Ive got a luxury sedan,acartons of cigarettes and a radr detector..Im not scared

Im not scared........


Through a series of unfortunate adventures that go beyond even those of the much maligned Lemony Snicket, a very close and long time friend found himself living in what had been intended to be a vacation home in Naples Florida with most of his personal property scattered between new jersey and naples, the most valuable being the car(bmw525I), the boat (Irwin 46 ketch) and the leftover bar inventory (mostly gone now having been left in my custody) were here in Maryland under the tender car of yours truly.As reestablishing himself in a gainful occupation until the notes from the sale of his bar in Annapolis begin later this year kept him unable to obtain sufficient time to get his car back down to florida and his live in girlfriend was threatening bodily harm to bodily parts he wished to remain in relatively good condition if he didn’t stop using her car, I volunteered to bring the car down this past weekend.

Now lest one think this is a totally chivalrous and kind act on my part, you should know that I LOVE to drive long distances especially in a good car. I drive to New York every time I go simply because the elapsed time of the drive is similar to going to the airport, clearing security and finding a cab into Manhattan and I prefer to drive. I ll pick an off hour and just go..marland to parked in midtown in under 3 1/2 hours. When I had more time on my hands back in the days of my misspent youth I drove cross country just for kicks on several occasions. When I have something on my mind, or just need to get away..I drive.This was not exactly an imposition is my point. Driving down to florida in Feb was the joining of two of my favorite ways to send a self manufactured long weekend.

So at noon Thursday I set south. Leaving earlier would have meant dealing with the vestiges of the Dc rush hour and having to find an appropriate detour to avoid the mess that is the Woodrow Wilson Bridge. By delaying my departure, I avoided traffic hassles and was comfortably south of Dc in less than 35 minutes. I had all necessary supplies for the first part of the voyage, 3 packs of cigarettes, two large coffees, a diet coke a radar detector and some classic rock cds.Once through the mess that is Richmond, that fine southern collection of tobacco factories and gothic catholic churches( I assume they were catholic…your average protestant avoids worshiping in buildings that look like draculas weekend getaway) jammed right up next to the freeway, I settled into the I95 daytime rhythm, pacing myself to the fastest collection of trucks ,staying in the left lane and keeping an eye out for Virginias finest. I left the radio on news for the most part in the daylight hours so the rock and roll beat didn’t influence the gas petal and lead me to trouble too early in the voyage.The beamer rolled along at a leisurely 85 mph relaxed into the pace of traffic and I blew through Virginia in less than 2 and half hours into the comfortable confines of North Carolina.

for those of you have never done the drive through the fair tarheel state, it is a unique journey through the American mind. It is a toss up as to whether there are more Jesus loves you billboards or firecracker stands and all nude, all the time , open 24/7 combination diners and erotica boutiques. One assumes then that outside of time spent at basketball games worshiping either the heels, the wolfpack or the damn dukies, your average north Carolinian spend all his time either

In church

Blowing thing up

In nudie joints.

As tempting as the all nude, all the time open 24/7,breakfast served 24 hours place was, my only stop was at JRs discount cigarette outlet to replenish my supply at the lowest prices in the country.I loaded up on the nasty little things along with Tylenol…driving south in mid afternoon means the sun is ALWAYS in your eyes and can make for a killer headache…quick burger, gas and a large diet and back down the highway.

As the sun began to set I shifted into I95 night driving mode. This uses basic tools of deception and betrayal to wring the maximum speed out of the car. I settle into the pace of traffic and wait for the first “breakaway pack” to come by. It never takes along and here they come. A pack of 4 or 5 cars running together at a high rate of speed,usually with new york, new Jersey or Pennsylvania plates. I hit the pedal and drive the beamer right into the middle of the pack,theory being the cops will get the first or the last of the pack, but not all of us. Further I have a radar detector so at the first shrill warning that lasts more than 10 seconds, I drop out into the right lane and allow my fellow travers to take the tickets. Then its just a matter of settling in at pace..usually around 80..until the next breakaway comes along.
In this manner we raced along into south Carolina where speed limits are really more of a gentle suggestion anyway. The original plan called for taking a leisurely pace to the trip and stop halfway though the palmetto state breaking the drive into two even halves. Bu not now..I still had two cartons of cigarettes, plenty of gas, a radar detector and the greatest hits of Kiss rocking me down the road. I was set to rock and roll all night if need be. My only comment on south Carolina is that although I know it to be a beautiful state, by night on the highway it is as featureless as the surface of some far off planet that advertises new condos and gated communities every 7 and a half feet. They also have developed a way of hurling advertising at you without disturbing the local fauna. They simply build the billboards taller than the pines and palms and shine enough lights on them to shame a Hollywood premiere. Rather than stop I decided to keep going right on into florida before stopping for the night.

Passing through Jacksonville was a very nice surprise. I spent a lot of time there back in the late 70s and early 80 and recalled it a grubby, rundown north florida redneck kind of town. Viewed from the highway at least the town has revitalized nicely. They have outlined the bridges and building in muted colored lights, a mixture of blues,tropical greens and soft reds. The downtown waterfront area appeared to be alive with lights and activity I don’t recall from years gone by. I made a note to get back there at some point and spend a weekend to just to see how much it has changed.

I stopped for the night in st Augustine florida, a great little town of which I have many fond memories. I jumped off the road grabbed a room at country suites. Naturally, I selected the only exit containing only one open eatery, something called a huddle house, and no tavern where a thirsty traveler could seek respite from the road.For the less prepared this could be a problem. After a heary plate of steak and eggs at the aforementioned house of huddle..very similar to a waffle house the greatest chain of good eatin known to all mankind , except the signs are red instead of the traditional waffle house yellow, I returned to my room,cracked open the portable supply of potables, poured a famous grouse and spent a relaxing hour or two reading before drifting off to sleep.

The next days travel was uneventful for most of the first part of the trip, down to Daytona beach and then cutting over on interstate 4 through Orlando and into the greater tampa area. I did however provide some observations about the current state of the state of florida. The entire orange state economy rests on one of 5 pillars
The cocaine trade
Nascar
The bodily functions and healing thereof of thin blooded aging northerners
Golf
A certain mouse

They are building on every possible surface in central Florida.The state bird is the construction crane and the official vehicle is a backhoe. Orland now begins a good 40 miles west of downtown and is possibly the ugliest suburban sprawl in the united states today. The western side consists of cut rate motels for those who have to get the rug rats to Disney or never sleep with both eyes open again until the little snots go off to community college, the military or prison and office parks full of insurance agents peddling long term care fraud, holistic healing universities, medical parks and virtually every type of faux shaman and peddler ones mind could conjure. The west side of course is the home of the almighty mouse. Luxury hotels line the interstate on the west side..they are painted in every possible garish colors known to man and some beg the question of the possibilities of adding one more color without the collapse of the very building itself. They are garish, tacky, expensive…and full to capacity.If the economy is danger of slowing, someone forgot to tell the mouse chasers. The parking lots were jammed to capacity. The Disney influence shows even from the highway as even the support structures on overpasses and exit signs are all done up in a space or castle motif and the signs for fantasy land, waterparks and other places of great fun abound.The mouse and his minions rule west Orlando and you are not allowed to forget this fact for a millisecond.

The rest of the drive west was uneventful but I will pass along one warning. Never speed through lakeland florida. In the span of 10 miles in and around this fair town I counted 11 people pulled over being given tickets. It is the worlds largest speed trap. Apparently unable to generate the revenues of mousetown, they settle for picking the pockets of mouse bound travelers and returnees.

Along the trip down south 75 I did managed to work a little spec related activity into the trip. I met with esteemed fred crossman for a coffee break in Sarasota where he was down from the windy city visiting relatives and chatted about the markets and various trades that were and were not working,ways of adjusting methodologies to capture movements, particularly to the downside in overblown issues with enduring the colon removing agony of fighting the tape and the dimsonian drift..a very nice discussion of credit spreads for bear moves and selling puts on value issues under the palms outside a scenic checkers burger stand.

An hour or so down the road, I stopped in Cape coral for an hour or so to visit the lackey clan . I got a chance to sit canal side with james Lackey, the kerouac and Odysseus of the list. He talked of his plans to embrace his inner redneck and leave his little slice of heaven in Florida to relocate to Nashville in the future. Not sure I see it but to each his own. Talking to lack is best described as a hopeful experience. He posses an enthusiasm and excitement about life, and a happy determination to make his way through life on his own terms surrounded by the people he loves. One leaves lighthearted and aware of lifes possibilities.

Into Naples for a great weekend of fine dining and great drinking with an old friend. Long talks of days past and future plans, a little fishing off the pier and all too soon time to fly home from a great weekend..olots of driving, eating smoking, drinking and seeing some of my oldest, newest and greatest friends on the planet in deep florida in febuary.

Some observations from the road

I95 south of Virginia exists for only two purposes. To get the snowbirds to florida and turn as much of that Yankee money into the property of former members of the confederacy as possible Virtually every exit has an attraction, mini park, historic district or shopping outlet that I the worlds finest, states largest, lowest priced, grandest and greatest something or another that the weary traveler simply must see. Billboards for restaurants of dubious distinction, buffets of undefined quality and safety, strip joints, fireworks, cheap smokes, new condos, resort living, tumbledown motels..all are advertised and available virtually every mile along the way.

Naples Florida is one of the pretiesest towns in the united states. Beautiful beaches, wonderful dining establishments, interesting architecture and just a great atmosphere. All of this has combined to cause what will surely be serious issues in the future. The infrastructure simply cant handle the number of people in season. I would love to be a roads and highway contractor in southwest florida right now as they are feverishly trying to widen and improve roads.
However, building continues at a torrid pace.Every spare piece of ground in and around naples in under construction.I wont call for a burst in the bubble but the activity level reminds very much of the mid to late 80s in San Francisco

Property prices have gone from the absurd to the ridiculous..to the point that attracting service workers..bartenders, waitress, retail shop clerks and the like is becoming very difficult as they simply cannot afford to live within commuting distance of naples.

