with life itself. One entire chapter of education of a speculator is devoted to the subject. I venture I guess most of us have music playing in our offices throughout the day, rather it be Vics show tunes or the guns and roses tunes I heard a fellow spec play while trading heavily..music is more than just a backdrop.. it provides the pace, the rhythm, the toe of our actions at times…when doing heavy research I load up the cd player with classical.vivaldi, handle, Mozart..when its time to play I go with buffett, jerry jeff walker,david allan coe or some house rocking blues like stevie ray vaughn or susan tedeschi…for the softer moments we have the collection of sinatra, nora jones and I ve found that miles davis’ kind of blue, some candles and champagne does have a magical sort of effect……music is one of the truly elemental natures of the life well lived..it defines and enhances the lives we live….With all of our running and all of our cunning,If we couldn't laugh, we would all go insane.\Laughter makes it all better..this has been said by philosophers, poets, clowns, drunks and pontificators over the years..(one of my favorites being the old irish proverb…A good laugh and a long sleep are the best cures in the doctor's book. Of course this brings up another favorite cure for a bad day..the sacred afternoon nap..with cnbc or cnn droning n the background..or best of all an absolutely meaningless Saturday afternoon baseball game on a rainy day…one of life’s better cures)this does not however make it any less true.A good joke well told, a carl hiassan,Lawrence shames or christopher moore novel, a phone call from Hillman or crossman wirth their latest cockeyed adventure…chases away any monetary bad feelings or self pity jamborees…a half hour of jeff foxworthy or robin Williams works better upon the psyche than years of therapy and mountains of prozac….as it has been pointed out there no point taking life too seriously..no one gets out of here alive….

Read dozens of books about heroes and crooks,
And I've learned much from both of their styles

.My sister and I have developed the habit of late of getting together with some mutual friends on Thursday evenings for dinner and drinks at some of the local dock joints….an evening of friends, food, music a few beers and just staying in touch with each other…last night I was the last to arrive and a s I grabbed my frosty adult malted beverage I told mary not to let me forget that I had a bag o books in the car for her…the gathering was a little taken aback by the concept of a bag of books changing hands and mary made the comment that if she couldn’t read, she didn’t think she want to live…the tv generation assembled with us was in a state of disbelief but I ll take the liberty of seconding that remark. Books are a ,if not the , central part of my life. Whatever else my mom did or didn’t do for me, she instilled a love of reading in us early. It has, I am convinced, get me alive and reasonably prosperous all my life.I was too big a screw up for college and am pretty much self taught in the ways of life and markets.Books have taught me, inspired me, consoled me,provoked me and given me access to worlds and dreams I never thought possible. To be able to share the thoughts and minds of the worlds greatest thinkers, to wrap my mind around the writings of a feynman, an Einstein and gain some limited knowledge of the world, to learn markets from niederhoffer,graham(sorry vic) Whitman, altman, and other giants of the industry..to experience the soaring words of Shakespeare, the melancholy sensuality of yeats, the depraved, satirical writings of wilde, the life affirming macho of hemingway…learn seduction from casanova, adventuring from l’amour, to say nothing of the escapism writings of john d macdonald, Robert Parker,carl hiaasen, charles bukowski’s alcohol and testosterone soaked tales of depravity and redemption..or lack thereof. Without books I would be nothing..another never was full of dusty dreams and empty of heart and
mind.Take my TV, my dvd player, take the videos and move theatres. Leave me the books, my mind and my imagination and I will take the words beyond anything Technicolor could have ever produced..I shudder to think of a life without books

I ate the last mango in Paris
Took the last plane out of Saigon
Took the first fast boat to China
And Jimmy there's still so much to be done

Okay I ve never been to Paris and not really a big fan of china or slow boats. But there have already been many adventures and there are still many more to look forward to experiencing. There is much left to do, to see, to experience, whether Im 43 or 84, there will be friends to meet, wine to drink, hills to climb, sunsets to watch, places I haven’t been and places I want to go to again.Sometimes after a bad day at the trading desk we tend to forget that most of the world would love to live like we do. The poorest among us earns more than 95% of the population. We can but the books, the music we want, take trips to visit fellow specs, exchange thoughts and ideas with one of the greatest collection of minds I ve ever come across. No matter how bad the day, or nerve grinding the draw down, there still going to be checkers games with vic(if I can handle the embarrassment..he kills me quickly every time),beers with fred at some little Chicago dive( as well as the memories of somehow ending up in a skin head bar at midnight in louisville when we were supposed to be meeting the voodoo prof),horse racing with Depew,chasing bbq dreams with the prof…theres beaches I haven’t lied on,oceans I have not swum in and at the same time there are memories of all the places Ive been and things I ve already done…there has been much adventure and there will be more…in the meantime there have been bad days before..I ve had worse drawdowns and as long as I ve tested it, counted it and trust my research and instincts, the market will rally again at some point, the sun will shine again..until then it behooves one to keep in mind that there is , in fact, still so much to be done.

I'm looking for a smart woman in a real short skirt

Oops…the tricky one.for me anyway. WOMEN.Very much a love hate relationship here..I hate to love them but as yet have not figured out a way too stop. As my goof friend mike ott is fond of quoting me as saying, if I could take my mind of them for more than a minute or two I d be rich as god and bored as hell.Man, I ve got ex wives, ex girlfriends, current girlfriend and contenders for next…its enough to drive a man crazy.A pretty girl walking by can stop conversations and drive all rational thought out of my mind. I don’t understand them at all, and they don’t seem to understand me. Forget mars and venus, some days I don’t think we re even playing in the same galaxy.It bothers me no end that my beautiful, wonderful daughter has grown up to be one of THEM. Women and romance will drive you to the highest highs and the lowest lows.They can make the stars brighter in the heavens and the pillow wet with tears. I ve foresworn the romantic side of life..at least once a week in fact .But showed me well turned ankle and a shy little smile and I’m right back in the game. Infuriating unreasonable creatures, bane of my very existence but Oh god what a dreary world without them. The explosion of love and passion between a man and a woman is perhaps the greatest gift heaven has given us(Goethe described it a poem thus: When the calm enfolds the love nights/a feeling from the unknown steals over you/while the tranquil candle burns/you remain no longer caught/in the prenumbral gloom/you are stirred and new, you desire/to soar to heights creativity) and I would like to find all of that at some point in this lifetime…until then of course, the search, the frustration and the alimony payments continue

In one ear and out the other
Don't you get criss-crossed
I recommend you try a little
Mental floss

