Updates and Offers

I have mentioned before that I really am not a huge fan of all the marketing and promotion stuff that goes along with offering a newsletter service. Left to my own devices I would prefer to just hunker down in my little office and focus on research and managing the portfolios. I am something of a geek and   think that a day of finding and researching stocks followed by an evening with a good book, a bottle of wine and a ball game on in the background is pretty much a perfect day. But apparently all this comes with the territory so I want to take a minute to remind you of some things that are going on with the Tim Melvin portfolios.

Since June 6^th of this year when we introduced the newsletters and bought the first stock the S&P 500 is up about 9.44%. That’s pretty impressive in and of itself for a five month period. However our stocks are doing even better than that. 16 of our 26 stocks in the Deep Value Portfolio are up more than that.  We have had two companies receive takeover offers at higher than market prices and 6 or our stocks are up more than 25% already. We have also already had a takeover offer at more than a 50% premium in our bank stock portfolio already this year. Buying stocks at a significant discount to book value works and it works very well. The Deep value Portfolio currently averages about 70% of tangible book value and the Banking on Profits portfolio averages right around 80% of tangible book value.

We have been sending you some examples of past picks that have generated 50, 100 and even 200% gains over the past couple of years. My method does not involve trading in and out of stocks all day and trying to balance watching the markets while working or spending time with your family. It is based on buying business at good prices with a large margin of safety and letting time and economics take care of the rest. You have things that you need to do and want to do during the week and a bunch of time chasing electronic dots across the screen with some trading system might not be the best use of your time. Let me pick the best stocks for you to profit from as a long term investor and spend your time doing what is important to you.

I also have a strong focus on margin of safety. It is not enough to be cheap the business has to be safe with a strong credit and fundamental profile. We believe that to thrive you first have to survive. That spills over into my approach to the overall market as well. I am not a market timer but when times are bad and most folks are scared and selling there lots of bargains and I trend to be a buyer. When markets are strong as they are now opportunities are scarce and we tend to hold a lot of cash. Right now we have 40% cash in our Bank Stock portfolio and close to 70% in the Deep Value Portfolio.

Here is an example of how this non market timing approach has worked in anticipating past market corrections and crashes. Both of these comments come from the blog I kept at the time and are a matter of public record:

December 5, 2006

                “You might be able to sell me the fact that this market is fairly priced, providing I’ve been drinking heavily, but undervalued, I can’t see it. The bond market and the dollar are telling you it’s just not that good out there right now. We have rallied almost 12% since August without a real pause of any length and anybody who is not cautious now pretty much deserves what they get.”

April 1, 2008

                “Even if I am dead wrong here I think the risk of being fully committed to stocks carries too many risks for the idea of a margin of safety to exist. I am willing to miss this run up to protect capital. There appears to be very little common sense being used on Wall Street these days when it comes to the overall economic and financial matters, as well as a total lack of fear. Bottoms are accompanied by fear and loathing not cheerleading and bottom predictions. The bullish arguments are laughable.”

By the way we got back in pretty much at the lows because even though it looked like the world was ending stocks were cheap.

11-20-2008

As for the market itself there is a fortune to be made over the next several years. I see companies that are profitable trading for less than 3 times E/EBITDA. I see an ever growing list of companies that sell for less than cash in the bank. We are fast approaching the depths of an ugly bear market and there is money to be made.

March 14, 2009

                You can buy stocks like ADPT, TECD, and ESIO for less than the value of the company’s liquid assets. You can literally build a portfolio of 40-50 of these that have a good credit scores, viable businesses and excellent recovery prospects. That’s enough to make me salivate at the possibilities for gains over the next several years.

                DIS trade for about two thirds of my appraisal value. That is provided we give no value at all to the film library or character rights and price the parks as raw land and put a 5 multiple on after tax earnings .DELL trade for less than two cash. HTH is a pile of cash in the hands of a proven investor in distressed banks and other financials. As a bonus the company landed a back door bank charter and will be able to bid on distressed assets and institutions. Southwest Airlines is stupid cheap, trading below tangible book value. Oil service companies like RDC and PTEN trade below net asset value at these levels. I like the idea of buying the Forest City senior debentures at a 30% YTM and what looks to be more than adequate asset coverage.

Using my value approach can help you find stocks with outstanding long term returns. It will also help you avoid overheated markets that present the chance of a permanent loss of capital and have cash on hand to buy when we get to that point of maximum pessimism that offers the very best long term opportunities.

Thats my whole pitch folks. No fantastic claims just hard evidence that this works and can help you accomplish the two most important goals of a long term investors. First service and avoid grievous and permanent losses of capital. Second to find those stocks that offer the potential for returns measured in multiples rather than percentages of your initial purchase price.

I had my partners at Marketfy.com put together a couple of offers for you to start putting deep value investing to work for you. Check them out and pick the one that works best for you. I look forward to having you as part of the Deep Value family.

http://vip.marketfy.com/blogoffer/#lp-pom-text-79

Cheers  !

Tim Melvin

Betting Longshots and Turnarounds

I have frequently confessed a strong attraction for longshot stocks in the past. I like these stocks that are ridiculously out of favor and struggling to execute a turnaround. Most of my efforts are focused on safe and cheap stocks with the potential for high returns but I confess to having a few longshots around most of the time. I have advised my son and daughter that they should have an even higher percentage of these stocks in their portfolio than their old man does as the math is just too compelling.

Consider a portfolio of carefully selected long shots with the potential to triple in price over the next three to five years. If you are right about 40% of you selections and just average break even on the rest of the bundle you end up handily beating the markets historical returns. If it takes three years you end up averaging 21% and if stretched out to five you still have a compound annual return a little over 12%. A 30% win rate gives you a  return of between 8 and 14% depending on the time it takes to play out. With the application of a hardy dose of common sense and strong stomach for volatility the 40% win rate should not be difficult to achieve. It is the same mindset that makes private equity and distressed investing so successful.

If you look at the stock I identified as longshots in the second half of 2011 and all of 2012 there were 25 names on the list. 22 of the stock are higher although admittedly with a boost form a strong stock market. The biggest loser is my old nemesis Hampton Roads Bancorp (HMPR) with a nice loss of almost 80%. The biggest winner is Cemex (CX) with a tidy 200% return already. More importantly taken as a group the package of stock is up more than 80% over just an 18 month time frame. I have not graded out 2013s long shots yet but we have already seen some big winners in stocks like Cumulus Media (CMLS) and Cowen Group (COWN) that were long shot portfolio suggestions.

One way of searching for long shots is to set some of my traditional metrics aside and simply look for companies with higher leverage that I normally accept that also have high Piotroski F scores indicating improving fundamentals. I then cut that list down to companies that have tumbled into single digits and have a long way to climb if management is successful in turning the business around.

Skilled Healthcare Group (SKH) operates skilled nursing facilities, assisted living facilities, hospices, home health providers, and a rehabilitation therapy business. This used to be a $14 stock but now fetches less than $5. The stock was over $7 back in July but missed analyst forecasts for earnings and revenue and investors dumped the stock aggressively. The debt to equity ratio is a a daunting 400% but the company does have an F-score of 7 indicating fundamental improvements are taking place and not being recognized by Wall Street just yet. At the first sign of good news this stock could begin a climb back in the direction of the old highs.