They are serious about the cigarette lighter thing on airlines. I had my zippo given to me by my son and threw it in my bag on the bottom without another thought. Naturally I ended up being drug out of line and subject to a bag search. I offered to retrieve it for them..but nope…all my dirty laundry was scattered on the tables so they could retrieve it.The little girl working the place treated as osama bin Melvin, calling the airline to make sure I did not check it through, although Im pretty sure that’s legal. My only alternative was to leave the secure area and go to the fed ex stand. Naturally..no envelopes. The guy working there was nice enough to offer to send it when he got to work tonight so hopefully hes hones. I have a tracking number so it will be interesting to see.next time I am wearing a turban, carrying a copy of the Koran and shout racial profiling the first time someone looks at me funny.Having ones unmentionables and dirty socks spreads in front of god and everybody is not a happy experience.

There is nothing like a long drive and good friends to clear ones mind and return the sense of optimism and love of life.Further, should you ever have a chance to sit and visit with crossman or lackey I advise you not to miss the chance. These two gentleman posses a wealth of knowledge and experience that has been of great benefit to many.

current spec list land speed record, annapolis to Naples
12.5 hours total elapsed driving time
average speed 90.34 mph

trip report

It started as these things with the simplest of statements, pure of intention and seemingly a wonderful idea.The current incantation of the one true love of my life ( for those of you following along at home, yes she’s back. Each time we split for a period, I patiently and resolutely stand my ground explaining all the logical, rational reasons we should not be together. Half an hour later I am drunk and naked and we are reunited once again Somewhere there is an explanation for this but I ll be damned if I have one) suggested we trip on down to the beach this past weekend to spend a little time hanging out enjoying a relaxing weekend. She wanted to visit some old friends who now lived down there, one of whom had heart surgery a few weeks and she promised the guys wife we d stop by to see them. Ok ay, I can go with this. I love the beach in the winter. Ocean City is fairly deserted, but the better eating and drinking establishments stay open. A couple of nice nights on the town, drinks by the fireplace at one of the beachfront establishment watching the eternal dance of sand and foam as the ocean crashes to shore, perhaps a little romance and hanky-panky. Perfect. Just what the doctor ordered for a cold winters weekend. Then. After I agreed that this indeed sounded like a wonderful idea she produced the hook, the buzz killer, the killjoy, the downer. By the way, she smiled sweetly, I found a place where we can take the dog with us.

THE DOG. The damn dog

Dog is too simplistic a term for this beast. How does one refer to a 130 pound spoiled rotten rottweiler with a temperament somewhat reminiscent of the offspring of a chance encounter between Attila the Hun and bozo the clown? She thought he was so cute when we adopted him from the pond fours years ago. I recall looking at this fur ball with paws the size of Amazonian snowshoes and thinking this dam dog is going to be big enough to eat a small village. And indeed he has. But in lieu of villages he has over the years developed a taste for steak, medium rare, seafood Norfolk, as well as turkey and dressing, hold the cranberry and eggs (scrambled) with bacon. I confess heartily and mightily to you, gentle reader,this is entirely my fault. She feeds him, at home, good old Alpo and pedigree and doggie treats.. Albeit by the forklift full. I have discovered however that a well fed dog will tend to sleep leaving me free to indulge my taste for non canine involved activities.I am not now ,nor ever have been, a pet person. Walking a dog first thing in the morning regardless of weather or hangover level does not make Tim’s list of really great things to do. The one and only time I ever had a dog I found myself in the air over the Midwest on a spur of the moment Vegas trip before I remembered that I forgot the dog.$125 of air phone minutes later I found someone to walk and feed him for the weekend. Upon return home I found him a more normal home where canines and their lack of opposable thumbs that leave them unable to operate a can opener or doorknob are more appreciated than in my humble abode. She,on the other hand, thinks that no home is complete without a dog and a cat in attendance. What in the hell it is about dog hair everywhere and a littler box that completes her sense of home escapes me, but nonetheless where she goes the rottenwilder goes. The dog is her protector and in the grand tradition of rotties loyal to her and her alone. If I want to argue with her while the rottenwilder is in a attendance I must go in the other room and close the door lest he be tempted to take her side and forcefully make the point that I am an idiot. She does so quietly. He does so in the manner and character of a 130 pound rottie. Much safer on the other side of the door. Lest I paint too bad a picture of the beast I confess that some 61.3% of the time I am fond of the slathering slack jawed terror and take amusement at his antics. He’s a good dog. I am not however a dog person but have learned to adjust…sort of.

So off we go on our grand adventure, piling into her expedition for the hour and a half trip to the beach. An uneventful journey on a late Saturday afternoon, a pleasant journey through the eastern ashore of Maryland arriving just about dinnertime. I am looking forward to checking in getting the dog settled and a nice steak and adult libation or two. We were staying at the Clarion resort and I really liked the place when I stayed there some years back for a convention. As a bonus, the Ocean Club with a nice bar and grand views of the rolling surf is in the hotel I am looking forward to a nice evening in spite of the winds that had started to gust and howl down the beach at rather impressive levels. I note as we cruise up Coastal highway that most of the hotels are virtually empty this colds winters night so it should be fairly easy to check into the hotel with our rottenwilder. This would of course be another time when such sunny optimism would be bitten squarely in the buttocks by the fickle jaws of fate. As we pulled into the clarion, the place was packed. The only place to even park was in the overflow lot on the other side of coastal highway. Two..count them folks, two conventions were in attendance at the only hotel in Ocean City that allows dogs over 25 pounds. To make it more interesting one was a gathering of faux bikers, a Honda gold wing club with little leather vests stretched tight over middle aged paunches, complete with various patches and pins like the real Harley riding types..as well as a gathering of sales reps for a well known cable company. True to form I felt fates teeth sink in deeper as virtually everyone in the hotel s was in the lobby for some fool reason. Now, the rottenwilder is not really mean but he does scare easily in crowds and he looks menacing as hell. The crowd parted in form that recalled a fellow named Moses and the red sea as I dragged the beast..and I must say that watching me at 155 pounds try to drag and cajole this mountainous animal anywhere is a scene funny enough to be worthy of a Jim Carrey movie.. but we did make it to the elevator without too much effort. A crowd of ladies in full evening apparel stepped off the elevator and stopped in a frozen second of shock and awe at the grand sight that greeted them. On their way to an elegant evening out they step to find themselves confronted by the hellhound of the youthful dreams. They tippytoe around our fair rocky the rottenilder and with a heave and ho worthy of a pyramid laborer of ancient Egypt I drag my current incantations faithful companion into the elevator while praying no one else gets on. Up to the sixth floor, into the room and sigh with great relief. Mission (temporarily) accomplished.

Now, to feed the monster who has settled in on the bed watching his favorite football team (for reason I cannot explain the dog favors the redskins..no accounting for taste), a quick change and down to the ocean club for dinner and drinks. I look forward to a pleasant evening. In doing so I have, naturally, again exposed my bare backside to the snarling jaws of the fates and furies.As we leave the room from the hallway we can hear it begin..the whimpering whine of our faithful rottenwilder upset at being left alone in unfamiliar circumstances building in tone and tempo until yes, there it is the culmination the full throated bark of a scared rottenwilder. Loud enough to equal the sound of intense artillery barrage, intense and consistent in nature. Loud enough surely to get us kicked out of a crowded hotel with thin walls. We will have to take him with us. So we replay the lobby scene of hustling the beast through a crowd of cable salesman and middle aged rice burning pretenders who view rocky as one might view the lost city of Atlantis or perhaps bigfoot showing up to sip martinis at a park avenue cocktail party.No wonder the dog has issues. Out to the truck dashing through temperatures dropping faster than Dorothy parkers knickers after the 4th martini and winds beginning to howl off the ocean with gusts of force equivalent to one of my ex wives tirades about what a worthless ne'r do well I am, we jumped into the truck and headed off to find an open dining establishment with the dogbeast settled comfortably in the back head on the center consol, a big old happy dog, where we going grin on his canine face. We both want a steak so we head to the Bonfire, park near the back. For his part Rocky settles happily in the back snuggled in his blanket and awaits our return. While we never leave him alone in the truck during warm weather, it’s nowhere near warm and the interior of the truck is fairly comfortable for him so it’s off to dinner. A decent steak and an Irish martini or two I’m feeling a little better about the evening.
Back to the truck, two satisfied diners and a happy rottenwilder. Now however comes the sweet smile and new idea. Lets take the dog down to the inlet for a quick walk on the beach. We ll just bundle up and it will be fine. He loves the beach, the cold and the exercise will wear him out. I’m a little dubious on this one, but you will note that this gentle suggestion contains no option to refuse. It has, in other words the force of one General Patton’s orders to advance upon Bastogne. No choice but into the breach for my little skinny Irish Butt.
We arrive at the pretty much deserted inlet and I bundle up to hop out and walk the beast. I note that she is fiddling with the heat and putting her Bon Jovi cd in the player. I ask her if she wants her coat and she gives me that look that women give their men when we say something incredibly stupid. I ll just wait here in the truck while you walk him..It looks like the wind might have picked up again. And indeed it has complete with sleet being blown sideways by gale force winds giving it the velocity and feel of charging a machine gun nest. But, ours is not to reason why. Ours is to walk the damn dog.
Out we go across the sand and the dog initially is overjoyed. He does love the beach and is impervious to cold. I move along behind him, taking furious fire from the blowing sleet and sand wondering if I ll least get a silver boyfriend star of perhaps even the coveted congressional medal of really good guy out of this when the dog takes off for the truck at light speed. My arm rips from the socket with a pop that is audible over the howling wind and I have to run full speed to keep up with him. He caught a wind driven burst of sand full in the face and does not wish to play any longer. So back to the hotel and play the lobby game again. At least now he doesn’t fear the elevator and it’s an uneventful trip.

Back to the room, feed the dog his leftover steak. Mix drinks. She turns on a movie and settles in. I sigh knowing this means I m going to miss the late game. She cashes in my medal earned in the fierce beach encounter and sends me off with her blessing to watch the football game down in the Ocean Club.FREEEEEDOM.