Necessary part of life that, as wrapped up in researching,counting trading we all get from time to time, we forget about. In times of stress and duress it is even more critical that our brains are given a chance to relax, to clear, to chase away the clutter and n one has accumulated. Play tennis as the chair is so fond of doing when the markets get too noisy and fitful. Go to a baseball game and lose yourself in the green grass blue skies and poetic precision of the game( unless you re a mets fan and then hopefully you suffer teeth gnashing agony as you game is rained out by a violent thunderstorm with your team trailing by 1 and the bases loaded with no outs…hopes dashed as cruelly as you dashed those of we good,honest and pure Baltimorons in 1969),go to a blues bar and listen to the crashing guitars and gravelly voices chase yours away, read a few travis mcgee books and get lost in south florida ,Plymouth gin,well built broads and a life speculator of the finest kind.Take your kids fishing and delight in the sounds of their laughter.Sit in on a symphony performance and let the music roll over you. Whatever you particular relaxation and escape vice..a walk on the beach, a glass of wine with your partner/spouse as the sunsets, a great book, a trashy novel, a good game of tennis or an afternoon in the stadium, indulge in it from time to time. Clear the mind, relax the spirit and the ideas flow anew, with renewed concentration and resolve.Maybe it's all too simpleFor our brains to figure it outWhat if the hokey pokeyIs all it really is aboutI don’t know what its all about. Neither I suspect do any of us. It’s a question that can only be answered at the very end and you re not allowed enough time in the brief flash to share the answer. So be it. That’s part of the joy of living for each of us, to discover the meaning of it al as we go along. Perhaps there is no meaning and there is just now, just us, our friends, our families, our books, our music, our passions and desires,…that’s not really so bad if that’s how it turns
out.

I don’t have all the answers but I know a few things
1. next to our children and our spouses(okay..your spouses..mine don’t exactly fit the friend mold), our friends are the source of much that is right about life.Shared knowledge. Experiences, companionship. Adventures enjoyed with great friends are all the more meaningful, I have been blessed with more than my fair share and I guard them jealously..interstingly many of my closest friends come from this list.
2. markets fluctuate. I trade from a different perspective than most here, with a much longer time horizon.There will be drawdowns, bad days, bad beats, busted flushes, broken deals and assorted heartaches in this business. However, the ownership of stocks at low prices relative to valuation has always worked out over time in the past..time , while an ally, can be frustrating..Im pretty sure time is female.
3. Its an adventure. There is great music, great books and great trades still to come for all of us..especially I think the majority of those on the spec list who by their presence are engaged in the chase for profits, books music and of course great bbq.On our worst of days we need to keep in mind that we live better than most in the world will ever be able to, and even if we should by some unfortunate occurrence tap out, we can get up, go to work and have a good shot at getting it all back.
4. Life was just a tire swing.
Jambalaya's still the best song that I can sing.
Blackberry pickin', eatin' fried chicken,
And I finally learned a lot about pain,
'cause life is just a tire swing

Tuesday, June 14, 2005

fun with value line

In addition to my life long obsession with the 3 b’s(books, broads and booze),I am also hopelessly addicted to the value line research service and am constantly looking for ways to use the vast amounts of information provided to improve my investing and even trading results. Take away my quote machine and computer but hands off the value line. I t is, hands down, the finest research service available to investors.

Whilst wiling away the hours on the beach last week, enjoying the sun, surf, sand and bevy of barely dressed shapely adorables parading at lands edge, I spent a lot of time reviewing approaches and methods of investing, always looking for the edge that provides superior returns. I developed several ideas that were scribbled on post its and bought home to test out. As I am always surprised when my tiny brain produces something that works, I was gratified to find that several methods appear to over results superior to the mkt as a whole. I share them now in hopes of ideas, comments and criticism.

First is a classic value+yield approach that has been talked up by authors such as O Higgins, shaugnessy and even our own senator. Looking from 1986 though the end of 2004, I screened for stocks that have a return on total capital of at least 8%, A dividend yield of at least 3% and a price to book value of less than two.In addition to avoid deeply troubled companies we only selected stocks ranked 1,2 or 3 from the VL service in hopes of avoiding the dividend slashing book writing off disasters frequently found among 4 and 5 ranked stocks. It finds solid stocks, earning decent returns and paying out cash to shareholders that have not made huge runs in price. Simple conservative stuff, and it delivers simple conservative returns that do in fact beat the market handily..an average of 16% a year over the 18-year period versus the markets 12. More importantly it only has 2 losing years in 18, with the max year over year loss being just 8% along with fairly shallow drawdowns intra-year. By the way, I rebalanced once a quarter in all the tests.

In the second test I look at a classic value screen stocks selling below book value. One of the biggest problems with stocks that sell below book is that many of them are deeply flawed, unprofitable companies with no hope of recovery. To try and eliminate some of this, I added the criteria of selecting only those companies who earned at least 8% on net worth. Again we find market beating returns of 17% a year over 18 years to the markets 12.Deeper draw downs and more overall losing years here, so dropping the dividend requirement and buying deeper asset discounts hardly seems worth the extra percentage point.

Next, for comparative purpose I wanted to look at “growth” stocks, a bit far afield from my usual value bent. But first to decide on a true definition of growth. I wanted to avoid the pure momentum stocks that are so often confused with growth stocks.I also felt that stocks with managed earning ala the west Virginians company or the enron types. I looked for companies where not only were reported earnings growing rapidly..At least 20% annually over the past 5 years, but the earnings were reinvested in the enterprise successfully producing book value growth of at least the same over the time frame. To my mind this showed that not only was the business growing but also profits were being used to improve the corporation and were “real”, not just accounting mirages or temporary. To further insure that these were true growth stocks, only those ranked 1 or better by the value line service were included. And the results are..Drum roll please…it smokes almost everything else I ve ever looked at. 21% compounded over 18 years versus the markets 12. For comparison the entire list of 1 ranked stocks averaged 17..Not bad but 20% less than those who grew their company as fast as their earnings? This strategy beats the market in 15 of the last 18 years. As a value guy I checked to see if screening further by pe ratio helped improve returns, In fact, it degraded them horrible if you put an upper pe limit on the list.

There it is. MELVIN SAYS GROWTH BEATS VALUE. This akin to Darwin cavorting with adam and eve, abelson being bullish, taleb selling premium,buffet finally confesses to being a short term trader.

Uh..not quite. Performing even better than that were stocks that met multiple criteria. Less than 1.5 times book, pe less than 12,debt less than 50% of capital, earnings over past 5 years of at least 5% and projected earnings growth of at least 5%. What we are looking for here are sound companies, good solid balance sheets, growing at some rate equal to or better than the underlying economy. We pick up two types of companies for the most part. Sound business hit by what the chair calls a one-off event, earning miss etc that have plunged, or super cyclicals entering the rapid growth phase that causes pes to contract. This year for instance it would have had you long homebuilders and energy companies for the most part.

REWRITE: MELVIN SAY THERE IS NO DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GROWTH AND VALUE. In the end there is only growth, growth bought at a low right price and momentum.

The only better performing screen was one I have talked about at length in years past. Value Line 1 and 2 ranked stocks priced below 10. This thing rocks. It is the rocket ship of investing strategies producing an eye popping 25% annualized. HOWEVER, it has draw downs and loss years that might make the baseball maven or the late lamented mr e have sleepless nights.40 and 50% drawdowns are not only not unusual..They are the norm. This screen catches small cap stocks that value line has affirmed are starting to turn the corner. They are mostly unprofitable and are considered turnarounds. Removing loss companies from the list reduces returns to market level without decreasing risk in any measurable manner. If one forms a strong opinion that small cap growth is about to rebound however, this list of stocks explodes into the stratosphere and has several 80% plus years in the past 18.