Alaska Communications Group Company (ALSK) provides integrated communications services to consumer and business customers in and out of Alaska. The Company's wireline and wireless communications networks extend throughout Alaska. The company recently announced new broadband capabilities for businesses that should help drive future growth. The new service will be rolled out shortly in the Anchorage area and introduced to the rest of the state over the next few years.  Five years ago this stock traded for more than $10 a share and just halfway back to that level would be a huge return. They carry a high debt load with a debt to equity ratio of 500% but the F-score is an impressive 8 indicating better times ahead for the company and hopefully the stock.

Although I do run screens looking for long shots my favorite way is to simply sit down with the new issue of Value Line and electronically thumb through the issue looking for stock with enormous upside potential over the three to five year time frame I find most effective. The list of stock that have performed poorly in the last quarter and those with the highest three to five year appreciation potential as calculated by the research service have been particularly fertile hunting grounds over the years. The longshot and turnaround portfolio break form some of my basic valuation tenets and are more of a distressed/private equity view of certain stocks. This approach suits my son more than it does me at this point in my life but I have an affinity for having a few of these in my personal accounts.

Looking at the list today I see that a few of my recent longshot picks from earlier this year still make the grade. I am a huge fan of both McDermott (MDR) ACCO Brands (ACCO) and Amkor Technologies (AMKR) still make the grade. I am big fan of all three of these issues and am very hopeful that the politicians will gum things up for a few more days and panic the market. I would love to have all three of these in my classic value portfolios and they don’t need to fall that far to trade at a healthy discount to book value.

Central Pet and Garden (CENT) makes the grade as a turnaround as well. The company has seen its share price plummet from over $18 pre-crisis to a little over $7 today. The company has been struggling to get its act together and saw earnings fall again last quarter and the stock was further punished by disappointed investors. The company has turned its attention to cost controls and that should help improve the bottom line. They have already reduced headcount once and may have to do so again before its all said and done.

Unless suburbs suddenly disappear the company will have a market place for their lawn and garden supplies, seeds and insecticides. Most of their revenue actually comes from the pet side of the business with products like treats, toys and animal health products. Many people I know, including my wife, would take care of their pets before themselves so that should remain a solid market for the company as well. With a little attention to costs and margins this stock should have no trouble getting back near the highs in a stronger economy.

Golar LNG (GLNG) is a little higher priced than y usual longshot picks but this stock appears to have enormous upside.I t is involved in the acquisition, ownership, operation, and chartering of LNG carriers and floating storage regasification units and the development of LNG projects. Currently the company owns six LNG carriers and operates Golar LNG Partner LP's fleet of seven LNG carriers and floating units. LNG rates have slipped this year as a result of delays and plant outages and the company actually took two vessels out of service in the second quarter rather than pay the costs of operation. The company is expanding their fleet and other shippers are rushing to get into the LNG business so there may be some excess LNG shipping capacity next year but this is eventually going to be a rapidly growing industry and Golar is positioned to be a leader.

The outlook for the floating storage and regasification units is strong right now. Golar commences a new contract in Jordan during 2015 and is considering converting older vessels to FSRU platforms to meet the growing demand. This stock could easily triple as the LNG industry continues to expand. You get paid to wait with this stock as the shares are yield 5.1% at the current price.

Before moving on from Value Line and the search for longshots with an above average chance of success over the 3 to 5 year time frame these investments usually need to work I like to go to amore familiar section of the weekly edition. Each week the venerable research service publishes a list of stock trading with the widest discounts from book value. While they use sated book and not my preferred tangible book value I find that the list has been an excellent source of stock ideas with longshot potential for a return of several times the initial purchase amount over time. This week’s list did not disappoint and there were several stocks worthy of further consideration.

FUJIFILM Holdings  (FUJIY)has suffered over the past few years as the film and camera business became a buggy whip business. No matter how good the products might be the demand for regular photographic supplies is disappearing as photography moves into the digital world. The company has taken steps to diversify the business and now offers products for the medical imaging markets, optical devices and office equipment. They own 75% of Fuji Xerox and have been developing export markets in other Asian nations for these products. They have restructured their basic photography related businesses and are migrating more towards higher end digital cameras in an effort to slow losses from that product line. It will take some time to get the ship fully righted but there is more than enough potential upside in the stock to justify waiting. The shares trade at just 50% of book value and cold easily double or more over the next few years.

Atlantic Power (AT) is a stock that will either be a big hero or a large zero. The stock trades at about 25% of its 2011 after a weak economy pressured the highly leverage power generator and they were forced ot cut the dividend payout. Even after slashing the payout by 66% the yield at the much lower price is still fairly enticing as the stock yields 8% at todays price. They were able to turn a profit in the second quarter to the surprise of many analysts and the stock has moved op off the lows but us still very cheap. Management is committed to paying down debt and reduced its debt load by $172 million in the second quarter. They are also looking to sell assets considered noncore operation and will use the cash form these efforts to further reduce the debt burden. If the restructuring and turnaround plans are successful this stock could easily double or more over the next few years.

Aircastle Limited (AYR) is in the aircraft leasing business and currently y has a fleet of 158 aircraft. The fleet has a utilization rate of 98% with a portfolio yield of more than 13% so business is pretty good for the company right now. They have been disposing of older aircraft and upgrading he fleet in in 2013. They have sold 11 aircraft so far and spent more than $960 million on new planes. The comonay also recently sold a little more than 15% of the company to Marubeni , Japanese trading company. Aircastle CEO Ron Wainshal said of the deal that “We're extremely pleased to welcome Marubeni as an important new strategic shareholder. Marubeni brings a long-term, globally minded perspective to our business and we believe there are exciting business opportunities for us as we work together."   The stock is cheap at just 81% of book value and the shares sport a yield of 3.7% at the current price. This was the 29^th consecutive quarter of dividend payments by the firm. The company is also buying back stock and since 2011 have repurchased 11.7 million shares and still have $30 million to spend under the current buyback plan. Patient investors could collect a nice yield and see the stock double over the next five years.

Investors should spend more time looking for longshots and turnarounds that they do trying to trade the news or predict market direction. Both strike me a futile exercises and are a significant part of the reasons individuals tend to under perform the market.Investing in turnarounds and longshots may not be for many investors but it probably should be. Although the short term volatility of the share prices can be daunting investing in these stocks forces investors to adopt what I call a private equity mind set. By viewing the potential return five years out and not worrying so much about the daily trading of the companies they own most investors would see a substantial increase in their portfolio value Not all longshots work out. However it has been my experience that if you use a little common sense and look for decent companies simply dealing with a rough patch more than you might think work out very nicely indeed. Patient aggressive investing in stocks with significant upside potential should prove to be a far more profitable exercise.

Uncommon Common Sense

If you are like me your email inbox gets a lot of those oh so enticing offers promising instant stock trading profits in just 15 minutes a day and endless stock promotions. I spend a lot of time visiting financial sits on the web kicking over rocks in search of ides so it is no surprise that I end up on many of these mailing lists. What is surprising to me is that many of these firms have been in business for some time so apparently people are spending money to become the next Stevie Cohen or George Soros between dinner and dessert.  Folks must be buying those stocks that will benefit from the looming crisis or loading up on those $.10 stocks with breakthrough technology that will change the world.