While sitting happily at the bar, Irish and water in hand, a nice bowl of peanuts and the Patriots losing to the Broncos ending the wearisome dynasty talk everytime they step on the field, I fell into conversation with a near retired high school technology teacher from central Maryland. As we talked, one he found out I’m involved in the markets he told me the typical tale of gruesome losses in 2001. He has since reinvested in and pyramided ocean city condos,. He proudly told me he now owns 4 of them. Rather than pay a property manager for seasonal rentals he rents year round. I figure this little move has saved him about 3 grand a year in fees and cost him about 10,000 annually in rentals. He confesses it is a negative cash flow situation. The words make me flinch internally as I cannot conceive of owning a rental property that didn’t cover the basic costs of ownership.He is not, in other words, a math teacher. More the kind of guy who cashes in his successful fund to do it himself at ameritrade and is thrilled by the low fees he is paying to lose all that money.We have a nice conversation but I cannot help but think that with the forest of for sale signs I saw along coastal highway earlier in the day and the 6 or 7 new condo projects in town that Ocean City was on the verge on a serious supply demand problem..one which happens here every decade or so…counting on appreciation to bail one out a negative cash flow condo empire is very,very close to owning The Internet Fund in 2001.Counting on the unlikely to continue forever seems to me to be a precarious retirement plan. He asks for no advice however and I offer none, content to enjoy the game and cocktail before me. I wont predict a dire real estate crash, but at least in ocean City , Maryland I think the basic laws of supply and demand will very soon spell the end of the bull market in vacation homes. Simply put the market is glutted with for sale and new offerings.


Back to the room. Guess who wants to go outside? Well..its not me, lets just put in that way. She of course is asleep. Off we go. Through the lobby out into the howling ocean winds. At least, the sleet has stopped. Replaced of course by snow. Down to the beach, run in frantic happy circle, do the necessaries, back to the room. At last sleep. Of course not. The hotel has run down in recent years and the sliding glass door is shaking and pounding in its frame due to the high wind it sounds like a small town theatre group doing the third act of rent. At long last however, sleep does indeed come. Until the 7am dog nose in ear that means its potty time again. I have never understood how the dog has always made the choice to wake me for his morning constitutional. IT”S HER DOG. But..no she sleeps blissfully unaware while I take the beast out into the cold morning. By now however, we re pros at this. Zip down to the beach back to the hotel. The rottenwilder does everything but push the elevator buttons . He has this down to a doggy science. He knows where the elevators are and which room is his.

The rest of the day is uneventful. We go to visit her friends, with the beast of course. He hangs out in the truck while I sit in a doublewide vacation palace that these folks sold a huge house in southern Maryland to move into , preferring to simplify and be near their kids. Who are over visiting. With all the grandchildren There are 17 people in the doublewide this day happily munching, chomping and chomping on everything in sight. I sit with the husband watching the colts game with a smoke and doggy walk break every hour or so. I am grateful I have to walk the dog. The noise level in the doublewide is akin to the Old Cole field house during a Maryland duke game. I start to get the feeling that there is perhaps too much blood in my alcohol system to withstand too much more of this. Happily after a brief 5-hour visit she is ready to go.
Repeat hotel and beach walk. Get dressed. Repeat lobby. Load dog , off to dinner. Not much open on a Sunday night in the resort down but happy surprise we trip across Fresco a very good Italian place still open. The food is top rate, the service first class. A very nice surprise. Even rocky gave his leftover penne with crab two paws up. Down to Duffy’s tavern to watch the bears game and then home again to out hotel.Monday was uneventful except for a nice stroll down the boardwalk in the now warmish winter sun with a surprisingly well behaved rottenwilder before departing for home.

Some weekend observations:

The Indianapolis Colts once again proved that the avoidance of risk is often not the right solution. By resting their starter for the last few games, they basically went a month without experiencing the fierce competition that is NFL football, They lost an edge that cannot only be obtained in games, not practice. They were flat, they made mistakes they had not made all season. By sidestepping injury, they instead gained rust.And as Neil young pointed out rust never sleeps especially in the playoffs.

The Steelers also came very close to proving that abandoning a steady aggressive approach that works in order to play not to lose is also a bad idea. After punishing manning the first 3 qtrs with a powerful pass rush from 4 down lineman, they went to a nickel back and 3 down lineman. Manning almost beat them because of it. One shoestring tackle missed and the Colts would have come back from down 21-3 to win the game. On the last drive Cowher wised up and went back to 4 down lineman and played not to win rather than not to lose forcing Indy to try a long field goal to tie.

Bringing us to the point..Sometimes it just not going to go your way. Indoors there was no way Vanderjagt misses the field goal 99.7% of the time. But the .03 does have a way of biting you sometimes.Indoors,at home the best kicker in the NFL missed it. Nothing you can do about it except be aware it happens, pick up and move on. They are a great team and next year awaits.Bad trade? It happens. Move on or you will surely suffer more of the same in rapid fashion.

When its crunch time the great ones step up. The Carolina Panthers did not beat the bears. Steve Smith did. He was unstoppable and the bear defense, the best in the league all year simply had no answer for him. After losing the NVL mvp and top runner in Shawn Alexander, matt hasselback stepped in the void and simply outplayed the redskin defense.

If like the bears you intend to win by great defense and low risk offense, falling behind means having to alter your game plan in such a way that defeat is inevitable. Once again playing not to lose may get you to the playoffs. It will not however win championships. To lift the Lombardi trophy on the field, in the market or in life one must be prepared to risk it all occasionally. In upsetting the colts, the steelers went for several 4th down attempts..something the conservative cowhers never does. But this was the playoffs.

Don’t bother with the Clarion resort in Ocean city unless traveling with a large canine forces you to do so. They seem to have the attitude that since they have a conference center they will attract business regardless of amenities or upkeep. The rooms are not kept up, the beds are undersized and horrendously uncomfortable. There are several other conference centers in town and a new one being built by Hilton. I suspect they begin to lose business rather rapidly with a resulting overhaul of property and managers. Having a near monopoly does not mean you will always hold the market if you don’t satisfy the customers.

Do go to Fresco if you re ever in OC. In the midst of all the all you can eat buffets and hamburger joints this place is a delightful surprise. So if you re a t the beach take one night and treat yourself.

Those who do understand the basic concepts of their investments and merely chase the current fashion are doomed to failure. My school teacher friend from thre ocean club would be cashflow positive and better able to withstand a slowdown had he been willing to pay a property manager to handle his rentals. Likewise owning all tech funds in your retirement plan in 2000 indicates that one follows the herd and expects ths lion to never show. Lions like to eat. They always show up

Lastly…Never let your girlfriend go to a pound where they have cute rottenwilder puppies unless you like 6 am walks on a snowy beach.

from a list sent out suggesting purchase on nov 21 I suggested the following stocks for the yr end rally..they were slected using the criteria laid out in greenblatts book and then rerun through my valuation and insider/institutional activity screens
bebeclctcttdhbftdkfyntgrpbhpmd
return so far is 10.05 on a dollar wieghted purchase..triple the nasdaq 3.02 since then,4 times the sp 500.Using the concept of selling options on these type value situation, they are ll still above the next strike down I would have sold at.....
naturally the market was in a much better spot for buying in late novemebr than we have here after the mini rally of december so a tad more caution is called for but I do have an interest in selling the following to establish longs
kfy..sell the march 17.50 puts for .4
ceco sel the feb 30 for 1.3
ftd feb 10 for .5(take some patience for this to happen)
chk feb 30 for .6
stocks from the value line 1-2 under 10 that I think we should write on as well( another highly volatile stellar year for this strategy last year with +22% with puke inducing drawdowns along the way....I think makes perfect for put selling strategy...get put the stocks in vomitus period,sell ensuing rally
sell the io feb 7.5 for .6
would like to open positions in skil,scmr and arba off this list but need pullback to do so..picking my spots carefully here as i think the straight up rally since first of yr leaves us vulnerable.
would be a buyer of remc liquidation below 1.25 as I think there is at least 1.50 in the deal

Gmail is now blocked from our office computers as it consumes toomuch bandwidth, so it was not until I arrived back at my abode I foundthe ridiculous email being circulated entitled 50 things girls need toknow about guys..A veritable laundry list about whatsecretly,sensitive touch feely types men really are, who could neversurvive without the aid of a woman.I was so inspired by this genderblending pyscho-babble, I decided to share my true feelings and listmy own version of things women need to know. Being male and able tostate a point without useless verbage, heres the 25,down from 50,things women really need to know:

1. be naked often
2. bring scotch
3. make sure its the right brand
4. no talking during the game unless its a request for wild sex
5.I dont want to know your friends.
6. my friends dont like you but I dont care as long as you zealously practice #1
7. You re still not coming with us when we go drinking.
8. Inviting me to one of your family gatherings is an invitation todisaster..unless they are all literate drunks as well
9.No, I dont think I drink too much.
10. If you dont like the fact that I smoke, the door is at the bottomof the stairs. Please give your key to the next girl
11.If you hear me talking about margin calls the proper response is tostrip and make me a drink.
12. same with getting kings cracked by aces.
13. I dont care if your mother likes me..in fact I d prefer she didnt.
14.Yes, you look fat in that dress..take it off and get over here.
15.do not put light beer in my refrigerator
16.If Im hungover..you re on top
17.there is no such thing as too much sex.they dont wear out ya know.
18. Acording to the actuarial tables, I only have around 11,315 moredays to go.Why are you still dressed?
19.Please do not invite your sister and her newbaptist/mormon/temperance union founder over for dinner.It wll not endwell no matter how nice a guy he is.
20.Yes, I really bet the house.get busy packing would you.
21.Oral sex is not yucky or for special occasions. It is mandatory and now would be a good time to start.
22.Yes, in fact I am having another drink.
23.When my friends call drunk at 2am, I am going to answer it. I do itto them all the time.
24.If you suffer from PMS,please go visit friends until it passes
.25.The proper way to discuss your feelings and our relationship is to be nude and proffer a drink before commencing.That way I can stare atyour nether parts and drink enogh to drown out your whining.