I view screens such as this as a starting point and have never been able to just buy the list blindly, preferring as chris browne of tweedy browne once said, act like an insurance company..underwrite by the numbers(run the screen) and then investigate(look for insider activity,read the reports).However, if one could develop reasonably reliable market entry and exit strategies for,growth,yield and small cap, they can be a powerful starting place.

Wednesday, May 25, 2005

ace-king

I have lost more money to ace-king and blonde hair than anything else in this life.

As soon as the words slipped out of my mouth while indulging in a gin and tonic with a splash of roses discussion of markets and life with a poker playing options guru from the west coast I knew I d uttered a line for the ages, a worthwhile epitaph perhaps for one who has lived the speculative life. Ace-King, the big slick in poker parlance, considered one of the most powerful starting hands. After all, you have a 32% chance of pairing one of the top cards. All the poker books encourage you to bet and bet big when holding big slick…but examine for a minute that there is a 68% chance you wont pair up either card, a 5% chance that someone else at the table has been dealt a pair and has a 10% chance of flopping a third for a set, beating either of your big pairs. Anyone with an over card suited, connected opening hand is in a horse race with you for the pot. If you find yourself heads up against a pair or connectors the pot could be enormous. You have a 29% chance of winning an enormous stack of chips..and a 70%chance of losing one. Know when to hold em, know when to fold em is one of the truest poker maxims ever, and it holds even truer for markets. We have all seen trading systems that have 60,even 70% winners. Excellent odds, and over time should generate enough profits to truly afford all your bad habits and raise your vices to art forms. But bear in mind that the 30% losers can occur in ruinous streaks, that close attention must be made to the $ amount of winners versus losers as a shift here can eliminate your edge and of course the ever changing cycles of the market. Ace-King. A high probability trade in the nazz. Bet it all? What’s the other guy holding? What earnings reports are due from a nazz 100 stocks that can turn your statistical theory into mush?

As for the blonde? Family and friends have told me that from now on I must date, chase and romance only redheads and brunettes for down that path there be monsters. The seductive lure of the long legged girl with flowing golden tresses, the one decision growth stock, the breakout to new highs, the ensuing breathless moments of hope overriding common sense, the wallet emptying crash to earth. We've all been there. To continue to chase momentum or buy 9 dollar cosmos for the Barbie in the bar (you know why the Divorced Barbie is the most expensive of all dolls? She comes with all Kens stuff) is like standing in the alley where you were mugged last night waiting for the guy to show up again. But we’ve all done it. Paid up for stocks that looked to be immortal to watch them do an Icarus. Bought stocks trading at half of book value ignoring the massive leverage on the balance sheet. Shorted bubbles just to watch them reach double-bubble status. Fluttering eyelashes, long blonde hair and moving average breakouts have ruined more poor boys than the house of the rising sun.

So how then to approach these markets so fraught with temptation and frustration? The vast amounts of capital injected in the system have taken the steam out of such sure fire money makers as risk arb,convert arb and distressed trading. I confess to not be smart enough to indulge in global macro against the Willowbridges and Soros’ of the world. Right now I continue to find success with traditional valuation measures and adding some twists. I continue to be enamored of the 3 way approach of valuation, technical (a catch phrase here to include all statistical and math oriented ways of measuring the market) and proper uses of options. Buying or selling of options when the underlying is mispriced at times judged favorable for marker movement in the direction of our trade seems to be the ultimate way to trade these markets of ours. Why doesn’t anyone do it? The only one even close to using this approach right now is Ahmet Okumus of Okumus Capital and he has generated impressive returns over the past 10 years. This remains my favorite area of research and anyone interested in joining the project is more than welcome to the party.

For longer term, less aggressive investors, I think that the time honored corner stones of investing…good returns on equity, price to cash flows and dividend yields along with some good old fashioned dividends to be the best approach Some interesting research from the folks at FirstTrust shows that companies with high dividends compared to the over all market, low price to book value and good returns on assets crushes the market since 1990. My own work looking at low price to book and high return on equity beats by a handy percentage since 1986.Incorporating dividends seems to smooth the overall returns and will perhaps provide a better sleep factor.

So, where are we now? In a nutshell, the Fed is worried about inflation, the bond market is worried about a slowing economy and the options market don’t seem to be worried about anything at all. Volatility has slipped right back down into the low end of the range after giving anther great signal by exceeding two standard deviations (also known as exceeded the top bollinger band) on may 13th. Many of the people I hear discussing volatility keep saying we are right back to the mid 90s levels and all is well. I do not buy it. The world geo political situation is much worse now than then, with more opportunities for the black swan to be born .On going difficulties with nuclear implications in both North Korea and Iran, difficulties with Syria,and other potential worldwide hot spots, combined with valuations on the Dow and sp500 being some 50% higher now than then all seem to give me the impression that there is much greater risk. But I didn’t go to the University of Really Smart math guys so perhaps I’m wrong and the world is a safer, more peaceful place and earnings will grow forever and peace and profits will reign forever and ever amen therefore making the continuing selling of volatility an eternal cash machine. Or just maybe the calculators aren’t adjusting for the fact that the enormous amounts of covered call programs and funds have created a pricing aberration and the risk is much greater than it appears.

As for market levels, the stock market as measured by the sp500 appears to be fairly priced in this general area. As long as economic activity picks up and we hit the earnings estimates AND interest rates do not go higher. But wait..The proverbial fly crash lands in the ointment of valuation. It is rare for economic activity to pick up and interest rates to stay the same or go lower.Lookinmg at my charts and funny little math activity book I see a range here of about 1140 to 1210.At 1190 I think we re close to putting in a short term top than bottom. No, I’m not a perma bear but after calling for a short term rally in April, I ll say now that the likely path of least resistance is down. The combination of bond market rally, decent earnings and falling oil prices failed to push the market past the March highs, generating about a 5% gain since the April lows. Im usually early (when of course I’m not just flat out wrong) but I think we go down from here. Not straight down, but down. I am heartened by the fact that everyone with even the slightest counting knowledge has happily pointed out that when the NASDAQ goes up 8 days in a row it is usually higher. Some 68% of the time a week, one month and 3 months later. Suddenly I’m at a poker table, sitting next to a blonde staring at me from under a veronica lake hairdo urging me "go for it, big boy”. I look in my hand and find…..Ace- King, the big slick of my dreams..or possibly nightmares.