It must seem silly for me to say this since write for a subscription service but there is a huge difference between advice and hucksterism. The guys and gals on Real Money share their thoughts, ideas and the trades they make with their own money which is light years away from Five Stocks to Buy if the Government Shuts Down , or Six Stocks to Sell If The President Trips On The Way to the Podium.

We need to see a healthy dose of common sense applied when it comes to trading and investing our money. There is no magical system that will make you risk free millions in just minutes a day. When you open the account and decide you will make your living trading stocks or forex in your spare time you are stepping into someone else’s arena and odds are you are mere lunch money. I have done a lot of work on trader survival rates and returns of late and you have a better chance of beating Lebron James in a one on one basketball game than you do of being a consistently profitable trader in your spare time. When I talk to successful traders like Tim Collins, Bob Lang or Bob Bryne they are always working to define and refine their edge. You are up against the best minds armed with the best technology and you have a better chance of earning outsized profits betting a hard 8 every roll at the craps table.

The other area where I see any illusion of common sense thrown out the window is this idea that we can somehow predict where the market is going and book huge profits in the process. Predicting the market sis an absolute waste of time and the lucky ones who get a call right are then usually wrong for the next several dozen predictions. We make stars out of folks like Elaine Garzarelli and the Joe Granville for a lucky coin flip and spent a long time paying for that mistake. The economic, financial and psychological stews that are the financial markets are impossible for anyone to predict with any sustained accuracy.

Big money is made in the stock market by reacting to what the markets do, not in predicting their future movements. If you look at the most successful investors they made their biggest returns by buying when markets were ridiculously undervalued or hopele4ssly overpriced. Investors like Jon Paulson and Michael Burry didn’t sell subprime mortgages because of a chart pattern or trading system. They made billions because they correctly recognized that the securities traded at price will beyond their true value. The markets went against them for a while but they held on until the process inevitably corrected themselves.

Investors like Wilber Ross, Warren Buffett and Howard marks did not get rich by predicting the direction of the stock market. They did it by buying assets they were egregiously undervalued and held them until the market entered another euphoric stage and selling them to over excited traders and investors. They are far more active when the markets are crashing down around our ears and everyone else was panicking. They bought assets and earnings cheaply by acting as the buyer of last resort for scared sellers. They got rich by applying common sense to the markets and waiting for a chance to react rather than predict.

I have no idea what the market will do in a reaction to a government shutdown. I do know that the best way to lose some serious coin here is to try and predict the outcome and the market’s reaction. Common sense tells me that if the markets react negatively we could sell some bargains created. In the long term the shutdown has no real impact on the future of my small bank and cheap stock so I would be foolish to rush to sell.

As investors we need to apply common sense to the markets and quit chasing impossible pipe dreams. Charlie Munger once attributed his success to the fact that he acted rationally when other did not. We need to do the same.

http://www.marketfy.com/store/item/the-tim-melvin-deep-value-letter/preview/

Investing Michigan Style

As I have mentioned in the past I am something of a geek. Once I finished running stock screens and checking the stocks in my portfolio for any important fundamental changes I turned to serving business school websites for interesting new papers or research article that might contain significant information that would help us as investors. I found a few on interest and will report back on them after I have digested them but at the University Of Michigan Webster School Of Business I found something that interested me greatly and should you as well. They are running two portfolios that are posted on the website identifying stocks that are undervalued and another one that lists what they call earnings torpedoes.

Earnings torpedoes are stocks that the students have identified as having the potential to blow up as a result of poor earnings. They use academic theories such as earnings quality, cash flows, momentum and valuation to identify stocks that could be set to sink your portfolio.  I checked through the historical lists they keep on the site and the theory actually worked very well at finding potential disasters and torpedoes underperform the market much of the time. I have mentioned more than few times I am cautious about the markets and sometimes the best way to make money is to lose it so the list is worth a review to see where danger may lurk.

The list is littered with energy related Mater Limited Partnerships (MLPs). Many of these oil and gas collection, transmission and storage partnerships have been bid up to very high levels as a result of strong oil prices and indiscriminate yield seeking by investors. Billions of dollars have flooded into the sector as ETFs and funds were formed to take advantage of the higher yields offered by these vehicles. Some of the better known MLPs that are potential torpedo stocks include Atlas Resource Partners (ARP),Atlas Energy (ATLS),  Cheniere Energy Partners (CQP) and Eagle Rock Energy Partner (EROC). Investors who own these names may want to review their holdings and consider lightening up on the shares.

The list is absolutely dominated by small cap biotech stocks.  50% of the list is biotech’s like ARIAD(ARIA), VIVVUS (VVUS) and  Idenix Pharmaceuticals (IDIX). Biotech has been red hot this year with the industry indexes and ETFs up more than 30% but investors might want to get some money off the table. I have ling maintained that this is an incredibly specialized filed and if you don’t possess, or have an advisor who possesses, a medical degree with a biotech concentration, small biotech’s are a danger zone for individual investors. Using traditional fundamental or technical analysis techniques on these stocks is a game of financial Russian Roulette in my opinion. If you own individual small biotech’s it is worth your time to go the schools website and see if you are hanging on to a potential torpedo stocks.

There are some big market darlings on the list that momentum investors need to be aware of before you take a torpedo amidships to your net worth. Salesforce.com has shown up on several of my red flag lists in recent weeks even as the stock has run higher in recent weeks. With a forward earnings estimate multiple of 100 times the slightest disappointment form this company is going to cause an implosion in the share price and all but the most nimble of traders should probably avoid the stock at this level. Zillow (Z) is another trader favorite that has had a nice run as housing markets have recovered somewhat but it is now on the danger list. At more than 150 times estimated profits it would not take much bad news to explode the stock and your portfolio along with it.

It is worth your time to check out the torpedo list on the Webster Business school site. Even if you decide you do not agree with them on certain stocks or sectors it is thought provoking and educational. Next I will take a look at the stocks the students have identified as undervalued and see if we can find any potential gems to buy.

. The folks at University of Michigan Webster School of Business not only has a list of stocks you should avoid they have one that gives you 40 stocks they think are undervalued. They do not reveal exactly which metrics they use but the website says they use Value, Momentum, Quality and Predictability. It is a combination of several of the more successful academic theories and it producers a really interesting list of stocks that might appeal to ling term investors. According to the site the screen has beaten the market handily in 8 of the last 10 years.

It is easy to see that momentum and value are heavily weighted in the 40 stock list as many of them are former deep value stocks where the price has begun to improve. It was no that long ago that basset Furniture traded at a fraction of book value and was wildly out of favor on Wall Street. The company is firing on all cylinders now with three quarters in a row of strong sales growth and the stock is now at a small premium to book value. Insiders have been buying stock outright and exercising options and keeping the stock so that’s another academic theory at work in this stock. The company has plenty of cash and little debt and seems to have put the recession in the rear view window. Basset is doing much better than many other consumer related companies right now.

They have a few little banks as well which comes as no surprise to me at all. I will highlight two from opposite ends of the bank spectrum. Monarch  Financial Holdings (MNRK) is a little bank  with 11 banking offices, 15 residential mortgage offices, and 1 investment services office in the Norfolk /Virginia Beach area. It also operates 2 full-service banking offices and 2 residential mortgage offices in the Outer Banks of North Carolina, as well as 28 additional residential mortgage offices outside of its primary banking market area, The bank is in great shape with  nonperforming assets of .29% of all assets and an equity to assets ratio of more than 10. The stock trades at 1.2 times book value and has momentum on its side with the share up almost 40% this year.