Growth versus value..buying high pe justifiable? Great question. lets look at a real world example.For the high pe component I ll use the current darling google. Google trades at a market cap of 123 billion dollars and produces 2.7 billion of operating cash flow. The consesnus analyst survey for goodles forward growth rate is 30% a year for the next 5 years.at this rate the cash flow grows to 10.02 billion giving us an earnings yield on our original investment of 8% not too shabby. Except that if we focus on just buying good companies at great prices, at todays price for google we can buy all of:
American eagle outfitters..aeos
symantec..symc
netgear..ntgr
helen of troy...hele
temper-pedic ...tpx
chesapeake energy...chk
ftd florists...ftd
valor communication...vcr
barnes and noble..bks
international game..igt
lexmark...lxk
nucor...nue
jakks-pacific...jakk
charlotte russo...chic
bebe stores...bebe
h and r block...hrb
harley davidson...hdi
korn-ferry...kfy
king phrama...kg
tribune..trb
gannett...gci
career education...ceco

this portfolio of comapanies from the start generates over 13 billion over operating earnings.in 5 years of growing at just 10%..and all of them have a consensus estimate of that or better, in 5 years they produce over 20 billion of operating cash earnings...twice what the rapid growing goole is producing, an earnings yield of 19% on orginal investment. Looking further out if google continues to grow at 20% a year and our portfolio of finance, energy, media,insurance,education,retail,motorcycles,persoanl services,gaming and technology companies slows to 5% a year, the eranings crossover where google outearns the cheapies occurs in the 11th year. This assumes that none of the 10 billion or so of excess operating earnings was reinvested profitably over that period of time. a most unlikely suggestion in my opinion.it alos implies that no new competotor to goole such as CRUSTY slows google growth rate.

the grinch

Every spec
down in specville
liked trading a lot
but the grinch
who lived just north of specville
did NOT

The grinch hated trading
The whole market, each and everyone
He didn’t even think it was fun
It could be he had bought up some losers or a flamer
Perhaps he had been trading on tips from old cramer
Maybe he had a socialist daddy and mommy
But mostly I think he was just a damn commie

But whether it was his purse, or just his mind that was a wreck
He stood there before the open hating each spec
Deep in his cave he hated each one he could see
And dreaded the open of the NYSE
For he knew that the specs down in specville below
Were ready to trade and try to prfit from order flow
And they re checking their charts and running their stats
Look at them trade the filthy damn rats
He snarled to himself that this really must stop, they must trade no more
I must find a way to keep those trades from reaching the floor

For at the open he knew


All the specs, the girls and the boys
Would holler and yell, and make all that noise
They would yell and they would holler as they keyed up a trade
Or as the market moved, Mozart and cole porter would be played
The noise, the noise, the noise, the noise He could not stand
They were just too loud as they picked and they panned

And after they would sit down to plot the next day
Each of course doing it a different way
They would count and they’d plot, they would graph and they would chart
10qs and 10ks,stats and TA would be taken to heart
they would talk and they would chat and beat each idea to death
the grinch would hate traders until his last breath



but what he hated really the most of it all
was the buying, the selling of both large cap and small
trading of options and futures and forex and grain
winners bought smiles and losers bought pain
but they bought and they sold, they sold and they bought
all day long each other and the markets they fought

they would trade! and they would trade! And they would trade!
Every damn day the trend they would fade
The more the grinch thought of the specville and specs
He knew these markets he must wreck
For centuries he thought I ve put up with it now
I must stop traders from trading!..but HOW?

The he got an idea
An awful idea
The Grinch got a wonderful awful idea

I must dress up and get into town
I ll tax and I'll regulate and close them all down
I ll write movies and books, and even tv shows
And show all the people that capitalism blows
I ll talk and the talk and look just like a spec
And from inside their system I ll wreck

So headed for Dc to wreck the whole fed
While passing through MD he saw two specs,Tim and old fred
Sitting in a dock bar arguing about stuff they had read,
Talking about stocks and girls and swilling down beer
The grinch snuck around the two quickly with fear
Thinking “though Im the grinch my livers not strong
Starting with those two would really be wrong”

On his way to Chicago to give the merc and the cboe a whammy
He ran into another spec of some note, little spec pammy
Nothing to see here he said, no need to even look
Run away now, little spec pam, and perhaps I ll have andy beal write you a book
He saw them all there,Jason and ryan and brian and all the other chi town speculators
They were all there, the breakout boys , the arbs, and even trend faders
He closed the cboe,closed the board of trade, even the merc home of the spooz
He closed them each, he closed them all,now they cant trade, they cant win, they cant even lose




Now to new york to close out them all, the nyse,amex and even the pits that trade oil
There was no one, not even one spec who could the grinchs grand plan foil
No more of this trading, no more of this buying, none of this selling
No more screaming in the phone, no one in the pit yelling
I ll take their computers, their charts and their graphs,why..I ll even take their stats
Ill take their colorful trading jackets, flaming pink pants and even their lucky trade hats
No more systems or averages, I ll leave nothing not even a candle stick or even a band
There will no more trading, we ll remove all the profit and all will be grand
No one, no man, no woman or spec these markets will be saving
Why,Not even krisrock with all his ranting and raving

I ‘ll close them all all over the land, and do without a single care
Even in Weston, I ll close down the bold one they call chair
And even spec steve and Duncan and doc, the dude and young tim
From the east to the west, Europe and even the pac-rim
I ll stop all this trading and close all the markets I find
No more of this profiting from your courage and mind
No more coaxing reward from great risk
Because all the markets,all of them, away I will whisk

And the specs will fall quiet all over the land ,no trading no more
Not even carstens or florida dan,no on the wire , not on the floor
Not even the two professors, not ross and not the bbq voodoo
nothing even the gambler or the listmaster can do
From rollert to sogi, from Nigel to ari and lackey back to young ott
From zussman to rudy, fromm north to south, east to west how silent they will have got

Back to his cave toting his load went the grinch
Closing these markets was really a cinch
I have the numbers,their charts and their q’s, theres nothing to count anymore
I ve taken their systems and books,closed the web and even the nyif store
No more brokers,buyers or sellers, no funds neither mutual nor hedge
No breakouts ,flags, stochastics,%r flags or patterns..not even an ascending nor descending wedge
No roe, roi,,current assets,debt to equity,no ratio of p over e nor value of book
No trading slips, no order screens,trading desks, all the these I closed or I took

He looked down from his cave at Specville as morning was breaking while evilly humming
Because soon the specs would rise and see no trading day was forthcoming
They are just waking up and I know just what the will do,they will stand their and sob
Now they cant trade, they cannot sell nor buy..they might even have to get a real job
And that’s sight and a noise I must hear,So he stood with his hand to his ear
It started out low and started to grow,first a slight murmer but now near a roar
Bbut the sound wasn’t sad, there was no sad sobbing, and the grinch shook to his core
Because all thos psecs down in specville were
TRADING!!!!!!!!!!

How can this be thought the grinch, how can they put in an order
There are no electronics, no internet, no brick,and no mortar?
I took their charts, their graphs,their stats and fundamentals
There are no markets, not stock, not bonds, not oilt not even grains nor even lentils
But the sounds of the market across across the land, a thousand bida t a half, sell the jan sevens
The specs of specville were buying and selling, the sound rose to the cave and beyond to the heavens

How can this be he pondered for hours,that trading goes on withoutall their stuff or their places
And then it dawned on the grinch as clear as the focus on spec faces
Perhaps trading wasn’t just noise and pointless selling and buying
But perhaps about the courage of specs to take risks, risk falling but keep trying
Perhaps trading was about providing markets to feed one and to feed all, a way to earn profits, to learn and to grow
That all the specs in spec land had learned to love risk and studied their craft with great care
Learning that the meaning of life,was just perhaps, about the courage to live and the courage to dare
That spec bet on the markets was really a bet on themselves in ayn randish type fashion
That these specs of spec ville lived unlike most others, they lived with great passion