In my personal portfolio, I like sebl, hele, bac, atml, cmos, dtv, tmas on the long side while remaining short erts, fisv, yhoo, hot. Im looking to add shorts on rallies and may even join the Chicago wunderkind and bet against the homebuilders. I mean just who the hell is buying all these houses? As we price the low end, first time buy out of the market, the opportunity for the move-up ponzi scheme we ve been seeing will falter. We saw this exact scenario play out in the 80s. I t takes action on the low end to sustain the rally but the rally itself takes the low end out of the game. Forget people buying rental real estate. It is no longer possible to take in enough rental income to cover even half the mortgage in most urban areas. Again,Im probably early but when it unravels, it will happen quickly.

Random thoughts:

Carl Icahn, who so kindly bbqed so many of us with the bait and switch on KMG has taken a good size position, is sebl. The software company is under priced and may well be takeover bait.

The economy cannot recover without a substantial rally in semiconductors. It’s the only area of the market I consider ultra-cheap. The pricing therein seems to support the argument from the bond traders that the economy is not all its cracked up to be.

.They have to buy the dollar. The Asians need our trade. Without it they collapse. They WILL continue to buy treasuries. This time however they seem to have learned their lesson about buying US assets when the dollar weakens. They learned from Rockefeller center after all.

The damage isn’t over for convert arb. It might make sense to take the opposite side here..ie long shares of companies that have converts and high short interest.

The Tiki bar is Open.

Friday, April 15, 2005

Too bullish too soon.Especially with ibm..big blue has left me blue this week as the may 90 calls have gone from dep out of the money to impossibly deep out of the money.Fortunately this weeks decline in starbucks allowed me to close that position at more than enough profit to compensate for dancing with dinosaurs .closed the pfizer clalls for a decent gain this morning as well.SBux is one I wouldn't moind shorting again in the mid 50's if bear sterns upgrade can push the shares that high.A 40 multiple for a 5% grower is just too tempting a target.

Earnings hopes seem to be turning to earnings fears this week. The miss by harley davidson sent a clear message to the market that the days of counting on the so called consistent growers at premium valuations are coming to an end. The numbers just don't massage the way they did in the good ol days. Harley was always seen as somewhat insulated from economic swings by the consistent demand for the throaty roar of the open road. Now, it seems that they have shipped many more bikes to dealers than were ever registered by new owners and the only throaty roar is from growth funds puking upthe shares.Citicorp and Ge both exceeded estimates but the list of misses to the downside is getting longer by the hour.SUNW,RFMD,MAT,AVY and GWW are all off bif today on earnings misses. You thought march madness was interesting. Trying to build a bracket of earnings winners is getting more difficult all the time as the traditional 1 and 2 seed growth stocks fail to advance.

In spite of this, for the short term I m still bullish. The twin declines in oil and interest rates should give us a little upwards push.The SP500 is 2 standard devaitions below its average, and the vix and vxo are both above their 2 std-dev range. Past occurences of this have been infrequent and very bullish over the next trading month.I dont think it wll be a spectacular rally but we should recover some of the ground lost since early march.I think that 1195-1200 on the sp500 and 2020-30 on the NAZZ composite will be the top of any short term rally in here and would have to revaluate the picture if we reach those levels. Volatilty has been climbing as earnings disappointments build and I think there is finally enough fear to launch a decent little rally. The longer term path of least resitance is still down, and I ll probably be looking to restablish some more shorts as we near the top of my ranges.

Semiconductors, drugs and media remain my hunting growund for new long ideas.The continued decline in shares of ATML has increased my appetite for the shares and I have been aggressively adding to positions. Their smart card business is growing at a 40%+ clip annualy and with the mastercard paypass ramping upthis quarter, this will continue if not acclerate.In the microcontroller business the book to bill is finally over 1. There is revenue growth across all areas of the comopany and margins improved by over 5% last year. On there 4th quarter conference call in feb they anticipated further margin improvement starting in the second half of the year. Wells Fargo has a 12 month target price of 5.25 and I think Im right there with them. The long term trends in hand held consumer electronics and smart cards are very much in ATML's favor.ATMl sels for 70% of sales,right around book and only two times net current assets.Its a buy it and forget it stock that should provide outsize gains when the semi conductor sector picks up.In media and entertainment DTV remains a favorite...rather than walk you through the whole analysis, I ll just reference the barrons article last week as outling the valuation and prospects for the satelllite tv leader. Drugs have moved up in recent days and I would hold longs but not add..as I mention I exited the more leveraged pfe calls this morning. I also like the HELE JAN 25-30 call spread for the more aggressive types.HELE earns a 22% ROE and trades at 12 times.Street estimates are 2.35 this year and 2.90 in fiscal 06 with a price target of 20.With the stock at almost 28, the debit of 2.0 is all intinsic value with a discount of time premium for a good chance to double by January 06.

Since coming back from a fuddruckers lunch I find that the market has taken an enormous dump again, volatility has jumped 3% measured by the vix.Semiconductors are getting crushed with all the tech etfs down another 2-4% on the day.The NASDAQ new low list bears an eerie resemblance to my portfolios. should have had a beer or 12 with that burger.Close eyes,buy puke..just another day in the stock market.

Wednesday, April 13, 2005

trip report

Its spring in Lexington and the town braces for the annual invasion of horse racing aficionados, the gamblers and socialites alike descending on the town as once again the harbinger of brighter times ahead comes around on the annual calendar. Keeneland is open for business and the best horses; trainers and jockeys bring some of the worlds finest horse racing to this bucolic setting in the rolling horse lands of Kentucky. And from Chicago,new york,Maryland,ohio and other fine locations across the nation, the spec list after dark crew joins the throngs headed for northern Kentucky to partake in the spectacle.

It’s a quiet morning on the deck at the woodford reserve distillery. The air carries the scent of newly emerged spring fauna and sour mash. Those who have taken the tour mingle with new arrivals and all head for the picnic on the deck, a fine lunch amid the spectacular setting of this beautiful place tucked in a valley of rolling Kentucky bluegrass. One by one the men and women of the spec list after-dark crew arrive.oh,lets be honest, the men of the spec list after dark crew. With the exception of the effervescent editor form Chicago the women come along to make sure that the excessive amounts of testosterone and whiskey fueled ninnies don’t do anything too terribly stupid….the voodoo prof form Deltaville by way of Cincinnati, accompanied as always by the enigmatic and vibrantly delightful E; the king of patterns from queens, along with his sister the fashion princess of bloomies; Chesapeake Slim,sporting his usual half a hangover and subdued opinions; the cynical grail seeker from chi-town(as long as the grail is a copy of barrons and financial times every Saturday no matter how remote a locale we find ourselves in) with a new addition the delightful and oh so lovely charitable derivative, the tent owning trader also from Chicago with the stunningly beautiful and gracious new wife; the listmaster and the tsarina with their court including the queen mom and head page, and of course the handicapping horsemaster of Richmond Virginia and his bride the market mistress(market in question being of the farmers variety in Richmond).Most had arrived just this morning. The handicapper and slim had of course arrived the night before and had wide Guinness fueled discussion on matters vital to the world as we know it whilst listening to a surprisingly good Beatles cover band in one of Lexington’s finest little spots along main street.The handicapper, of course had the sense to go home. Slim, possessing no vehicle was waiting for the cynic and his consort to arrive to town and carry him back to the palace of la Quinta. Alone, in an unfamiliar town, there was of course only one course of action available..Switch from Guinness to bushmills (Lexington at is core is very Irish) and begin striking up conversations with all the shapely adorables in attendance. It was during such an encounter with a beautiful and buxom yet amazingly foul-mouthed coed ( little surprise our slim was in love and had already begun to think of her as his next ex-wife) when the charitable derivative arrived to the rescue. Whose rescue exactly, we will never know.