Parke Bancorp (PKBK) is on the other end of the spectrum. The New Jersey bank has 6 offices in in its home state and one if the greater Philadelphia area and about $740 million of assets. The stock is much cheaper than Monarch at 75% of book value and there is a good reason. The loan portfolio is a mess with non-performing loans at more than 7% of total loans and nonperforming assets at a staggering 9% of total assets. They do have excess capital with equity to assets ratio of a little over 13 but asset quality has been slow to improve. This one has more a long shot feel to it but if they do succeed in getting their house in order the upside could be huge.

There are also lots of small insurance stocks on the list including one, Eastern Insurance Holdings (EIHI) that announced a takeover bid yesterday at a pretty big premium. This stock was one of my top picks for 2011 and has more than doubled thanks to the acquisition offer. This is going to be repeated throughout the industry over the next few years as smaller life and property and casualty insurance companies are very cheap compared to historical valuation level. It is worth your time to go to the schools site and run through the insurance picks stock by stock.

For fans of sin stocks Ricks Cabaret (RICK) makes the grade as a University of Michigan cheap stock. The only publicly traded operator of Gentleman’s Clubs. The stock trades at 12 times earnings and 1.27 times book value and business is apparently pretty good. The CEO and CFO like what they see as much as the customers as they have been buyers of the stock over the past few months.

Star Gas (SGU) makes the grade as well as this remains one of my favorite little long term income stocks. The propane company is not going to set anyone’s portfolio on fire but it will continue to roll up Mom and Pop propane dealers and pay a strong dividend. The stock yields 6.75% and is a good fit for most income investors in addition to the schools value stock list.

Tracking the academics makes a lot of sense to me. When they have proven they can outperform and are willing to publish their stock lists as Michigan has it makes even more sense to check the page regularly.

http://www.marketfy.com/store/item/the-tim-melvin-deep-value-letter/preview/

http://www.marketfy.com/store/item/banking-on-profit/preview/

Proven Performance and an Offer

I was going through my desk this morning looking for some research material I was using to set up my new International Deep Value Letter when I came across some print outs of articles I wrote in July 2012. I had used them as handouts at a business networking event and then just stuck them in desk drawer.

One was on the power of asset based investing and why it worked. I suggested buying 4 deeply undervalued stocks in an article called simply Asset Based Investing Works published on July 17, 2012. I suggested four stocks, an oil and gas driller, two banks and a staffing company. Had you purchased an equal dollar amount of all 4 your return through today's close would be 82% in a little over a year.

The second article was called Real Estate is the New Plastics published on July 31 of the same year. I suggested that 7 REITs were deeply undervalued based on the concepts used in deep value investing. If you put an equal dollar amount through today would be 41%. Not as good as the first article but not too shabby either.

Deep value investing works. It works very well and it works consistently though all sorts of different market conditions. I want to help use it to make you money over time.

In order to encourage you take the leap and put deep value to work making you outsized profits here is what I am going to do. If you sign up for my Deep Value letter this weekend I will give you $100 off . Instead of $499 I will let you have it for just $399 for the year. To add a little extra incentive if you join me today at the deep Value letter I will GIVE you a free year of the brand new International Deep Value letter just launched today. 

That’s what I call a deep value. Use this link to sign up.

https://marketfy.com/secure/checkout/the-tim-melvin-deep-value-letter/201/?coupon=valuevalue

Thanks .

Tim Melvin

Gross Profit, Great Gains

I have long held the opinion that for most investors the money is made on the edges. The two top performing strategies I have uncovered over the years are deep value and what I call real growth. Real growth companies are those that are growing revenues, earnings and the net value of the firm higher consistently over the years. It is basically an earnings momentum and growth strategy based on high profitability and management execution. As long time readers are aware I am a bit of a geek and spend a good amount of time reading academic research and I recently forum a paper that basically confirms my thoughts on this subject and brings some interesting new data and possibilities for individual investor.

Robert Novy-Marx is a professor at the University of Rochester and a fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research. His research efforts are spent studying asset pricing, real estate and finance, He recently produced two studies that are of interest to me as a value investor. The first paper has the provocative name of The Other Side of Value: Good Growth and the Gross Profitability Premium that was originally published in Journal of Financial Economics. The other is a working paper titled the Quality  Dimension of Value Investing. The papers make two discoveries that are extremely useful to us as long term value investors.

The first is that companies with a high level of profitability are as useful as price to book value when it comes to predicting future performance of their shares. However he eschewed the usual standards of profitability such as earnings per share and return on equity. He remarked in one paper that “gross profitability performs better predicting future stock returns than ROE, the profitability variable most frequently employed in earlier academic studies, because it is a better proxy for true economic profitability. In particular, the study points to the fact that accountants treat many forms of economic investment (e.g., R&D, advertisement, sales commissions, and human capital development) as expenses, so these activities lower net income but increase future expected profitability. This makes earnings a poor proxy for true expected economic profitability.” He compares group profitability to total assets an finds that those stocks with high gross profits as a percentage of assets used to produce the profits as the best way to measure profitability.

His study cover a period from July 1963 to December 2012 and finds that stock with high profitability using his measures outperform the market at a rate comparable to those that fit in to the classic deep value approach. The conclusion supports my conclusion that investors would do better focusing on the what I call true growth firms and what he calls profitable firms and classically cheap stocks based on book value. While I prefer picking one for or the other there is a suggestion n the data that investors might be best served by focusing on both strategies.

While that seems like an interesting concept and would probably work very well over the long term the two studies give us another useful idea to apply it the investing process. What would happen if you combined the profitability factor with traditional value approaches? You end up outperforming the market, straight value approaches, and true growth strategies by a pretty significant margin with lower drawdowns and fewer years of underperformance according to the study. It works on both large and small cap stocks over a long period of time. He concludes the study by saying “The basic message is that investors, in general but especially traditional value investors, leave money on the table when they ignore the quality dimension of value.

I am a geek but I am also a cynical optimist. I had to go back and look at some results for myself and how it has worked recently. I looked back one year and selected stocks that had high profitability using Mr. Novy -Marx’s profitability calculation and also traded below tangible book value. The results are incredible. The list of stocks over $100 million in market cap returned on average 45% over the past year. 79% of the profitable value stocks are higher a year later. For the microcap stocks under $100 million the average return was 54.8% and 70% of the small profitable value stocks went higher.

Naturally I then sat down and ran the screen on the current universe of stocks. I found two things to be of great interest. The first is that there are a lot fewer cheap profitable companies right now than there were this time a year ago. The second is that there are some pretty interesting names of the list worthy of further exploration by long term value investors.

That is impressive performance to say the least so I quickly built a screen that looked for cheap stock that have very high gross profits when compared to their asset base.I found some surprises when I ran the screen. Some companies you might not think of as wildly profitable actually are when you measure it by gross profitability. Keep in mind that gross profitability is simply total sales minus cost of goods sold and leaves out all the overhead and other expenses. Mr. Novy- Marx found that this was the best measure of profitability and that it has strong predicative value so that is the one we will use.