They say the grinch burned his communist manifesto that great day
And rushed right down the mountain and entered the fray
Sold a few bonds, bought a little oil and went long a few spooze
He learned out to trade, he learned how to win and he learned how to lose
He learned how to arb, which trend to follow and which trend to fade
Into the trenches he learned the meaning of life and learned what it meant to TRADE
He learned to never quit searching nor trying,That living was learning
That traders,especially in specville, use their heart and their wit to do all their earning
He would have highs and he would have lows, win great victories and suffer great blows
Somedays flush with piles of cash, others having to count his fingers and toes
But our grinch learned that day, and went on to a life spent as a hard working trader
Out of his cave to a mansion he moved and thought that all in all nothing could greater!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Lacks brilliant post this morning started many of the wheels turning in the Melvin noggin today,especially the need to be aggressive yet patient. It would seem to me to be one of those ah-ha statements that contains several layers of truth.In markets, in poker and in just about every area of life I can think of, its is aggression that wins the day.but unchecked aggression also contains the seeds of sudden and complete annihilation. One of the places where aggression is the order of the day for victory is of course, Military warfare. But then I think of the civil war and all the battles lee and longstreet won by playing great defense and aggressively defending their position on the high ground. It was only on the attack they were beaten, first at Antietam and then again at Gettysburg.Again, some historians suggest that had Lee listened to old pete and swung around to the high ground, abandoning Gettysburg but blocking the union army from the capital, the north may well have sued for peace. In the revolutionary War, Washington and the colonials nipped at the heels of the British, only attacking when they had clear advantage and surprise. Had he met them full scale on the battlefield early in the war, he would have beaten resoundingly and all the founding fathers hung in the courtyard of Independence Hall. In World War two it was the pure attacking aggression in both Europe and the pacific that won the war for the allies. But not until the gears of the US war Machine were at full force, with factories spewing out machines and ordinance did we retaliate in any strong fashion. The first landings in North Africa were almost a year after Pearl harbor. The first counter attack in the pacific was in August of 1943 at Guadacanal, nine months after the Japanese surprise attack. We were aggressive, but on our terms, at times and places of our choosing with the strength to back our play.As for agression unchecked with no plan or patience..well just google “custer, general george”. The new craze of televised poker features the pure aggression needed to be a winning poker player. They show the check raises,all in bets and stunning calls that are the hallmark of a great poker play. What they don’t show, however is the 500 hands the great ones folded to get into position to make the aggressive play.It takes not only aggression but patience and buttocks of iron to make a great poker player. Ed Gross wrote a brilliant piece on this subject called overlay?play(I think its in the archives and it is a good piece to read) on the list a few years back outlining how he sized up the room and looked for the edge before he played. I have hung around just enough casino card rooms in my time to see the new tv poker fanatics walk in thinking they can play like Layne Flack or daniel Negreneau and sit down at a table way above their limit and get crushed by being loose aggressive and trying to make good tv instead of playing winning poker. We ve seen in markets a thousand times. A guy tries to get too big and crashes and burns. Regardless on underlying trends, valuations, stats they plunge in up to their necks thinking what they learned in B-school or the success they had being accidentally long in a bull market(please see 1995-1999) meant they actually knew what the hell they were doing. I see guys trying to squeeze the last juice out of extended markets such as high yield and emerging market debt and levering it to the sky to make it work rather than waiting for the spot.hedgies are laying 10 times leverage on risk arb deals with a 1% spread trying to get back the juice of bygone years on this overtraded market. They may want to check in with the convert arb guys and see how that worked for them.In my mind one of the smartest plays out there is to sell puts on an individual equity you would like to own at the lower price. It does not make sense to just sell the puts any time but on down days when the volatility and pricing of the puts is at its highest( I am far from an option genius. Vic, Phil and many other here are MUCH better at options that I could ever think of being.but this DOES make sense to me overtaxed little value guy brain). In other words, wait for the spot and then be aggressive. How do most people put on this trade? Pretty much any old time regardless of price and rather selling as many puts as they are willing to own stock, they sell them to limit of their margin balance. Improper aggression applying a good idea at the wrong place and time and its “hi, uncle , Ned..I ah have a slight problem here…couldya help a brother out?” I don’t think time frame matter here either. Those of us who have been in the Weston trading room have marveled at how Victor sits and waits, and waits and waits…when it hits his spot, however he is as aggressive as anyone I ve even seen..lessons learned as Lack pointed out, From 40+ years of studying markets.There was reference earlier this moth to studies of whether waiting until the market has a down month or not matters concluding that the difference was so slight as to not matter. True enough on the face but irrelevant if your holding period is less than a year as I suspect is true of most on the list. In individual stocks there are countless studies show as the works of charles brandies and joseph piotroski that buying shares of reasonably financially strong companies after a large decline has a dramatic positive impact on returns.If your time frame is a week, buying after 5 straight up days might not be such a great idea..likewise selling after straight downs is probably not a well though out move. My point..yes be aggressive but know your market, your time frame and your entry point. Being aggressive isn’t maxing out your margin level on every trade but only doing so when you have the clear cut, well defined edge for it to make sense. One must also realize that there is a time and place to realize that waiting and aggression isnt working. You were wrong on the trade. If theres an ace on the board and someone re-raises you it might be far wiser to fold those pocket queens instead of pushing all in.Likewise, slow playing a strong position with the thought of building a pot gives an opponent a chance to draw out on your aces. Just as many times I ve bought a few shares of a stock I knew was a good selection with the thought of adding more later only to have it taken over at a massive premium and I miss a chance to really score.If you have the edge and you know it, get your money in.If it becomes clear you re wrong at some point. Get as much back out as you can. Swing around and take the high ground,rebuild your strength until the next opportunity comes along.It always does. This simple thought..be aggressive..but wait until you have the clear edge would seem to apply to all areas of our lives(and I mean all areas, anyone wishing to have a discussion of the ill effects of the aggressive pursuit of the wrong woman need only stroll to the seedy dock bars of Maryland and purchase the author a tumbler of fine irish for a PHD level education in the subject. For the reverse, and the many benefits or aggressive pursuit of the right woman I suggest talking to Jason Thompson,lackey or Kevin Depew. Jason will take scotch but kevins to his discredit will want bourbon. Lack doesn’t drink so I think you may get off cheap there). Every move forward I have made in my life has been because I saw the chance and took it,like cortez burning my ships on the beach so that was in fact no retreat.Most of my regrets have to do with opportunites I let slip and didn’t pursue hard enough as soon as I saw them thinking the window would be open forever.It didn’t. Many thanks Lack for pushing these thoughts to the forward in my feeble brain.

monday

the energizer bunny rally keeps going

todays range..st 1265 to 1270
longer terms both still at 1180 to 1275

we are much closer to top of ranges than bottoms and vix is aproaching levels associeated with past sell offs