The new day dawn arrived brining with a day at the track. The band of erstwhile specs arrived at keenelands grandstands on a beautiful spring day, temperatures in the 70s, the sun shone brightly and the track ran fast. Conversations ran from sector rotation in sp 500 groups, volatility trades horse racing systems(in this the second year of keeneland adventures, remains the pattern kings “Bet the Pink Horse”, far outpacing all other attempts to game the ponies).Keeneland is a social event and the women wore birhgt dresses and amzingly stylish headgear, the flowers were starting to bloom in the infield, the crowd was excited and in the highest of spirits on this the seconf day of racing.We talked mingled,enjoyed cold beers and small bets and caught up on the past several months.Several of us came out ahead on the day, no one was foolish enough to bet too much with no edge and the one with an edge was smart enough to bet only the race where the edge was clear and walked outas always) a big winner on the day,enough Im sure to keep in pints of guiness and snappy ties for some small time to come.Now, if he had just answered our desperate calls to the clubhouse before the race……

Now the mad dash across Lexington to what we thought was the voodoo profs newest culinary find. Little did we know he and e had simply asked a track employee where a good place to eat was located in their fair town. Naturally they sent us 45 minutes across town to a beer and burger joint someone in their family doubtlessly owned.The Shamrock was a fine example of the genre however and while it was not up to the very high standards the prof has set in the past..It was food and the beer was cold. While not selected by zagats, we do give a three on the suggested by overweight toothless racetrack trash sweeper scale.

Then back to that shrine of horseracing, gamblers and Irishmen, McCarthy’s in downtown Lexington .A table in the back, a gorgeous spring evening, adult libations to spare and long conversations.Perfect. Someone really needs to start taping the first couple of hours of these gatherings as much brilliance is shared. Listening to Kevin Depew talk about the similarities between horse betting and trading is worth the cost of the trip in and of itself. Add the years of experience of a crossman,the sharp insight of mcnabb, the in-depth technology and trading genius of a goldcamp along with other combined great minds gathered there and much can be learned. Markets,racing,books,history,math,the list of subjects covered is vast.After the first couple of hours, theory gives way to war stories,lost loves and bad adventures and these bits of conversation are perhaps best never written anywhere for the sake of all concerned. It as at the turning point in the evening that I feel most sorry for the wives and girlfriends. They had believed they were in the company of poets and philosophers and to their horror find that they are, in fact, in the midst of a gathering of drunken degenerate gamblers. But they are good sports and allow us our fun, conversation and companionship with the bemused expressions of mothers riding herd on naughty little boys.

These gatherings have gone on since the second spec party when the afterdarkers were founded quite accidentally over a bottle of scotch and market talk in a hotel room late on Friday night in Weston Connecticut. The original group was small… ott, melvin, crossman,van giessen and a few select others who are no longer around. The gatherings have produced numerous modern legends, tales of skin head karaoke bars, purple pt cruisers,5th avenue Irish bars, out of the way bbq shacks, confused detours through the Bronx, sawdust dock bars,rush street snowstorms,poker games in the back of bars and more that we ve probably forgotten. We have feasted on seafood in md,backyard bbq in Chicago,bourbon and steaks in Kentucky.Much has been learned by all, fast and long-term friendships have been formed, trades found, opportunities shared and stories enjoyed. There is no doubt in my mind that the chair, while giving a slight frown of disapproval at the gambling and gamboling that goes on at these gatherings has to take some level in delight that his single idea of the spec list, an almost random thought at that, has taken a diverse group and created a tight circle of friends who have come to not only enjoy each others companies but to rely on each other as only the best of friends can do.As Mr Crossman soeloquently puts it, nights we ll never remember with friends we ll never forget. At each such gathering the chair must be and is toasted as the unknowing and unintended creator of the after dark group.

There are no criteria for membership other than declaring yourself to be a member. A fondness for good scotch, cold beer, and fine food coupled with a deep interest in financial markets does help however. I cannot imagine that to be found totally sober or unable to talk markets would be much fun at our get togethers. It is a diverse group both in geographics and interest. We have stock guys ,bond girls,options traders, futures speculators, quants(,looks around three times) chartists growth guys, value guys, traders, writers, editors, jocks, chain smokers. It grew out of and of course, is a part of the spec list. We all met through the list and are still on it. Some of us for many years now. There are more gatherings in the future, with blues sounding across the bay,angels flying in Chicago,baseball stadiums to be visited, and of course the annual grad gathering of specs in NYC. Bring your best off color stories, a bottle of your best booze and your knowledge along to the next one and join a great circle of friends.

Some observations from the weekend

Flying from Maryland, I had a layover in cinnci. I flew a regional jet out which flies lower than larger airplanes and was below the cloud cover most of the way. From this unique viewpoint I observed several interesting facts. First, in spite of claims to the contrary baseball is still the national pastime. Virtually every small town, village, larger city or suburban gathering of homes has at least one baseball diamond, clearly identifiable from 20,000 feet. Americans love their little league,legion ball and rec league softball. In contrast there not anywhere near as many football fields or soccer pitches outside the larger towns.

Second, the American economic spirit is in fine shape. The trucks are still rolling from the farms to the towns and cities, factories are manufacturing and commerce is occurring throughout the heartland.farmers are plowing and planting, railroads are running and people are working. It cannot be measured by fed stats but the heart of American enterprise is the desire of its people to better their lives and the lives of those they love. From 20,000 feet on a clear day, this is very visible. The second leg into Lexington spotlighted the fact that northern Kentucky, particularly Lexington as one of the most beautiful in the country.

To gain a better understanding of emotions and markets,spend a day at the racetracks. Enjoy the races if you wish, but concentrate on watching the people.Its all there. Hopes, dreams, charts, tips,touts,deceptions,the small winner who gets overconfident and becomes a big loser, the big loser who swings for the fences to try to get even, the over leveraged and undercapitalized,rthe pros, the amateurs, the big scores and big blowups all playing out in real time along the rail. In EdSpec Vic talked off taking trainees to the track to observe their behavior. I would suggest that this is good advice and a great place to study human nature and emotions as applied to finance.
Racetrack hotdogs are ALMOST as good as ballpark dogs.
An irish bar and a group of good friends is one of the most delightful ways to spend an evening.
The best books you ll ever read are those suggested by friends.
The orioles can stil beat the Yankees. The Devil Rays and Tigers are another story.There is a powerful motivational lesson in this.