Arcelor Mittal  (MT) is  a large integrated steel company and one would not necessarily think of it as wildly profitable as they have struggled in recent years. They took a bottom line loss in 2012 but had managed to paint the bottom line black in the preceding decade. The CEO of the company recently told investors he believed the company had turned the corner and should see conditions in the steel market in 2014. When we measure it in terms of gross profitability compared to assets we find that the company has assets of $112 billion and gross profits over the last four quarters have been a little over $74 billion. That is one of the cheapest ratios in the deep value high profits screen. The stock is certainly cheap trading at less than 60% of tangible book value.

I almost feel out of my chair I when saw Radio Shack (RSH) on the list of high profitability cheap stocks. This has been one of dogs the past few years as I was way to early buying the stock in anticipation of a turnaround or takeover. The company has its issues but it also has a very high level of gross profitability with $1.4 billion of gross profits in the past year on an asset base of $1.9 billion. The stock is still cheap at 78% of book value so if they can find a way to improve the items between gross profits and the bottom line my patience may yet be rewarded.

I was further happily surprised that although my credit and fundamental models use a lot more than 1 factor the gross profitability and book value combination picked  out a lot  of the companies I have mentioned here on Real Money and own for myself as well as family and friends. Stocks like Kimball International (KBALB), Xyratex (XRTX), Real Networks (RNWK) and Sky West (SKYW) have very high gross profits as a percentage of assets.  Transworld  Entertainment  (TWMC)is one of the stocks I hate to love as I think the brick and mortar music and video stores is an industry in the way out but those stock has high gross profits as a percentage of asset and trades at just 85% of book value.

 So do a couple of companies I have had my eye on but haven’t pulled the trigger and purchased yet. Tropicana Entertainment is Carl Icahn’s casino empire based purchased out of bankruptcy a few years back. They now own casinos in Nevada, Indiana, Louisiana, Mississippi, and New Jersey as well as one in Aruba. The stock may not do much until Carl decides to sell or otherwise transform the company but it trades at just 3 times gross profits and 80% of tangible book value.

I have also been negative on for profit education stocks for several years now and Apollo Group (APOL) is one of the best shorts I have ever put on in my life. However many of the stocks in the group such as Corinthian Colleges (COCO) and Career Education (CECO) are now trading below book value and have high gross profits when compared to assets. I haven’t bought in yet as I am still a fan of the business model but the valuation is getting quite compelling.

The idea of using gross profits as a measure of profitability when selecting stock is clearly effective and should be an arrow in every investors analytical quiver. When used with value stocks it appears to work extremely well at locating stocks that can survive to thrive.

Value at Work: The Credit Crisis and Beyond

Now that we have launched the Tim Melvin Deep Value Newsletter and Banking on Profits we have seen a steady flow of subscribers and I think over time we will grow this service. I have been told that if I would be more self-promotional and dramatic about my offerings we could probably accelerate the sales process. I am just not that guy. Even if I wanted to pose in front of fancy cars with half naked women all gained as a result of my terrific trading advice I am pretty sure my wife would kill me for even suggesting it. The fact that I drive an old Jaguar that fits me like a glove and I refuse to part with might also hamper my efforts in that type of marketing.

I am not going to make shrill dramatic pronouncements about my ability to make you millions of dollars in minutes a day. Value investing does not work that way. This is a long term approach to the markets that puts margin of safety first and lets the upside take care of itself. It works but it won’t make you rich overnight either. It is a service for investors who are tired of the hype and the promises and want a way to earn solid returns over time and build their net worth the way private equity and other long term investors do it by buying cheap assets and selling them when they are fully valued.

Rather than try to convince you to subscribe to my newsletters with hype and promises I am just going to run on my track record. Listed below are comments dating back to 2006 that were recorded in my personal blog or published on Real Money, Daily Speculations or one of the other sites where my work has appeared over the years. This is value investing at work over the long run. It runs through the credit crisis when investors were losing a fortune ,the late 2008-2009 period when everyone was terrified to buy and up to 2011 when we started to feel like the worst was behind us. Judge for yourself if my approach to investing makes sense for you and is worth the small cost of an annual subscription. I think it is and hope you will join me by subscribing to the newsletters and putting deep value investing to work for you.

Good luck to us all,

Tim

12/05/2006

You might be able to sell me the fact that this market is fairly priced, providing I’ve been drinking heavily, but undervalued, I can’t see it. The bond market and the dollar are telling you it’s just not that good out there right now. We have rallied almost 12% since August without a real pause of any length and anybody who is not cautious now pretty much deserves what they get.

April 1, 2008

Even if I am dead wrong here I think the risk of being fully committed to stocks carries too many risks for the idea of a margin of safety to exist. I am willing to miss this run up to protect capital. There appears to be very little common sense being used on Wall Street these days when it comes to the overall economic and financial matters, as well as a total lack of fear. Bottoms are accompanied by fear and loathing not cheerleading and bottom predictions. The bullish arguments are laughable. Anyone who does not clearly see that the recent pullback in gold and other commodities is deleveraging by hedge funds in light of recent volatility is not looking close enough. Anyone who thinks that the bank write offs are at an end has just simply lost their mind. Yes, eventually they will write all this crap down too far and it will create an opportunity. I particularly look forward to moves like that of UBS to separate the bad assets into separate vehicles as this will create huge pools of underpriced and unloved mortgage assets that no one wants to own, reminiscent of the Texas bad Banks of the late 80s and early 90s. But that time is not now. Small community banks will thrive and benefit from the tighter credit conditions and steeper yield curve. But not yet. Patient investors will see one of the best buying opportunities of their lifetimes. But it is too soon. 

June 20,2008

Interest rates are starting to rise. I continue to think that only an illiterate deaf mute kamikaze could be aggressively long the US stock market. Of course there are lots of those around. We call them mutual fund managers.

11-20-2008

As for the market itself there is a fortune to be made over the next several years. I see companies that are profitable trading for less than 3 times E/EBITDA. I see an ever growing list of companies that sell for less than cash in the bank. We are fast approaching the depths of an ugly bear market and there is money to be made. I am buying DAR, HDNG, DOW,ASH and other like a crack addict at a rock convention.

3-14-2009

You can buy stocks like ADPT, TECD, and ESIO for less than the value of the company’s liquid assets. You can literally build a portfolio of 40-50 of these that have a good credit scores, viable businesses and excellent recovery prospects. That’s enough to make me salivate at the possibilities for gains over the next several years.

DIS trade for about two thirds of my appraisal value. That is provided we give no value at all to the film library or character rights and price the parks as raw land and put a 5 multiple on after tax earnings .DELL trade for less than two cash. HTH is a pile of cash in the hands of a proven investor in distressed banks and other financials. As a bonus the company landed a back door bank charter and will be able to bid on distressed assets and institutions. Southwest Airlines is stupid cheap, trading below tangible book value. Oil service companies like RDC and PTEN trade below net asset value at these levels. I like the idea of buying the Forest City senior debentures at a 30% YTM and what looks to be more than adequate asset coverage. Whitman has been a buyer and although struggled with everyone else last year, he is one of the best credit analysts and distressed guys around.  

1-16-2010

This is the type of trade I am hoping begins to develop in earnest in the first half of 2010. As commercial and real estate woes continue to fall I am looking for the market to wake up to the problems facing the small banks. When it starts the stock market, being the bastion of irrational insanity that it is ,the baby will go out with the bathwater. This type of activity created a situation back in the early 1990s that allowed many people to literally get rich over the next decade. When the good get sold with the bad I am looking to buy up a portfolio of small banks below tangible book value that have low loan losses and adequate reserves. As real estate improves-and it will someday- we will start to see a wave of mergers and acquisitions in the banking community. These transactions will occur at multiples of book, not at a discount. Those solid bank stock bought in this next sell off will show tremendous gains for those bold enough to step up.