morning

no change in loner ranges..today short term is 1257 to 1237

Each year at this time as we all begin to think…at least those of us here inthe United States of the many joys of thanksgiving, those joyous reunions offamilies that damn near always end with cousin Roy and Uncle Bob bashingeach other about the head and face with turkey legs over some long forgottenslight and Aunt Edna tippling off the better part of your expensive whiskeystash, whilst those apples of our eyes, the wee ones fling mashed potatoesand peas at each other with great abandon, those delightful moments offalling asleep watching the pitiful Detroit Lions play on the onlynationally televised game they ever appear in, too stuffed with obsceneamounts of food to even reach for the remote, instead lying there, pantsunsnapped, a great turkey bloated island of a creature..this gloriousholiday of overeating, alka seltzer and grand hangover creation. To saynothing of the joy of getting to our destination…7 hour drives in snow andrain, bumper to bumper traffic and construction zones, airports seethingwith frustrated humanity and helpful personnel so delighted at working thisholiday they are only too pleased to assist by telling you EXACTLY whereto go; yes then, the Joy of the Season is upon us .In spite of these many happy journeys and gatherings it is a day or a timewhen it is good to reflect upon those many blessings and wonders that havebeen bestowed upon us, through friends, family, Democracy, markets and to begrateful for the spark of unbridled humanity that runs in all our veins Ispeak here more of the humanity that Ayn rand wrote of than the give tillhurts and the bleed some more that the word humanity seem to be defined astoday. Each of us has been a gift called life and a chance to learn,experience, achieve, fail, to taste both the dust and the glory that islife. That in and of itself is reason to be thankful.In addition to that, each of us have more to be grateful for..a and along
books, a particular moment or place that has touched out lives. I know I do.I am thankful that I grew up in a time and place where a 16 year old boy/mankicked out of his parents(with great justification I might add..look uphoodlum/idiot/heathen and you have the start of the story of my teen years.My mother threw me out. How she found the restrain not to beat me to a pulpand feed me to the neighbors dogs I ll never know) could work mornings as adishwasher, afternoons as a cook and go to night school and break the traphe had set for himself, take a job as a traveling salesman and leave theghetto behind, spend 5 years knocking on doors, learning about himself,about people, how to sell, to communicate, traveling one end of the countryto the other in an experience I would not trade today for anything as itformed the core of who I would become. I am grateful every day that I amblessed and graced by whatever powers the universe be it pure mathematics orthe Irish-catholic God ( I was much scolded for not typing the Deity’s namein caps in a previous post. I ask said Deity for her forgiveness and correctmy error here)of my youth with two children, a daughter of 21 years, abeautiful child whose laugh is so quick and smile so bright one would neverguess how bravely and fiercely she fought the illness that has plagued herthe last few years, a bright, determined young woman who for reasons thatescape me most day loves her father and brings much laughter and happinessto his life, and has impressed him with her determination to overcomeobstacles and steer a course through life that she has chosen and will notwaver from: the lanky shaggy haired 17 year old boy(how can they see withtheir hair like that) who is the proverbial class clown, too quick wittedfor his own good at times, who has proven to be a hard working young man of",1]
);
//-->
the way, the earned gift of intellect family, friends, great music, greatbooks, a particular moment or place that has touched out lives. I know I do.I am thankful that I grew up in a time and place where a 16 year old boy/mankicked out of his parents(with great justification I might add..look uphoodlum/idiot/heathen and you have the start of the story of my teen years.My mother threw me out. How she found the restrain not to beat me to a pulpand feed me to the neighbors dogs I ll never know) could work mornings as adishwasher, afternoons as a cook and go to night school and break the traphe had set for himself, take a job as a traveling salesman and leave theghetto behind, spend 5 years knocking on doors, learning about himself,about people, how to sell, to communicate, traveling one end of the countryto the other in an experience I would not trade today for anything as itformed the core of who I would become. I am grateful every day that I amblessed and graced by whatever powers the universe be it pure mathematics orthe Irish-catholic God ( I was much scolded for not typing the Deity’s namein caps in a previous post. I ask said Deity for her forgiveness and correctmy error here)of my youth with two children, a daughter of 21 years, abeautiful child whose laugh is so quick and smile so bright one would neverguess how bravely and fiercely she fought the illness that has plagued herthe last few years, a bright, determined young woman who for reasons thatescape me most day loves her father and brings much laughter and happinessto his life, and has impressed him with her determination to overcomeobstacles and steer a course through life that she has chosen and will notwaver from: the lanky shaggy haired 17 year old boy(how can they see withtheir hair like that) who is the proverbial class clown, too quick wittedfor his own good at times, who has proven to be a hard working young man of
caused so many family dinners to turn into affairs of hysterical laughter ofthe table pounding, lung wheezing variety( this is occasionally problematicif said dinner is a public establishment),who in spite of his tough guydemeanor will still give his old father a hug in front of his buddies andtell his old man he loves him. He has inherited a tad too much of hisfathers love of the good times and long legged beauties but there isgreatness in him.I am thankful that in a world of second chances my father,, he of the StJohns degree and seven languages who walked out in a drunken stupor when Iwas six found the raw courage and sobriety to walk back in when I was 16.That a man whose fall from grace extended all the way to the streets couldfind a redemption that made him a legend among the drunks of Baltimore forhow many he eventually helped on the road to recovery before he died so damnmany years ago. He lost everything, even his very self but found his wayback, recovering his dignity, his family and his self. He has been gone forover 22 years now and I still regard him as the bravest man I ever met alongthe path of life.I am thankful that my mother lived in a time and a place where when findingherself alone with 4 children in a tenement, one dollar to her name, tooproud to take welfare or assistance, armed with nothing but her intelligence, determination and love for her children she could carve a life for us all.Where all the presents came from at Christmas time and birthdays on thesalary of a data entry clerk with all those mouths to feed came from I allnever know. She worked on through it all, a chronically ill daughter withasthma and assorted complications so bad Johns Hopkins Doctors made a careerof studying her case, a son with a wild streak who fought and stole, in and",1]
);
//-->
a thrifty nature for all his tom foolery, whose impressions and antics havecaused so many family dinners to turn into affairs of hysterical laughter ofthe table pounding, lung wheezing variety( this is occasionally problematicif said dinner is a public establishment),who in spite of his tough guydemeanor will still give his old father a hug in front of his buddies andtell his old man he loves him. He has inherited a tad too much of hisfathers love of the good times and long legged beauties but there isgreatness in him.I am thankful that in a world of second chances my father,, he of the StJohns degree and seven languages who walked out in a drunken stupor when Iwas six found the raw courage and sobriety to walk back in when I was 16.That a man whose fall from grace extended all the way to the streets couldfind a redemption that made him a legend among the drunks of Baltimore forhow many he eventually helped on the road to recovery before he died so damnmany years ago. He lost everything, even his very self but found his wayback, recovering his dignity, his family and his self. He has been gone forover 22 years now and I still regard him as the bravest man I ever met alongthe path of life.I am thankful that my mother lived in a time and a place where when findingherself alone with 4 children in a tenement, one dollar to her name, tooproud to take welfare or assistance, armed with nothing but her intelligence, determination and love for her children she could carve a life for us all.Where all the presents came from at Christmas time and birthdays on thesalary of a data entry clerk with all those mouths to feed came from I allnever know. She worked on through it all, a chronically ill daughter withasthma and assorted complications so bad Johns Hopkins Doctors made a careerof studying her case, a son with a wild streak who fought and stole, in and
associate the all around great guy I am today with this misguided waywardyouth).She worked until eventual retirement as highly placed computer expertfor the State of Maryland Judicial system, just in time for my stepfather toslip into Parkinson’s related dementia. She cared for him as well until hedied. She is a woman of fierce determination and strength. I don’t know howin the hell she did it but all four of us are still here, and even when wedon’t thrive, we survive. She passed much onto her children, the chiefquality being that I cannot imagine one of us going quietly anywhere, muchless the good night.I am thankful for books, my loyal companion and friend for many a lazyafternoon and many a dark night. Without my deep love for reading andlearning I am still a dishwasher and fry cook living on the back edges ofBaltimore. Books taught me to want, to dream, and then provided me theknowledge and skill to chase down those dreams and desires. My small condois crammed with books. The garage would make a librarian swoon with desire.Much of who I am and what I have comes from books. One of my earliestmemories was Mom taking us all to the bookmobile when it came to the localgrocery store and loading up on books. The staff of the bookmobile hated us.They way my mom, sisters and I read meant the inventory had to be replacedmore often than any other bookmobile in service. Mom never edited ourchoices. Hemingway, dick Gregory, hunter Thompson, the Illiad,malcom x,Faulkner…I read them all before junior high(Harold robbins too but I alwayschecked those out when she wasn’t looking). Mom didn’t care what we read aslong as we read.I am thankful for music, that backdrop of our lives.For Mozart andBeethoven, for Johnny cash and merle haggard, for jimmy buffet and jerryJeff walker, for guns and roses and motley crue, muddy waters, pinetop",1]
);
//-->
out of juvie facilities(yes that was me in case you find it as so many do toassociate the all around great guy I am today with this misguided waywardyouth).She worked until eventual retirement as highly placed computer expertfor the State of Maryland Judicial system, just in time for my stepfather toslip into Parkinson’s related dementia. She cared for him as well until hedied. She is a woman of fierce determination and strength. I don’t know howin the hell she did it but all four of us are still here, and even when wedon’t thrive, we survive. She passed much onto her children, the chiefquality being that I cannot imagine one of us going quietly anywhere, muchless the good night.I am thankful for books, my loyal companion and friend for many a lazyafternoon and many a dark night. Without my deep love for reading andlearning I am still a dishwasher and fry cook living on the back edges ofBaltimore. Books taught me to want, to dream, and then provided me theknowledge and skill to chase down those dreams and desires. My small condois crammed with books. The garage would make a librarian swoon with desire.Much of who I am and what I have comes from books. One of my earliestmemories was Mom taking us all to the bookmobile when it came to the localgrocery store and loading up on books. The staff of the bookmobile hated us.They way my mom, sisters and I read meant the inventory had to be replacedmore often than any other bookmobile in service. Mom never edited ourchoices. Hemingway, dick Gregory, hunter Thompson, the Illiad,malcom x,Faulkner…I read them all before junior high(Harold robbins too but I alwayschecked those out when she wasn’t looking). Mom didn’t care what we read aslong as we read.I am thankful for music, that backdrop of our lives.For Mozart andBeethoven, for Johnny cash and merle haggard, for jimmy buffet and jerryJeff walker, for guns and roses and motley crue, muddy waters, pinetop
and frank sinatra,waylon Jennings and david allan coe, handel and vivaldi Ihave cried bitter tears to a backdrop of sad music, celebrated victories toraucous rock and roll, romanced to the strains of water music, danced thenight away to hot blues, and reflected life’s mysteries to sweet rollingwaves of jazz. It has been a constant of my life and I cannot imagine lifewithout the ongoing soundtrack.I am as always grateful for the spec list and the chance to grow and learnthat my 5 years here have offered. I have learned much, grown much andprofited in more ways than can be explained form my participation in thisunique experience. Each of you have added to my base of knowledge andunderstanding and I am truly grateful.I am grateful for:James lackey, the wild free spirited kerouac of the list. The day trading,drag racing, tank driver, he would be dead in a fiery explosion while tryingto simultaneously race at 200 ph and day trade the spooz without thegentling touch of his wonderful wife Jennifer. A post from lackey is like aChristmas present. To sit and talk with him and his beautiful bride givesone a glimpse at life’s possibilities.Fred Crossman, the irascible opinionated Chicagoan who has become a fastfriend and partner, for all the shared nights we ll never remember withfriends we will never forgetFor Rush Street, 5th Avenue and the Vegas stripFor ed gross, the trader nee poker player who has taken all the chances Iwished I had when I was younger and made them work for him. Were I as smartand good looking as him I would own the damn world. We talk several times aweek and its like a glimpse at an alternative lifeDock bars and fast boatsFor Jason Thompson, he of lumbering grace and amazing intellect. I lookforward to spending time with Jason as I always walk away smarter and",1]
);
//-->
perkins and john lee hooker, for miles davis and john coltrane, cole porterand frank sinatra,waylon Jennings and david allan coe, handel and vivaldi Ihave cried bitter tears to a backdrop of sad music, celebrated victories toraucous rock and roll, romanced to the strains of water music, danced thenight away to hot blues, and reflected life’s mysteries to sweet rollingwaves of jazz. It has been a constant of my life and I cannot imagine lifewithout the ongoing soundtrack.I am as always grateful for the spec list and the chance to grow and learnthat my 5 years here have offered. I have learned much, grown much andprofited in more ways than can be explained form my participation in thisunique experience. Each of you have added to my base of knowledge andunderstanding and I am truly grateful.I am grateful for:James lackey, the wild free spirited kerouac of the list. The day trading,drag racing, tank driver, he would be dead in a fiery explosion while tryingto simultaneously race at 200 ph and day trade the spooz without thegentling touch of his wonderful wife Jennifer. A post from lackey is like aChristmas present. To sit and talk with him and his beautiful bride givesone a glimpse at life’s possibilities.Fred Crossman, the irascible opinionated Chicagoan who has become a fastfriend and partner, for all the shared nights we ll never remember withfriends we will never forgetFor Rush Street, 5th Avenue and the Vegas stripFor ed gross, the trader nee poker player who has taken all the chances Iwished I had when I was younger and made them work for him. Were I as smartand good looking as him I would own the damn world. We talk several times aweek and its like a glimpse at an alternative lifeDock bars and fast boatsFor Jason Thompson, he of lumbering grace and amazing intellect. I lookforward to spending time with Jason as I always walk away smarter and
above himself gives me hope.Rainy nights and good brandyFor the Cheesehead by way of Cincinnati for reminding me at times themeaning of friendship and thatall life’s obstacles merely hide yet anotherchance for love and redemption.For Kris rock. One rarely thinks of kris and subtle in the same breath untilyou realize that his tirades and attacks have made you rethink, defend andremake your own thoughts and conclusions for the better.Steamed crabs and afternoon baseballFor Kevin Depew with his gamblers mind and graceful southern attitude. Onecannot spend a more delightful and entertaining time than in kevins companyat a Kentucky racetrack..unless his delightful wife Lila comes along.thenone approaches perfection in the dayFor all of you who lose to me so gracefully in spec list fantasy baseballeach year…For Kim zussman and his relentless though provoking research and elegantwayscolleg football and the resurgence of Notre dameKen Smith and his occasional reality checkthe armed forces of the US who gained and preserve my freedomsRoss Miller and his intellectual exuberancegood wine and better scotchThe voodoo prof for his intellect and sense of markets,economic and barbequeTom Ryan for his gracious friendship and excellent taste in whiskey. Tom andI usually only talk when one of us in crisi..then we re the first number weeach dial. A gentleman,scholar and true friendChesapeake bay sunsetsFor the current incantation of the one true love of my life who doesn’t giveup no matter what dumb ass stunt I pullFor the wizz with his sharp mind and razor wit. The scholar, mathematicianand trader whose staggering brain power hides a shared loved of pulp novelswith short barreled 38’s and long legged dames, back alleys and hip flasks",1]
);
//-->
smiling. One cannot ask more from a friend. The fact that he married so farabove himself gives me hope.Rainy nights and good brandyFor the Cheesehead by way of Cincinnati for reminding me at times themeaning of friendship and thatall life’s obstacles merely hide yet anotherchance for love and redemption.For Kris rock. One rarely thinks of kris and subtle in the same breath untilyou realize that his tirades and attacks have made you rethink, defend andremake your own thoughts and conclusions for the better.Steamed crabs and afternoon baseballFor Kevin Depew with his gamblers mind and graceful southern attitude. Onecannot spend a more delightful and entertaining time than in kevins companyat a Kentucky racetrack..unless his delightful wife Lila comes along.thenone approaches perfection in the dayFor all of you who lose to me so gracefully in spec list fantasy baseballeach year…For Kim zussman and his relentless though provoking research and elegantwayscolleg football and the resurgence of Notre dameKen Smith and his occasional reality checkthe armed forces of the US who gained and preserve my freedomsRoss Miller and his intellectual exuberancegood wine and better scotchThe voodoo prof for his intellect and sense of markets,economic and barbequeTom Ryan for his gracious friendship and excellent taste in whiskey. Tom andI usually only talk when one of us in crisi..then we re the first number weeach dial. A gentleman,scholar and true friendChesapeake bay sunsetsFor the current incantation of the one true love of my life who doesn’t giveup no matter what dumb ass stunt I pullFor the wizz with his sharp mind and razor wit. The scholar, mathematicianand trader whose staggering brain power hides a shared loved of pulp novelswith short barreled 38’s and long legged dames, back alleys and hip flasks
Victor, first for creating this list, and for allowing me to be a part ofthis great community of minds. He has offered me access to ideas andphilosophies that have made my life better, my mind stronger and eventhickened my wallet. He has done more for me than time or space allow and inspite of our many differences has proven himself a friend of the highestorder on more than one occasion. His generosity of spirit and intellect isunlike any I have ever seen before. His story alone, of success, defeat andcomeback is inspiration enough. The fact that he has allowed me to walk inthe company of giants such as those found on the list leaves me speechlessin gratitude.For all those who I have not mentioned. All of you who shared ideas, shareddrinks, baseball games, football games, long talks, research reports,sportsthoughts,poker lessons arguments discussions,scholarly papers, jokes,smiles,hearts and minds. Each of you who takes the time to post your ideas,no matter how much I disagree with them. To all my spec list friends andacquaintances I say happy Thanksgiving.I raise my glass to all of you and to all the possibilities life offers.",0]
);
//-->
Victor, first for creating this list, and for allowing me to be a part ofthis great community of minds. He has offered me access to ideas andphilosophies that have made my life better, my mind stronger and eventhickened my wallet. He has done more for me than time or space allow and inspite of our many differences has proven himself a friend of the highestorder on more than one occasion. His generosity of spirit and intellect isunlike any I have ever seen before. His story alone, of success, defeat andcomeback is inspiration enough. The fact that he has allowed me to walk inthe company of giants such as those found on the list leaves me speechlessin gratitude.For all those who I have not mentioned. All of you who shared ideas, shareddrinks, baseball games, football games, long talks, research reports,sportsthoughts,poker lessons arguments discussions,scholarly papers, jokes,smiles,hearts and minds. Each of you who takes the time to post your ideas,no matter how much I disagree with them. To all my spec list friends andacquaintances I say happy Thanksgiving.I raise my glass to all of you and to all the possibilities life offers