Finding a fellow hunter thompson fan, one who actually read his works before he blew the back of his head into a chivas regal glass is a rare and interestinf experience. Finding one who is also a spec is a three standard deviation event.

Ideas shared multiply.A group of specs sitting around sharing thoughts,philosophies and market approaches is a powerful event and all can learn much from each other.

wednesday

just bought ibm may 90 calls..just looking for a quick bounce here,nothing huge but vol is picking up nicely....a little bounce up withincreased vol could net a quick 50% return in these...also..keep positions fairly small in this one, its much,much shorterthan I usually trade.most of my otm option positions are july, augustand sepright now, thanks ,mostly to my short positions, Im up 23% ytd tradingthis way. as of todays close....the tmas started moving today jumping as high as .17...another move in vix like we saw today will be a timeto look to get long for the short term.....

Monday, April 11, 2005

recent stuff I forgot to save

Having spent much of the weekend either in a car doing the turnpike shuffle..There is something about the barren wasteland of the New Jersey turnpike that is good for contemplative thinking..or waiting in Penn station Newark observing the by product of humanity whilst waiting for the listmaster to figure out the intricacies of the train schedule from Manhattan, I got a lot thinking and observing accomplished..for no particular reason I shares those thoughts…. There is something about a wedding that instills hope for humanity even in a cynical multiple divorced(but Im Not bitter) individual like myself. To see two people willing to risk the commitment to each other in what is an obvious celebration of hope over statistics causes on to realize exactly how optimistic a species we are… Speaking of weddings, what the spec list has put together let no man put asunder.For the wedding of a young man from Ohio to a girl from new jersey, there were no specs in attendance from Chicago,new york, Cincinnati and Maryland.There were as many specs making the trip to the wonderland of jersey as there were old college friends of the groom.The 4 of us would never have met had the chair not decide to create a franklonian forum for the exchange of idea and bbq recipes.Parts of the weekend felt like a small spec gathering..if,of course, it wasn't for the ceremony with all the flowers and blushing bridesmaids inserted in the middle……an options trader, a spread trader,pattern trader,trading software guy, and of course the token value guy, friendships born out of one mans desire to share his knowledge and experience…hats off to victor for creating a platform that has led to so many fast and long lasting friendships…. Upon arriving home, I witnessed the terps of Maryland rising above once again to almost knock off #2 North Carolina..this after beating their feared and dreaded nemesis duke twice this year.IN spite of these accomplishments for most of the year the team has played below expectations,losing to teams they should have beaten by 20 points or more.Why is that teams..or even traders..can rise above for the biggest challenges,Beat or scare the best teams in the country,,,trade though a market meltdown(or up),racking up gains and protecting capitol, but lose to the little sister of the poor, dropping large numbers on range bound days,selling bottoms and buying tops during calmer times?.What is the motivational force that causes us to rise above and how do we harness it for every day use? How does one gain the same focus and intensity that allows us to perform at our highest and best levels and bring it bear every game and every day? I have yet to find a problem that a good car, some open road, two packs of smokes and a big cup of 7-11 coffee(although the esteemed mr crossman insists that dunkin donuts is the better brand) and some stevie ray Vaughn cranked on the stereo cannot take the edge off the condition. It seems that there is cleansing about blasting down the road that makes the problems less serious that they seemed while ruminating behind a desk or in a sleep deprived apartment setting…loud music, open road seem to be the essence of affirming that life is still good.problems can always be overcome and there is something bright around the next bend..or if you re on the turnpike,at the next exit….rains end,markets turn, love returns, friends endure and the road truly does go on forever.At such times, smoking along, stevie ray cranking it out as only he could, the radar detector showing clear and no traffic around, it doesn't matter if value beats growth, if options should be bought or sold,how many ex-wives one is dragging about in albatross fashion through life,what matters is that the world is full of possibilities and opportunities, there's a solution for every problem, that the style that's suits you is the one that works,theres still music and open roads ahead in all areas of life….pass the keys,gas it up.Life goes on..and that's a good thing….. If one ever gets a chance to sit between james goldcamp and ryan Carlson while they discuss their travels around the globe..drop whatever you are doing and go.they sights and adventures of these two gentleman make for fascinating listening..kind of a natural geographic over cocktails In closing congratulations to the newly hitched Mr and Mrs Jason Thompson.Jason is a spec lister for some time now and it was great to see the obvious joy and pleasure they shared for each other…They were married Saturday in a stunningly beautiful ceremony.It was pleasure and honor to share the moment with them and wish them all happiness

feb 18

ah..come on..you knew I was going to.... .driving into work this morning, a hawkish wind blowing off the bay, Im surprised to see swirling, a brief nasty flurry of the sodden shitty white stuff to remind me that its still winter.... as I light a cigarette, cracking the window slightly, I feel the wet, cold damp slap against my slightly hungover self and shudder in my over coat, cranking both the heat and eric claptons cover of judgement day to fight off the frosty blast....I drive on contemplating the mysteries that have plagued mankind since the very dawn of time itself..important crap like whether mercks announcement will make my pfizer calls rise this am, how the stunning girl I saw last night..and I do mean stunning even with my scotch aided vision(which has been known to lead to some most unfortunate conclusions in times past, creating the need for an important personal axiom..you can drink em pretty but you cant drink em thin) could be seen in public with yo-boy imitator with the scruffy goatee, steelers jersey(in a md sports/redneck joint no less..ahh the humanity!!!!!!!!) and more earring's in one ear than my two wives owned between them..yes,driving along thinking deep thoughts about critical issues, earth shattering, life changing considerations like how soon after the market closes should I leave for happy hour,what a certain chicago lady lawyers eyes might look like by candlelight,what type of wedding gift might make jasons intended forget that crossman and I kept him out all night...when the most momentous words,4 words that cause my soul to soar, renewing all hope for mankind.... PITCHERS AND CATCHERS REPORT I go in an instant from a smoky car, transported from a mildly hungover adult male with a huge options position and no immediate prospects for an emotionally satisfactory personal life to an 8 year old boy...in moms back yard on a hot summers ever,my suit and tie is replaced by the dirtiest pair of dungarees(yeah I know they call em blue jeans know but trust me on my moms clothing budget in those days, these were dungarees), torn at the knee, a little blood stained because when I slide into second..and I always slide into second whether its a home game and second base is the corner stake of moms tomato patch or an away game and its a garbage can lid billy madisons mom is going to yell at us for stealing out of the kitchen again....it tends to remove the scab from yesterdays game...I can smell the sweaty leather of that old glove, a spalding brooks robinson..the ONLY acceptable version in the maryland of my youth unless it was the boog powell firsties mitt but if you wore that you better be able to clear the center field fence..also knowns as mrs greens shit pile producing beagles dog house.otherwise it was brooks.the glove is well worn,broken in by months of constant use..used to field those razor hot grounders, track down the soaring flyballs up against the wall,or even sometimes over the hood of the car to prevent not only a run scoring double but a true broken windshield, some bodies going to have a very sore ass if I dont catch this catastrophe....and the bat, the same bat, now a 40 yr old piece of hickory hardened to the consistency of iron , that sits in the corner of my room used only on occasion to beat myself senseless when the thought that I might like to be married again some day crosses my mind, but then, then it was the home run swatting, seeing eye single producing fear of boucher avenue.and later after a good dinner of moms chicken, or perhaps a night of trying to slip my eveil vile liver on my sisters plate so I can slip down to my basement bedroom and hear on my little transistor radio the orioles, bufor,blair,robinson(f),powell,robinson(b),johnson,belnager,etchebarran and hendricks platooning tear up opposing pitchers while mcnally cuellar and dobson rendering visiting batsmen powerless... yeah,yeah I know,overpaid athletes,steroids, corked bats, yadiid,yaddi, yaddi..its not the game of my youth,free agency has ruined the game, moral decay of america etc,etc,etc..screw it, its baseball...bright lights illuminating soft green cathedrals streaked with pure lines of the whitest white outlining the field of dreams,exploding fastballs, plunging curveballs, towering home runs, ninth inning rallies and line drive doubles,,and yes I am acutely aware that many frozen nights lie ahead before summer returns to the northeast, and no doubt there is more snow and even the ACC tournament still to come,pfizers only up .15 and at the moment I am without a current incantation of the one great and true love of my life..but PITCHERS AND CATCHERS REPORT and while all is not quite right with the world, there is hope and baseball ahead.