  August 8,2011

The current turmoil in the markets is creating some opportunities. Any type of corporate disappointments is leading to a steep and drastic sell off. Right now foreign banks are god-awful, point of maximum pessimism cheap. I like two of the larger Japanese banks, Mitsubishi UFJ (MTU) and Mizhou (MFG). Both sell at a fraction of tangible book value and for an investor with a time horizon of five years or more should be very profitable. The same is true for Royal Bank Of Scotland (RBS). The stock is at 40% of tangible book and management has a solid plan to de-risk the balance sheet and return to profitability. As a final foreign excursion the shares of Dutch insurer Aegon (AEG) are also very, very cheap. They have repaid the Dutch government for the emergency funding and should pay a dividend again starting next year.

Here at Home Hudson City Bancshares (HCBK) have sold off sharply. After the reorganization of the balance sheet the bank should do very well going forward and at a discount from tangible book and yield of 4.40% it’s an attractive long term investment. First Bancorp (FBNC) is also cheap and replacing the TARP funding with Treasury Small Business program funding will be an enormous boost to the bottom line. Locally Shore Bancshares(SHBI) has been a severe disappointment as loan losses have continued to mount. I am going to hold that name and add Severn Savings (SVBI) at this price. I have a lot of faith in the Hyatt families’ strong desire not to lose the millions they have invested in the bank. Insiders have been buying so it’s worth a shot at one third of book value.

Force Protection (FRPT) missed earnings and is now trading at very cheap prices. This company should have sold out last year and now I think it is just a matter of time. They have a decent business but will function better as a division of a larger defense contractor. LB Foster has decent earnings but there is a product liability claim with Union Pacific involving 1.6 million rail road ties. The question becomes is that worth the 50% of market cap the stock shed? They will be a huge winner when we finally get all this crap behind us and our economy is once again growing to the point that infrastructure spending resumes. Demand for computers and other tech products may be slow but it will come back when the economy does. That makes Micron Technology (MU) a screaming long term buy at 75% of book value in my opinion.

I like the idea of buying a small package of mortgage REITS here. I would buy a little Annaly (NLY) and a little Invesco Mortgage (IVR) here with the idea of building the position over an extended period of time. You are likely to get a chance to buy lower based on conditions and volatility in the bond markets going forward. However they are cheap and the yields of 15 and 20% respectively make them worth a shot here.

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Stealing Ideas

Originally published as a series on RealMoney.com

Special offer for my Deep Value Letter at bottom

As the 13f filings piled in  like everyone else I reviewed some of the bigger ones just to see how was doing what. The Whole street was reading them at pretty much the same time so there was no information advantage to be gained but the information on the buying and selling of David Einhorn, Daniel Loeb and other heavyweights is useful background information. However the fact that Einhorn sold Microsoft (MSFT), Loeb bought Disney (DIS) and John Paulson still likes Gold is not really actionable research worthy information for me.

That’s not the case with Paul Isaac of Arbiter Partners. I find some useful investable information in his portfolio every quarter. I enjoy reading his portfolio filings and to be honest its really good for my ego. Mr. Isaac is one of the most successful hedge fund managers of the last decade and learned the craft from his father and legendary Uncle Walter Schloss. He owns and has been buying many of the same stocks that I have in the past year and that really increases my comfort level with stocks s like Calamos Asset Management (CLMS), Cowen Group (COWN), National Western Life Insurance (NWLI) and a host of small cap banks that we both own right now.

The fund opened some interesting new positions in the second quarter. Arbiter bought shares of oil and gas company Apache (APA) in the quarter. The stock has traded right around book value in recent months. The company is selling its Gulf of Mexico assets to focus on onshore operations in the  Permian/Anadarko basins. They also have operations in Egypt which is a concern for many investors right now. The large cap company is on my buy in a big decline list of stocks as the stock could easily move back over the $100 a share mark in the next couple of years.

The fund was also a buyer of the recent spin off from Brookfield Asset management (BAM). Brookfield Property Partners (BPY) was formed to hold the commercial real estate operations of Brookfield and owns shopping malls, multi-family housing, office properties and have been buying industrial properties of late. The shares trade at about 80% of the equity value as reported at the end of the second quarter and yields a little over 4%. I am a huge fan of Brookfield deals and will be reading further on this one over the weekend.

The filing also shows a large new holding in AMBAC  Financial Group (AMBC) that I suspect was gained through participation in the bankruptcy process. The bond insurance company emerged from bankruptcy back in May of this year. There is a lot of stock in the hands of distressed funds who will be looking to sell strength so I am not really interested in this one right now. The recent developments in the municipal market may make the stock more interesting should vulture fund selling push the stock back below the $20 area later this year.

The fund was also buying some of the battered technology stocks that have underperformed the market in the past few years. The fund added to its stake in Amkor Technologies (AMKR) the semiconductor equipment company in the quarter. The stock is pretty cheap trading at just around tangible book value and earnings should gain some momentum in the future driven by increasing demand form the smart phone and table computing markets. The company is working to restructure its debt load and success in this endeavor could help unlock the value of the stock in the next year.

Mr. Isaacs fund also opened a new position in shares of Emulex (ELX) the network solutions company. As the economy eventually improves and corporations and governments begin to spend on IT infrastructure again the company should see revenues and earnings begin to grow at a decent pace. The company has made acquisitions that broaden its product line and should also help drive future growth. This one is not really my cup of tea as it trades well above tangible book value but investors should note that Mr. Isaac is a lot smarter than I am.

The fund held firm on most of its small bank positions in the quarter but they did add to two banks that had outstanding earnings reports this month and showed strong improvements. Both Intervest Bancshares (IBCA) and Eastern Virginia Bancshares (EVBS) are in my trade of the decade portfolio and I am happy to see that a smart and successful fund manager is in agreement.

The reports from the larger fund managers have turned into just more market noise the past few years. However the smaller higher returning mangers like Arbiter are still a source of great ideas worthy of further investigation and investment.

 Last month as 13F filings were coming fast and furious I sat a couple aside with the intention of reviewing and reporting the information to viewers. They are two managers I respect enormously and as proof their all-around intelligence and stock picking prowess we often own many of the same stocks. As with everything else that gets set aside for later here at Chez Melvin the reports fell into the black hole of Tim’s desk and went unreported. Today I will begin to fix that.

EJF Capital was started back in 2005 by Emmanuel Friedman one of the co-founders of Freidman Billings the broker dealer and asset manager. The firm made a name of itself with its research and investment banking success in the finance and real estate fields. Mr Friedman partnered with the former head of FBR’s Alternative Investment and Wealth Management divisions Neal Wilson to start EJF and they have more than $4 billion under management.

The firm is doing some interesting stuff in both the banking and real estate fields. That of course is right in wheel house as I am a huge fan if both sectors when you can buy the securities cheap. EJF has been finding some opportunities in both that are cheap and appear to have significant long term potential.