monday

still well defined range on intermediate and long term of 1180 low,1260 high

short term range very,very tight at 1248-52. looking for a pullback in near term despite todays up move. we re due for a sell off of at least a small order

morning look

short term1225 to 1250
mif term 1175-1250
long term same

lot of stength this am on news of csco takeover of sfa and hpq earnings..tech very strong going into weekend

a look at the option spread trades I was tracking to see how well the method worked

jakk and bks expired worthelss..kept .75 credit on jakk, .55 on bks

would be long intc at 26.50,gps at 19.50 ,cce at 21.50 likely put hele at 19 this week..undewater on everything put but all rallying currently...

need to write puts for much longer than front month for approach to to be valid I think

mkt crashed through short term range top today.. will be interesting to se am work to see how this sets up tomorrow.would have exited trades at 36-37 area.. a nice 9 point gain from yesterday but a good 4 points shy of the close level

nov 17

yesterday a nice little rally off open,settled back into mid range but buying at the open would have been a good trade...nothing changed as far as 9intermediate/long term...caution called for and would be looking to sell calls or ust take profits

today


short term 1227-1236
intermediated 1175-1250
long term 1175-1250

note that ranges are lowering and volatility is not helping here..need a spike over 16 in the vix to show any type of buying opportunity

morning look

short term//
low end 1230 high end1238...be long the open

mid term 1170 low, 1250 high...much closer to high end, caution needed..look to sell calss, take profits in individual stock posiitons

long term..low end1080, high 1270..ditto above
oil lower, bonds higher,low inflation numbers, record high in foreign purchasing of us secuties,volatility at low end of range.

fairly positive backdrop for the day so far

morning look

the stock market

Should be closed today. It’s Veterans Day. In November of 1954.the Congress of the United States and then President Dwight Eisenhower passed legislation changing Armistice Day to veterans Day, day set aside to remember and recall the millions of American men and women who served in the armed forces of the United States of America. Banks are closed, schools are closed and in yet another example of the bond market being smarter than the stock market, the bond market is closed to honor the sacrifice of our veterans. The stock market however is open.

We close on new years day, to celebrate the flipping of a calendar page, nurse our hangovers and watch football. Is this flip of a page and college bowl game extravaganza more important or central to our way of life than the men who stood on the green at Concord and Lexington, filled musket barrel with trembling fingers as the crouched behind the barrier on bunker hill as the British came ever closer? Is the need to reflect on the passage of time and set resolutions we will break by weeks end more important then those who crossed the Delaware with Washington or those who survived the long endless winter of Valley Forge? I don’t think so but we re closed on new years day.

We are closed on Martin Luther Kings birthday. There is no denying the Rev. Kings important contributions to the civil rights movement in the United States. But is honoring his achievements and sacrifice more important than honoring those who charged the low stone wall at Fredericksburg and were cut down in row after bloody row? Is it more important to honor one man than the thousands who endured the hellish cross fire and tangled underbrush of the wilderness? More important the honoring those who out of ammunition wheeled downhill and charged to break up the confederate attempt to flank the union army at Gettysburg and turned the tide of the war? More important than the Irish Brigade perhaps, who endured Bloody lane at Antietnam, the wheat field at Gettysburg and charged into the murderous guns of Maryes Heights at Fredericksburg? Than the thousands who served the Union Army from first Bull Run to Appomattox? I don’t think so but we re closed on Rev Kings Birthday.

We re closed on Presidents day. There is no mistaking the contributions of the men who have led our great nation. But are they as individuals, more deserving of a holiday than the millions of men and women who they have ordered into battle in such strange places as Chapultepec and Bayamo? More important to honor the leaders who set safe in Washington while young men and women sailed to Cuba  the phillipines, china and Tripoli on their orders?I don’t think so but we re closed on Presidents day.

We re closed on good Friday, a religious holiday not celebrated by the entire populace of the United States. Is it more important to honor one faith when how many thousands of Jews,hindu, Buddhists, followers of the old native american gods, and yes even Muslims have gone to such places as Belleau Wood,the Argonne forest and Montfaucon? I don’t think so but we re closed on Good Friday.

Memorial Day we re closed.As we should be to honor those veterans who gave the ultimate sacrifice and lay down their very lives in defense of their nation. But isn't it equally important to honor those who survived the agonizing defeat at pearl harbor, the blazing sea and sky battles of midway, climbed the beach barriers at Tarawa, slogged the valleys of the canal against a deeply entrenched and desperate foe, the marines who partook in the daring raid of the Makin Atoll, the sailors who survived and carry scars from Leyte gulf, the Philippines and the china sea. I think so but we re not closed on Veterans Day to honor the brave survivors who defended our nation.

Ditto on Independence Day. But is it more important to recall the reading of the document that gave birth to our nation in the sweltering July Heat of 1776 than to recognize all those who have kept her free since then? Is it more important to celebrate the start of the nation than those who stormed the beaches of Normandy under the guns of the Nazis, who marched up Sicily , or those who were massacred at Malemdy, or were encircled at Bastogne? It is important to honor the birth of our nation and the bravery and wisdom of our founding father but isn't it as important to recall those who fought to keep us a free nation in places such as Casablanca, Algiers and the Kassarine Pass? I think so but the market is open on Veterans Day.

We re closed on Labor Day to honor those who toil and use the skills and sweat to build the American Economy. But is that more important to honor their labor than those who have preserved their right to work by storming ashore at Inchon, who fought and captured Pyongyang, or endured the merciless cold and Chinese swarms at the Chosin reservoir, or those who endured the long icy retreat.I don’t think so but we re closed on labor day.

We re closed on Thanksgiving, and it is good for to pause and reflect all the good things we have because we live in a free democratic nation.I love thanksgiving. Mountains of food, oceans of wine, football, and no need to buy anyone a gift. It is one of my favorite holidays. But it it more important than honoring those who served that nation in such exotic places as Da Nang or Quang Ngai Province orKhe Sang? More important than remembering those who were sent out on patrol through the dense dank jungle knowing that ambush and sneak attack by a determined foe was likely before the daylight returned, or those who served at forward fire bases under constant attack and in permanent danger of being overrun by the VC or NVA? More important than recalling the bravery of the pilots who were shot down and spent years in hellish prison cells or even bamboo cages,suffering deprivation and even the cruelest forms of torture? I don’t think so but we re closed on thanksgiving.

We re closed on Christmas as well. We close to celebrate the birth of a god not every American believes in but I do recognize that the Judeo-Christian ethic runs deeply through the United Sates but is this day more important than those who have fought through the decades to preserve our religious freedom, both on our soil to repel the British and secure our freedom, to preserve the union in a nightmarish brother versus brother, the hideous Civil War, expanded the young nation across the great plains and into the west, protected us in two terrible foreign wars against dictators and fascists, who served where sent on two controversial campaigns against the specter of communism  or protected our allies and energy supplies in two gulf wars? Is Santa Claus more important than men like James Lackey, exhausted, dirty with mouth and ears full of sand driving his tank across the sands of Iraq  or the thousands there today in Fallujah and Iraq who leave the compound each day on patrol, putting on their armor and choking back mouth drying, bladder spasming  fear to face the terrorists in the streets of Baghdad. I don’t think so but we re closed on Christmas.

In our nations history, millions of men and women have entered out nations armed forces. They have many reasons to do so, some out of real patriotism, some because of lack of opportunity, and more than a few to escape jail time for some misdemeanor given the choice by small town judges across America. Some hope to do four years and move on, or accumulate enough for college and move on, some do the full 20-25 years and make the Military a life and a career.Some are sent to war,others serve in such exotic, interesting places as Fort Huachuca, Az, The DMZ in Korea,Yuma Arizona or perhaps fun filled White Sands new Mexico. They are young men and women who leave hearth and home for a wide variety of reason but for one unified purpose..To defend the United States of American and all of our rights and freedoms. We close the stock Exchange for political and religious reason and there is nothing wrong with that but is it more important than the young people staring across the fence at Guantanamo Bay, or those young men and women who give up ivy league educations and top flight careers to enter the brigade, the long grey line or another of our nations service Academies? Is it more important to honor these occasions than to honor those on the wind swept plains of Kansas guarding our prisons and enemies at fort Leavenworth? Are any of these more important than honoring our military, from the join chiefs of staff down to the newest recruit? I don’t think so but the stock market is open on Veterans Day.