thoughts of the day

As goeth oil,so goeth stocks, at least for now oil is down,stocks are up and vicey versi. For the past several weks the direction of oil determined the days market action. Today, however we see a breaking of the linkage as the continued bad news out of the us automakers overshadows the drop in crude.Ford shares are down almost 6% on the day as the reduce guidance and their bonds are downgraded yet again.As approach midday we find the mkt off down slightly and well of the highs of the day. Which factor determiners the afternoon trading..Bad corporate news or falling oil will make an interesting statement about the markets frame of mind.

At 20 times earnings, the market still feels "heavy" to me with the past of least resistance being down.Indeed since the high put in back in early march the market is off by 4% in the spooz and about 4.5 in the nazz. For the year, the nazz id down a gut dropping 9% or so and continues to lead on the downside.Looking at the backdrop we find that for the short term, sentiment is developing a slightly bullish undertone, suggesting a short bounce in here after recent declines. The NASDAQ in particular is showing very bullish readings in short interest and available cash in margin accounts. Bulls bears is a little more mixed with aaii very bullish and ii neutral but off the very bearish readings seen earlier this year.Price action is hanging on the low side of midrange right now with the sp range being 1160 to 1210, with current reading of 1179.The NASDAQ composite is a little closer to oversold, with my bottom range being 1950-1960 and top being 2040-50,against a current 1994. The 1160 number comes up in several different studies across different time frames and could be a critical point as as i suspect pure technicians will be selling heavily below this price

Volatility remains low..in spite of the general downward trend in prices since early march.It is worth noting however that the vix exceeded the top of its 20 day deviation bands. This was accompanied by 4 down closes and would have put us long at the close of 1172 on march 22.Also worth noting is that if you look at a spread chart of vix relative to sp 500 price levels we are seeing the relationship near the very high levels that spurred longer term corrections. A bounce off the march buy signal could well take us to serious long term overbought conditions in this indicator. The only other time in the last 15 years this spread was this far above its one year average was in 2000.

In my personal account,I remain long volatility with a valuation bias. I am long otm puts on sbux,erts,hot and yhoo while being long otm calls in twtr,dtc,issi and pfe.Both erts and sbux have gone from deeply out of the money to in the money since the positions were established on Feb 2. The original erts position was closed on 3/28 for a 200% gain and I rolled down to a deeper otm strike. The calls are all generally under water to about even at this point. I am also long atml as a play on the long term recovery os semiconductor and tmas as a deep,deep turnaround candidate.

03/30 8:37A (DJ) PRESS RELEASE: TIMCO Aviation Services, Inc. Announces 2004 Results Story 3092 (TMAS, I/TRA, I/TRS, I/XDJGI, N/DJIN, N/DJN, N/DJWB, N/CAC...) GREENSBORO, N.C., March 30 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- TIMCO Aviation Services, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: TMAS) today announced its 2004 results of operations. Revenue for year ended December 31, 2004 was $323.5 million, a 33% increase over the 2003 revenue of $242.5 million. Net income for 2004 was $0.9 million ($0.03 per basic and diluted share), compared to a net loss of $0.3 million ($0.01 per basic and diluted share) for 2003. Net loss from continuing operations in 2004 was $0.7 million compared to $4.3 million in 2003. Net loss from continuing operations during 2004 benefited from a gain on the settlement of a warrant obligation of $0.2 million. Net loss from continuing operations during 2003 benefited from the elimination and reduction in accruals of $2.7 million based on settlements and revised estimates, from the collection of a $0.9 million account receivable that had previously been written off as uncollectible and from tax benefits of $1.0 million resulting from the conclusion of an IRS audit and receipt of federal and state tax refunds. Without these benefits, the net loss from continuing operations for 2004 and 2003 would have been $0.9 million and $8.9 million, respectively. Roy T. Rimmer, Jr., the Company's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, stated: "The ongoing improvement in our operating results, at both the revenue level and at the bottom line, demonstrates that we are on the right course. This strengthening of our operations combined with the enhancement of our capital structure as a result of our recently completed tender offer, will enable TIMCO to be a better business partner with our customers in meeting their aircraft maintenance and modification needs." Gil West, the Company's President and Chief Operating Officer, stated: "Our customers are continuing to look to TIMCO for a larger portion of their MR&O requirements, as evidenced by our 33% year-over-year increase in revenue. Our focus on improving the quality, efficiency and scope of services offered to our customers has been critical in securing this increased business." TIMCO Aviation Services, Inc. is among the world's largest providers of fully integrated aviation maintenance, repair and overhaul (MR&O) services for major commercial airlines, regional air carriers, aircraft leasing companies, government and military units and air cargo carriers. The Company currently operates four MR&O businesses: Triad International Maintenance Corporation (known as TIMCO), which, with its four active locations (Greensboro, NC; Macon, GA; Lake City, FL and Goodyear, AZ), is one of the largest independent providers of heavy aircraft maintenance services in the world and also provides aircraft storage and line maintenance services; Brice Manufacturing and Aircraft Interior Design, which specialize in the manufacture and sale of new aircraft seats and aftermarket parts and in the refurbishment of aircraft interior components; TIMCO Engineered Systems, which provides engineering services both to our MR&O operations and our customers; and TIMCO Engine Center, which refurbishes JT8D engines and performs on-wing repairs for both JT8D and CFM-56 series engines

.Voltility remains too low and we need a rise in vols together with a drop in prices to return to some level of normality inthe relationship of volatility to prices.Valuation does seem to matter as its the high flyers that are getting slapped by incoming black swans and swelling option prices.