They have been big buyers of little banks and the second quarter of the year saw the buying streak continue. EJF opened new positions in shares of Fidelity Southern (LION), Charter Financial (CHFN), VantageSouth Bancshares (VSB), Newbridge Bancorp (NBBC),Heritage Financial (HBOS), and ConnectOne Bancsshares (CNOB) as well as a few much smaller banks. Of these listed here, only Charters Tim cheap trading below book value as the rest have moved up in recent months. I continue to be big believer in the small bank trade of the decade and it appears Mr. Friedman also likes the sector.

The firm is also a big believer in the mortgage servicing story as they have large positions in leading servicers and added to several of them in the quarter. To my discredit I totally missed this story and left a lot of money on the table the past few years. They hold shares of Nationstar Mortgage Holdings, PHH Corp (PHH) and Ocwen Financial (OCN). They added to Nationstar and PHH Corporation in the quarter and they are now the largest positions at EJF Capital. At this year’s Ira Sohn Conference Steve Eisman gave a very bullish presentation of mortgage servicing companies and EJF appears to share his enthusiasm.

They bought a lot more of Colony Financial   (CLNY)in the quarter as well. The hybrid REIT is involved in several segments of the real estate market place as they have been buying troubled real estate related loans with an eye towards working them out at a profit. They have originated higher yielding loans on properties such as hotels and offices. They also invested heavily in a related company, Colony American Homes, that was created to invest in single family homes and rent them. There are a lot of moving parts to this company and I am going to have to spend a little time on it but it is cheap at 90% of tangible book value right now.

They were also big buyers of Silver Bay Real Estate (SBY) in the quarter. Silver Bay also owns and rents single family homes. Silver Bay Silver Bay currently owns single-family properties in Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas. They currently have more than 3400 homes for rent. Investors have not received the company well since its IPO as it has taken some time to get the homes rehabbed and rented but now the company is starting to see progress. The stock trades at 90% of tangible book and about 80% of managements estimate of current net asset value.  I have been watching this one closely since the IPO and am going to pull the trigger on the stock very shortly.

Small banks, real estate financing and single family homes all offer significant upside over the next decade. Tacking the holdings of investors like EJF Capital that have been earnings outstanding results in the sectors for decades is a solid way to uncover ideas. These guys are now on my must read list and if you are a long term investor they should be on yours as well.

I have one other 13F mea culpa file to share with you. This one also made its way to the bottom of the stack after being reviewed and marked up. It is also one of the probably the top 5 filings I follow every quarter simply because following this manger has made me quite a bit of money over the years. Joseph Stilwell is a value and activist investor who has been active in community bank stocks. He usually keeps a pretty low media profile but I have run across him in so many bank stocks that I have learned to pay attention to his buying and selling activity.

He is not afraid to take an activist stake, engage in proxy fights or do whatever else it takes to unlock the value of one his holdings. Since that process is going to make money for investors who get in early it makes sense to pay attention to his 13D and 13F filings. He also writes one of better letters to management when he takes an activist stake with a very blunt fix it, sell it or go home.

Looking at his latest filings Mr. Stilwell was fairly quiet during the second quarter. Smaller bank stocks were stronger in the quarter and there were not a lot of new opportunities to buy stocks at cheaper levels. The story thought out the sector continues to be improved credit conditions, weak loan demand and lower net interest margins. Most of us who invest in the space have our positions and saw little opportunity to add new names or buy more of existing stocks.

The fund did take a position in shares of Charter Financial (CHFN), joining  EJF Capital in owing shares of the recently converted thrift.  The bank has been around since 1954 and has 16 branches in Georgia, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Total assets are $1.1 billion. At first glance it looks like the bank has an asset quality program as nonperforming assets stand at more than 4%. A little deeper digging shows that most of those loans are covered by loss sharing agreements and assets not covered by such an arrangement are just 1.08% of total assets.

Like all recently converted thrifts the company has a lot of excess capital after completion of the stock offering and the equity to capital ratio right now is a little over 24. Eventually we hope to see that capital used to pay dividends and buy back shares when permitted. The stock trades at 85% of tangible book value and yields a little under 2%. As the Southeast region of the US continues to slowly recover this bank should see its stock price do very well over time.

Westbury Bancorp (WBB) is a Wisconsin based bank that also completed a thrift conversion offering earlier this year and Mr. Stilwell purchased shares in the bank. Westbury is a 12 branches bank with a little over $500 million in assets and serves the area just north of Milwaukee and is the largest bank in their service area. Post offering the bank has excess capital with equity to assets ratio of more than 15. Nonperforming assets have been steadily improving and are now just 1.72% of total assets. At the current price the stock is trading at less than 75% of book value.

Mr. Stilwell invests in these little bank stocks in much the same manner I do. The filing reports a total of 75 stocks owned and all of home are little banks. We have common ownership in about 10 tiny little banks that cannot be written about here for liquidity reason. Most of them trade at significant discounts to tangible book value and should provide enormous returns as conditions continue to improve. The difference between us is that he is willing to take an activist stake and push management o get the stock price higher, fix operating difficulties or simply sell the bank.  As passive investors we can sit back and benefit from his more aggressive approach. I probably owe him lunch after seeing several holdings improve substantially as a result of his efforts over the years.

Investors with an interest in the Trade of the Decade in small bank stocks would be well served to download and read his filings very carefully.

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Invest Like a Pelican

 My daughter was in town this past weekend for a semiannual visit so we schlepped her down to Islamorada in the northern Florida Keys. Given my aversion to frolicking I spent a lot of time on the shore just watching the collection of birds and other wildlife that are so prolific in that part of the world. I confess to a particular admiration for the noble pelican. This bird spends a great deal of its time just hanging around relaxing and observing the world. When it is hungry it flies out to where it knows there are fish, picks off the easy ones and heads back to a nice piling or tree to renewing the observation process. If a fat tasty fish should swim by his perch he will react but he is content to sit and watch the world go by for long periods of time.

Now consider the seagull. This bird seems to spend its entire life flitting form potential foods source to food source. It circles in a mad screaming frenzy looking for an opportunity to eat. It will leave one food source if it thinks the flock has found a better one. One kid on the beach with a hot dog can attract 100 birds  fighting over scraps. Once one seagull finds a potential easy source of scraps the entire flock and every flock within screeching distance heads to it with a great deal of enthusiasm. The late arrivals expend a lot of energy for very little food. It does not strike me a very productive approach to finding food.

There is a great metaphor here for the investing process. Most investors are seagulls. They flock from stock to stock, sector to sector in search of the hottest and brightest ideas. There have been numerous studies showing that individual investors do not earn as much as they statistically should because of this heart seeking behavior. They trade too much and hold for way too short a time to make a decent return on their investing dollars. All too often they follow the squawking flock into areas that are picked over and ready to fall.

We can improve our results by taking more of a bird’s eye view of the market. If you look at stock right now the flock is swarming around stocks like Tesla (TSLA) and Netflix (NFLX) that are popular and priced like lottery tickets instead of corporations. Big dividend paying blue chips have bid up to the point where it looks to me like they are trading for about twice what the business is worth in a slow growth global economy. Large REITs are priced like 2008 never happened and REITs are lining up to come public or do secondary offerings.  Restaurant stocks have shrunk portion sizes and laid off employees so successfully that investors are beating down the doors to buy the shares. When you step back and take a bird’s eye view of the markets it is easy to see the pockets of excess where the flock is fighting over scraps.