All good posts must, of course always have stats and numbers. Can’t leave those out.


Civil War, Union Army 360,222 dead,275 174 wounded
WW One 58,480 dead, 189955 wounded
WW two 300,000 dead, 300,000 wounded
Korean Conflict 33686 dead 103284 wounded
Vietnam 58156 dead,303704 wounded 2338 MIA
First Gulf War 293 dead, 1000 wounded
Current conflict, 200 dead and counting
Number of us military Veterans 24.5 million
Current active duty US Military 1.5 million

But the stock market is open on Veterans Day.

update and add

jakk expired and bks trades working nicely..gap coming back in as it acclerates below 17.50,two expired ,

long intc and cce above mkt, jakk expired worthless.Had we done the intel trade out to october it would have been very profitable..more, not less time seem to be indicated in these trades

add
hele

sell one nov 20 2.85
buy two nov 17.5 1.1
.65 credit

weekend update

For the true sports junkie of the couch oriented variety, This past weekend came very close to nirvana. The last weekend of baseball season with at least 3 races going down to the very last game of the season. As I don’t really follow those fellows over in the fastball throwing sissy pitcher hitting league , I was focused very tightly on the d@@ned Yankees against those &^%*(*&^% get a haircut for gods sake reprobates and renegades from Boston as well as the how did they get in this Indians of Cleveland for the wild card slot. Two very good baseball games later the Yankees had won the division. Using the same sort of logic he uses to defend drawdowns to his investors trend following baseball maven declared the sox co-division champions even though under the rules, The Yanks had the title. Unfortunately for those of us who think Boston would make a lovely museum and should be uninhabited except by curators and tourists and under no circumstances should be allowed possession of something as dangerous as a major sports franchise, much less a winning one, Cleveland slid from sight quicker then crossman sliding down the back side of a rush street Saturday night.

Now, the baseball picture alone would have been enough to satisfy a sports fan. However just like a set of late night steak knives and food choppers for 19.95..but wait there’s more! College football all day and into late Saturday night. Maryland remembered how to actually play the game , much to the fat fridge’s satisfaction, Navy escaped duke with their first win of the season, Notre Dame continued to bask in the divine light of touchdown Jesus and thumped Purdue in a convincing fashion, Alabama beat Florida for the first time since the internet bubble and Joe Pat shut the critics and age phobic fans up for at least one more week. For a while there Saturday it was hard keeping up with all the highlights, pitch counts and point spreads as the tv went from station to station with an effect not unlike that of a strobe light. When finally dragged off the couch Saturday evening to go out by the current incantation, I innocently selected a dinner destination that had a big screen tv visible from the dining area. Perfect evening along the shores of the bay, we dined at the crab deck where to my delight I found the scallops broiled in sweet butter are the perfect accompaniment to Brady Quinn touch down passes. Those specs coming into town for the Navy game next week will be able to sample the decks wares for themselves, along with several other notable eateries as well as establishments of less than reputable distinction.

Which, of course, is where we went next. Now that the frenzy of bikini season is over and the hordes of bikers and sun drenched curio seekers has faded, Red Eye dock bar has once again become a locals joints with great wings and a spectacular view of the narrows..and television sets mounted all around the walls. As the sun faded into the night, casting a pink-purplish glow along the dancing waters speeding through the cut between Eastern bay and the Chester River. As we joined a few friends there and engaged in the partaking of light libations and held forth with deep intelligent discourse on the state of the world,politcs economics, interpersonal relationships deep into the night, I was able to sneak a few peaks at the screens to see Roy Jones JR prove that accepting a loss graciously is usually the start of a losing tradition and Glen Johnson reaffirm that even he doesn’t have a flashy name, he is one hell of a fighter. The quick downfall of Roy Jones is one of the more puzzling events in recent boxing history. After being an unbeatable near immortal with lightening speed and heart stopping power, he has suddenly become an average fighter of very limited skill. He called himself a true champion after the fight, saying that like the true champion he is, he may yet fight again. He’s 36 and looks to have lost enough of his skills to continue getting beat and tarnishing his for now hall of fame legacy. Be satisfied, Roy that you are among the legends of the sport but pay time its homage.

As the evening waned, the bar bill climbed and the days battles, clashes, fights, dramas, nail biters and must wins came to a close and the conversation reached new heights of barley inspired intellectual depth, I reflected that for a sports fan, it had been one of those rare perfect storms. Baseball in its waning glory of seasons end with the playoffs looming, the college ball season far enough long that games now had an ever-intensifying importance and several major fights all on the sameday..and a Sunday of NFL and Nascar looming.



Sunday, the ravens finally found someone they could beat..But then again beating the jets right now is a lot like mugging a cripple. Eli manning came into his own, his brother regained his form, Michael Vick continued his injury streak and Marvin Lewis demonstrated just how great a football coach he really has become. There were the usual plot twists, long gains, spectacular catches and all the violence and fury that is the NFL. But the real excitement Sunday was not in a football stadium but in the middle of Alabama at a place called Talladega. 43 cars, 800 horsepower engines restricted back to 500 using carburetor plates running in one big 190 mph pack. One mistake leads to catastrophe..And there lots of mistakes this Sunday. Cars were flipping, flying through the air, in one case doing a weird ballet spin on its nose down the front stretch. Bump drafting, tapping the guy in front of you to speed both of you up, is a science. The late Dale Earnhardt was a master, as is his on Dale JR ..Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart are pretty good at it. The young guns are perhaps not so good and the day was filled with some of the more incredible crashes in Nascar History. It was breathtaking, edge of the seat racing culminating by Dale jarret becoming the 4th oldest driver to win a NASCAR race. Simply a brilliant day of long passes and fast cars.

As I sat ruminating at the end of the day several thoughts flashed across my mind foremost being, Melvin you have got to get off this damn couch more and I’m low on scotch and smokes again. But there were several other thoughts worth pondering from a spec point of view as well.

Adversity does not become defeat until you allow it to so. The Yankees were horrible the first part of this year. Dale Jarred had not won a race in two years. The Indians were 10 games back at the All Star break and almost snuck into the playoffs. Notre Dame entered the season unranked. Joe Paterno was written off as an over the hill also ran. In every case they stuck to what they knew they could achieve and beat back the critics and the bad times to find victory.
Things change (ever changing cycles). To win, one must be prepared to change and adapt to conditions. The Yankees used 16 starting pitchers this year as they scrambled for the combination that worked. Bump drafting works on the straight-aways. In the corners it leads to 10 car accidents and airborne machinery. Conditions change. One must always be aware of this and continue to adapt ones style.
Just because you succeed at the lower levels does not mean you will achieve instant success. After a spectacular college career it took Eli Manning two miserable seasons of failure, futility and hard work to establish himself as a great quarterback. The very young Cleveland Indians team faded when it counted most, giving into a pressure they had never felt before under the September lights. A one lot trade who scores some winners does not necessarily have what it takes t o run a 100 million hedge fund, At each new level there’s is a learning curve that must be climbed through hard work and practice.
Winning is indeed a habit. Once you learn to lose with grace its difficult to win. The Yankees expected to come back and refused to accept they weren’t good enough. Notre Dame was written off after several sub par seasons. But the fans and administration knew they had a winning tradition to uphold and did what they had to in order to deliver a winning g program back to the school.
There are some things we cannot change and fighting that will lead to spending some serious time with your face on the canvas. At 36, your body changes enough that no matter how much you train or practice, you just don’t have it anymore. Jones Jr was one of the greatest fighters ever in my opinion. But he’s a tick slower and not quite as fast as he once was. Its time to quit. There will be times in your trading and investing career where fighting conditions that exist and cannot be changed. The hard part is recognizing those times and avoid becoming a Ray Leonard getting beat up by has beens and never weres.




To win you have to be able to play both sides of the ball. It is said that great defense wins football games. That’s only true if you offense is good enough to score. The Colts have had the best offense in football for several years, the Ravens the best defense. Defensive weakness on the part of the colts and the ravens horrific offense kept them from winning it all. Tony Dungy has figured that out and built a great defense to complement Peyton and the boys. Brian Billick has not. The Colts are 4 and 0, the Ravens lucky to have played the New York Cripples and escape with a win, are a terrible football team.


In between all of this I did manage to complete three books worth mentioning. School days, the new Robert parker continues the Spenser tradition. The last of the hard-boiled Private eyes, Spenser continues to be a tough, smart witty private eye as quick with a quip as a right cross. Probably no lessons for a lifetime but a great read as only Parker can write. EL Doctorows The march tells the tale of Sherman’s march to the Sea through the yes of soldiers, generals, fallen artistocrats, slaves and ner’do wells. If he had resisted the urge to bring all his characters together in one giant reunion of warriors, doctors, and conquerors and conquered this book would be an immortal classic. In spite of this one flaw it is a great read and one of the best civil war novels in some time. Last, Busting Vegas, the latest from Ben Mezrich is a great story of one of the MIT blackjack teams and the adventures, dangers and wins they faced along the way. Specs who like gambling books will like this offering.

One final lesson from the waning moments of the weekend. I finally got the call telling me my oldest friends father had lost his battle with pancreatic cancer. I spent many evenings and drank many martinis in his company and will miss him greatly. He was a man of grace, with style and achievement who worked hard and lived to his own standards and values. In his life I am sure there are many things to be learned but I have not enough space for that here. But in his passing he leaves one great lesson that is not reinforced often enough. Death comes to us all and in spite of our bravado few of us will embrace it willingly. Life is shorter than we realize and must be lived while we have it in such a manner to satisfy our souls. There is learning to be done, greatness to be achieved, books to be read, love to be made, obstacles to over come, friends to embrace, symphonies to be listened to in awe, rock and roll nights to be enjoyed with abandon. Life. One per customer.Make of it what you will.