Just one knuckleheads opinion.

Tuesday, October 26, 2004

todays model trades

qcom,39 even
apol..66.50

Monday, October 18, 2004

scer mars and venus

Screw mars and venus. As usual the psuedo pundits have the game all wrong. The planets have little or nothing to do with eternal situation.The truth of it is simple..men are stocks. Women are bonds. A simple look at the evidence will prove the correctness of this statement. Stocks represent a claim on the current earnings power of a corporation and the possibility of future earnings as well, but for the most part a stocks price reflects its current situation. What determines a bonds value…sort of depends on what hour of what day of what week during which phase of the lunar cycle doesn’t it?

When we talk about stocks, we talk about earnings, cash flow, assets, book value, current ratios…all fairly straightforward stuff. We have blue chip stocks, like your grandfather, a little stodgy, smelling of old pipe tobacco and mildew, driving safe cars, old fashioned but damned good to have around in a crisis…we have the sold middle class guy, REIT stocks, construction stocks, the countless solid companies that do not ever achieve the spectacular but deliver results over time, we have the flash in the pain guys, the dotcomers with nothing to offer but a song and a flash, the kind you spend 18 years trying to teach your daughter not to date and your clients not to buy…the aggressive merger companies looking to acquire their way to success, the real lounge lizards of the equities world. There are of course, many types of stocks as there are many types of men..domestic stocks, international stocks, growth stocks and value stocks…but one measures the underlying value by the same metrics…independent of outside variables, stock prices care about earnings, assets and future potential of each with the relative importance of the criteria shifting in importance relative to the current operating environment….as men, absent of outside variables care about food, beer and sex with the relative importance of each shifting based on the current operating environment.

Now bonds and women…harken back to older, less interesting days…bonds were the easier safer investments that prudent men held to provide safe, stable returns. Women were objects that prudent men held to bear ones children and keep ones house. Safe, stable objects that were held peaceably for long periods of time. Now, add a free-floating currency and a sexual revolution and the picture begins to cloud a bit. Once can calculate a stocks intrinsic value with a handheld calculator of the simplest variety. With bonds however we must think about things like convexity and duration, things calculated only with a deep understanding of algebra and perhaps even a little physics wouldn’t hurt. There are of course many types of bonds as well..The seemingly safety of a government obligation with its guaranteed payouts…complicated by maddening almost impossible price swings. As Henry Kaufman once pointed out no one can determine the direction of interest rates over a long period of time. Any male walking who claims to understand the thoughts of even this steadiest of types is simply a liar. There’s the girl next door bond, high grade corporates,as with govies usually steady but subject to wild swings based on the movements of rates and rising or falling credit ratings. There’s junk bonds, the wild dance all night in the local bar redneck chick, a type of bond that either delivers beyond your wildest dreams or leaves you hung over in the gutter with the worst hangover of your life, and of course the siren allure of the femme fatale of the bond world, defaulted bonds…all types of bonds and each needing its own special form of higher math to calculate risks ,rewards and values, each with payoffs altered and diluted by a maddening range of possibilities….

The moods, motivation and mental condition of your average man can be learned in less than 10 minutes over a drink. The mood, motivations and mental condition of a woman may never be properly learned as they change constantly on an ever-widening range of conditions. There are two major determinates in valuing a stock. Their current condition vis a vis earnings and assets multiplied by the appropriate multiple. This multiple of course is determined entirely by the behavior of the bond market. There are those who say that men are the captain of their own souls, that more matters in the course of a mans life than a woman. Like wise there are those who claim that stock prices are determined by economic growth. Lovely thoughts both but entirely incorrect over the long run. Growth in GDP has a negative correlation over long periods of time with stock prices. Interest rates however have almost perfect correlation. If rates fall, prices rise.(thanks to the always astute Mr. Crossman for first pointing out the fallacy of gdp,rates and stock prices).It is not a perfect correlation on a day-to-day basis but does hold true over the longer term. Equity markets will occasionally decouple from bond prices and go on a wild ride regardless of rate direction. A man may go to Vegas with his buddies for a month long blow out and never once think of what a woman thinks of his actions…but at the end of a cycle, rising rates will kill a rally, falling rates will stop a decline and when the plane has landed and our hung over hero is home, he will again begin to care about the presence or absence of a woman in his life. The converse however is not true. It is a very rare event that stock prices determine any long term movement in interest rates…Bonds measure a myriad of influences and the buying patterns of a remote Chinese industrialist may well be a bigger factor in the movement than any action of the stock market. Many times we don’t have a clue what drove the bond markets movement until well after the fact. A chance comment by a co-worker may well have a lot more to do with a woman’s mood than the rose you did or didn’t buy her. Extreme movements over the short term in the market..ie crashes..may influence the bond market as appallingly bad behavior may change how a woman’s reaction to you over the course of a few days. In the aftermath however they both go back to measuring innumerable variables before deciding whether to aid or annihilate the equities market. When the bond market changes direction, the direction is changed until new variables enter the equation. When bond prices plunge, they stay plunged. Equity markets plunge and will almost always attempt to rally time and time again before falling further. Many of us making a living trading this almost inevitable attempt to return to glory. A man is never truly over an ex..we carry some trace of each of them with us for all times and there is not a man alive who has not made some variation of the you mean miserable**** you ruined my life, please take me back” 2 am phone call. When a woman decides she is done, after ingesting all the variables and global conditions…the man for all intents and purposes ceases to exist( of course if we had engaged in any spin off activity there will be continual margin calls).

Of course derivative have been introduced to try and measure and lessen the volatility of both markets. This works until it doesn’t. It stops working because stocks are stocks, bonds are bonds. Interestingly the formulas for deriving stock derivative prices include a bond component. Bond derivative models have no equity component. As always, the mood, direction and tone of the equity markets, including all derivatives must include a bond function. It doesn’t work without. Whatever influence equity prices have on economic conditions is but one of many variables on bond derivative structures. Most of complete and total wipeouts in the hedge fund world have been the result of bond derivatives. Many of the colossal mistakes of human history have been the result of a woman’s influence over a man. As of course have many of the achievements. It is not mistake the spectacular equity market records of lynch, Robertson, the lamentable sage, have been recorded during a period of generally declining interest rates.

Mars and Venus? I don’t think so. Stocks and bonds. We complement each other when all is done correctly and it is difficult for one to exist without the other, although there could be a bond market without a stock market but I doubt the reverse is true. Bonds have more influence over stocks than stocks ever will over bonds. Don’t like it? Neither does I. take it up with god. But one has to admit, that having the interest payments hit the ledger help an awful lot when stock prices are falling and don’t hurt even when they re rising…much as good woman can carry man through the worst of times and add in the best…. whereas when bond prices are falling, so are stocks and are little helped and when bond prices are rising, so are stocks. I all assume you can draw your own correlations from the preceding system and excuse me as I have to go buy some bonds…. maybe a nice junk bond with long blonde hair and dancing green eyes this time……