It is also easy to see where the easy pickings for long term investors are in the current market. Every stocks are priced fossil fuels will never be used again and we have found some magic solution tour energy problems. Many of them are priced at discounts to net asset. All these companies have to do is survive and their tocks price should rise sharply over the next few years. Energy demand may be relatively sluggish right now but it will pick up in the future. Like it or not natural gas and domestic oil is the path to energy independence for the United Sates and will be for several decades.

Materials and resource stocks are priced like the world is going to end. I do think it may take a while for the natural human desire to improve their lives overwhelms the incompetence of our politicians but it will eventually and there will be strong demand for things like iron Ore, pulp, paper and steel. . Again these companies just need to survive until demand pick sup to pay off handsomely for patient investors.

Net net and near net stocks are the fat fish of the stock market. When stocks trade at levels close to or less that what the entire company could be liquidated for its makes sense to pick up a few shares. They are simply too cheap not to own and history shows us that buying these stocks is usually a profitable endeavor.

Investors would do well to emulate the pelican and avoid the squawking flock of gulls fighting over scraps in their approach to investing.

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The Right Minded Investor

With all the traveling and distraction this week I didn’t get around to reading Barron’s all the way through until last night. The highlight was the interview with David Rubenstein the co-CEO of Carlysle Group (CG) the giant private equity firm. He made several interesting points in the article including the fact that one of the best opportunities is in the energy space. He told the magazine that carbon based fuels are the most efficient and inexpensive energy source we have and as long as that’s true we will burn the stuff. He doesn’t expect renewables to be a viable source in his lifetime and neither do I. Companies that explore for, produce, transport and store oil and natural gas have not really participated in the market rally of the past few years and are very cheap. Long term investors should be focusing on the group.

He also talked about opening private equity up to the general public by creating vehicles for investors along the lines of limited liquidity closed end funds with monthly or quarterly redemptions. He correctly points out that private equity usually has higher returns than public markets over time for a variety of reason. I have to say I think this is a horrid idea. Investors have proven that they will earn less than they should because they trade too much and are too vulnerable to news, emotion and price action. Private equity vehicle may return more than equity mutual funds but investors will probably enter at the wrong time and exit at an even worse time as they have done with other investments and strategies.

Investor’s do not need a private equity investment vehicle as much as they do a private equity mindset. Private equity earns higher returns because they investor for an average 6 year holding period. They buy companies no one else wants and focus on industries that are out of favor. They buy companies rather than trading electronic betting slips day in and day out. They also sell when the markets are moving up and investors are looking for merchandise to buy. The private equity mind knows that they get more than the company is worth by selling into a happy stock market.

I pay a lot of attention to what’s going on in the private equity world because we tend to be looking at the same types of stocks most of the time. Their activities also usually set a benchmark for buyout prices and that is part of our intrinsic value calculation. If you have a private equity mindset and are paying attention right no you will see that most private equity firms are selling with both hands. In fact Leon Black of industry leader Apollo (APO) recently said that his funds were “selling everything that is not nailed down.” Mr. Rubenstein’s co-CEO at Carlisle recently told the Wall Street Journal “With the world awash in liquidity, interest rates at rock bottom levels and asset prices being bid up, it has become increasingly difficult for us to compete when underwriting our investments, particularly in the U.S., to a 20% to 25% internal rate of return."

A look at recent and pending IPO activity shows that a lot of the deals are private equity cash outs. We have Hilton Hotels coming public soon as Blackstone sells back part of one of the 10 largest PE buyout deals in history. TPG and Warburg Pincus are preparing to unload some of their stake in Neiman Marcus in an initial offering. Blackstone has already unloaded part of Sea World (SEAS) and Pinnacle Foods (PF) in earlier offerings. So far this year there have been 18 private equity backed deals and the IPO calendar is crowded with PE exit offerings. The ZIRP fueled market wants to buy and the PE mindset is happy to oblige.

Individual investors should consider adopting a private equity mindset. Take a look at the market objectively and sell the stocks and sectors that have been strong the past several years and now carry premium valuations. Dividend paying blue chip stocks have been pushed beyond the boundaries of reasonable valuations and are not worth chasing here. Homebuilders have rebounded nicely and now trade above any reasonable calculation of corporate worth. Barring an economic miracle in the next six months many retailers are selling premium valuation in spite of non-premium prospects. High multiple hot story stocks have a had a good run but the time to take the money and run is before momentum shifts not after large selling wipes out your gains in a short period of time.

A private equity mindset is looking where no one else wants to go right now and considering the 5 to 7 return potential for industries like oil and gas, coal, mining and small banks. They are not chasing hot deals or market indexes and are doing far more selling than buying. There are reasons PE returns more than public equity and patience and discipline are a big part of that equation.

Bank Stocks and Alligators

This weekend my daughter was in town and we took a trip down to the Keys though the Everglades. I have never driven the entire length of Highway 41, the Tamiami Trail, and was fascinated by the idea. Along the way we took the mandatory airboat ride back up into the glades and it was quite an experience. I confess to an admiration and fascination of alligators and although I see them all the time walking the dog here in Windermere, this was alligator heaven. They were everywhere and they were enormous. I do not know if you have spent any time watching gators but they are pretty opportunistic creatures. They do not hunt as much as wait for something to be foolish enough to get closer and then they pounce. They tend to eat a lot of smaller animals that wander by but will occasionally take down bigger prey like a deer that makes a crucial mistake. If nothing comes close they are content to float around the lake or take a nice nap in the sun.

Being small bank stock investor is a lot like being an alligator. It is an opportunistic approach as we tend to wait for banks to come to us in price and value and not force the issues. We are looking for the smaller banks most of the time but in environments like 2009 and 2010 larger regionals will also get cheap enough to buy. We wait for perfect little banks with strong loan portfolios and balance sheets to be cheap enough to buy at a large discount to book value or for an activist on other influential investor to take a stake in a special situation bank that has less than perfect loan portfolios or needs capital. If nothing comes by today that is cheap enough we are quite content to just hold what we have and wait. Days and even weeks can go by without a trade. I have owned banks for years that steadily appreciated but at a slower pace than the book value grew so they never became overpriced. I have gone months without adding a new name to the portfolio.  When prey is rich on the ground in periods like 2003 to 2005 and 2008 to 2010 I can become fully invested in an instant. It is a very opportunistic and patient approach to the markets. A good friend once described small regional and community investing on a value basis as the most productive and boring way he ever found to make money in the stock market.

Perusing the bank call reports for the second quarter shows a drop in total banking assets for the second quarter in a row. The biggest drops are in trading assets and real estate owned as banks continue to dispose of troubled assets and cut back on riskier activities. Net loans and leases increased slightly in the quarter with farm loans and car loans leading the way. 1-4 family mortgage and junior lien lending continues to decline as does home equity loans. Commercial and industrial loans as a percentage of total loans are at a very high level of 20.1%. Big banks are rushing to make these loans while ignoring mortgage loans to the greatest degree possible. This bears watching. So does smaller banks exposure to muni bonds in the aftermath of the Detroit bankruptcy as they have long been a safe haven for smaller banks looking for safer investment securities.

Small banks really are the trade of the decade. These quiet little almost boring  stocks can make you a fortune. In the aftermath of the S&L crisis the bank stock indexes rose roughly 10 fold over the next decade and I see no reason the same won't happen this time as banks are ripe for consolidation at current levels.

Check out my new bank stock newsletter for bank stocks poised to outperform :

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